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Posted on 02/07/2026 7:54:48 PM PST by lightman
Gov. Josh Shapiro is the heavy favorite to win the 2026 governor’s race in Pennsylvania.
Don’t take this writer’s word for it.
That’s the word both from people who rate political races for a living, and people who are trying to make a buck by divining the future.
Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity and her Republican allies understand those odds, and the various tactical disadvantages they’re up against.
But right now, those in and around the state Republican Committee’s winter meeting in Harrisburg insisted this weekend, they’ve got two things that are worth building a long-shot campaign around: Unity and time.
Start with unity.
In 2022, state Sen. Doug Mastriano used his grassroots folk hero status to rocket past a large, fractured group of primary opponents.
What ensued was a campaign that certainly had movement qualities, but had trouble making enough converts - even within elements of the GOP - to pose a serious threat to Shapiro.
In this cycle, party leaders effectively coalesced behind Garrity early. The state committee endorsed her in September, and she is expected to be unopposed in the spring primary.
That means she can focus everything on the general election campaign.
Unlike for Mastriano and 2018 GOP nominee Scott Wagner in 2018, there are not large blocks within the party that, for various reasons, are upset or tuned out.
Garrity supporters also tout her abilities as a campaigner.
Garrity, they like to point out, started her own electoral career with an upset.
The Bradford County businesswoman defeated incumbent Treasurer Joe Torsella - like Shapiro, a Democrat from the vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs - in 2020.
“She is so sharp,“ said an admiring Kaytee Isley, a state Republican Committee member from Cumberland County who used to work in Garrity’s Treasury Office before winning election as Cumberland County’s treasurer in 2023.
“She knows all the issues. She is quick on her feet. And she is not afraid.”
And then, there is time.
Early polls on the governor’s race show Shapiro - who along with Lt. Gov. Austin Davis received the state Democratic Party committee’s endorsement for a second term Saturday - holds a high double-digits percentage point lead now.
But Garrity supporters know they actually don’t have to starting winning any polls until, really late October, early November.
All they have to do now is start working a process that shows her doing better this spring than she’s doing this winter.
And then a little bit better again in the summer.
If the margins improve enough from where they are today, consultants say, Garrity has a chance to get more help from the full GOP donor base and groups like the Republican Governors Association, and the momentum can build from there.
They do see some viable lines of attack.
Garrity, they say, is expected to put Shapiro on blast this year for his handling of sexual harassment charges against former top legislative aide Mike Vereb.
Vereb resigned in September 2023, three weeks after Shapiro’s administration quietly agreed to pay $295,000 to settle claims from a colleague who said he’d made repeated sexual advances toward her and often spoken lewdly about her, other staff members, and a female state senator.
Shapiro’s administration has said little about the issue or the governor’s role in handling it, describing Vereb’s departure as a private personnel matter while maintaining it “takes allegations of discrimination and harassment seriously.”
Garrity is also eager to press the case that by the time Shapiro is sworn in for a second term, he will be deeply engrossed in running for president.
Jason Richey, Garrity’s lieutenant governor pick, picked up that cudgel Saturday and gave it a couple of practice swings.
“Josh Shapiro is not waking up every morning asking himself: ‘How do I improve the life of Pennsylvanians?’ Richey said.
“No. He is waking up each and every day thinking about how he’ll run for president, and how he’ll get those voters out in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“For him, Pennsylvania is a stepping stone. For us, Pennsylvania is home.”
Garrity and Richey believe Shapiro, even though he has spent most of his career winning elections in purple districts or a purple state, has not had his feet properly held to the fire.
They vowed Saturday to do that.
Shapiro’s campaign, in response Saturday, said bring it on.
“Governor Shapiro has an exemplary record to run on — cutting taxes, funding law enforcement, investing in education, delivering for our farmers, protecting our freedoms and our democracy, and so much more,“ said campaign spokesman Manuel Bonder.
“The Pennsylvania Republican ticket is led by a candidate who celebrates higher costs on working families, pushed for massive healthcare cuts, opposed a woman’s right to choose, and stands 100% in lockstep with the chaos, cruelty, and corruption of Donald Trump. The contrast in this race will be incredibly clear — and the Governor will be working hard for every vote as he always has. We’ll see them out there.”
For the Republicans, staying competitive at the top is important because of all the other things the GOP wants to accomplish this year.
Goal No. 1?
Keep majority control of the Pennsylvania Senate, where Republicans hold a 27-23 edge now.
This is seen as vital because if Shapiro does win re-election, and Democrats retain their slim majority in the state House of Representatives, a GOP Senate majority would be the only thing interrupting a Democratic trifecta: Same party control of the governor’s office, House and Senate.
This feels achievable to the GOP because of the relative popularity of the incumbents in the party’s most-vulnerable seats, plus the real possibility of retaking a Lancaster-County seat Democrats won in a special election last year.
Shapiro, at the Democratic meeting, also promised an aggressive campaign aimed at delivering Democratic wins up and down the ballot.
If Democrats win the Senate, he noted, he can make progress on pieces of his agenda that have stalled under GOP control, like raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour, legalizing marijuana for recreational use, and expanding the ability of child sex abuse victims to bring civil cases against their accusers as adults.
Goal No. 2 for the Republicans?
Re-electing the most vulnerable GOP members of Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation: U.S. Reps. Rob Bresnahan in the Scranton area and Ryan McKenzie in the Lehigh Valley, both of whom flipped Democrat-held seats in 2024; and Scott Perry in south central Pennsylvania.
In a battle for a U.S. House majority that could come down to two or three seats, holding those districts would be big for Republicans nationally.
Flipping them, conversely, could get the Democrats over the top.
Outside this weekend’s meeting, some Republican leaders said privately if they could get those things accomplished - given the national mood right now - they’d take it.
But others insist there is also real hope for seizing the Pennsylvania House, which Democrats have held by a 102-101 margin since a de-gerrymandered district map took effect with the 2022 election cycle.
The governor’s office, to most Republicans, seems like the biggest reach.
Shapiro has a massive fundraising advantage, and has consistently maintained job approval ratings at or above all previous governors that won second terms.
And, there is that traditional mid-term slump for the party that controls the White House.
Which brings us back to time.
Many Democrats would be happy if Election Day 2026 were today.
Garrity says Shapiro should return over $2M from billionaire mentioned 2.6K times in Epstein filesFeb. 3, 2026, 5:47 p.m.
LinkedIn co-founder who traveled to Jeffrey Epstein properties donated big to Gov. ShapiroFeb. 3, 2026, 5:15 a.m.
But while Garrity and other Republicans hammer home the need for GOP fiscal discipline in Harrisburg, promise to take fuller advantage of Pennsylvania’s energy resources and champion school choice, they will also hope for some shifts in the national mood over the next nine months.
“I mean, a couple of years ago, there was going to be this huge red wave (for Republicans) and then Roe v. Wade was overturned and the tables got turned,” state House Republican Leader Jesse Topper, of Bedford County, said Saturday.
“You never know what’s going to happen.”
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Republicans have no chance in PA. They only had the Trump brand to run on in 2024. That bought them a new Republican Senator, which is great, but the GOP is lame in the state. Shapiro will win in a landslide.
The republican leadership in PA are a bunch of A$$**es. Resurrect the Republicans for Shapiro group. i think Bartos was one of em. Garrity is a good candidate. Republish the Shapiro phony suicide ruling and non investigation of the woman that stabbed herself in the back . Going back on his promise for school choice. what tax did he cut?
They only have to rein in the Philadelphia machine to win statewide offices. Fast Eddy Rendell was a master at finding more votes than voters.
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