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Posted on 02/04/2026 10:07:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was granted the power to see the future, but cursed so that no one would believe her. She warned of disaster repeatedly, only to be ignored until tragedy struck. Today, the United States has its own modern-day Cassandras, and once again our warnings are being dismissed.
Knowledgeable experts have cautioned that our nation’s fiscal path is unsustainable. Federal budget documents themselves have repeatedly sounded the alarm. Credit rating agencies have raised increasingly serious concerns. Despite these warnings, Washington continues to behave as though time is unlimited and there are no consequences to continuing to ignore the problem.
Now something far more troubling has occurred. The open markets have begun issuing their own warning.
Markets are not political. Markets do not vote, posture, or engage in wishful thinking. Markets respond only to risk and reality. When markets move in unusual and persistent ways, they are signaling deep concern about America’s fiscal future.
Gold and silver prices recently surged to historic levels, with gold exceeding $5,100 per ounce and silver surpassing $110. These moves are not driven by speculation alone. They reflect a flight to safety and a growing desire to hedge against inflation and currency risk. When investors move into precious metals, they are making a statement. They are choosing tangible assets over confidence in government balance sheets. They are signaling concern about the long-term stability of the dollar and the sustainability of U.S. debt.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
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Look at the Bond markets are sending similar signals. Short-term Treasury rates, which are largely influenced by the Federal Reserve, have declined over the past year. Long-term rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury that is determined by market forces, have moved higher.
Under normal conditions, those rates would move together. Their divergence indicates rising concern about long-term fiscal risk.
Then there’s the USD. The dollar has weakened against major currencies, including the euro over the past year. Currency movements of this scale do not occur randomly.
They reflect changing perceptions of strength and stability.
The United States is rapidly running out of fiscal space. For decades, lawmakers have relied on borrowing to postpone difficult decisions. When problems arose, Washington spent more.
When deficits widened, borrowing expanded. That approach worked only because global confidence in American debt remained strong. That confidence is now being tested.
Cassandra should have bet on the chariot races.
FDR's gold confiscation precedent suggests that in any real economic emergency such as a currency collapse, you won't be.
“Markets do not vote, posture, or engage in wishful thinking. “ In the MACRO big picture, yes. But in the short run we invest in a lot of “tulips”.
When it was popular, Fortune 500 invested in DEI. Now some base their decisions on being pro-Trump or anti-Trump. Indeed part of the EU activity is purely TDS and not based on markets.
The smart investor has 2 choices:
1) Play the long game and ignore the short term noise
2) Find a way to profit from those making stupid short term decisions.
Of course, this involves both knowledge and risk. What is the future of AI? When does Nvidia valuation become a tulip? How much more will online shopping cut into Bricks & Mortar? And many more questions/risks exist.
At this point, is the dollar worthy of trust?
If it can’t hold its own against the Euro, then I’m not so sure.
US interest rates have slowly declined over the past year.
I would do the same now, if I had any gold and silver.
Hmmm...risk is often perception, especially in stocks. Risk perception can be biased with political talking heads and their doom/gloom outlook (or opposite).
Tariffs are an example, the world was going to end. The stock market took a huge dip, then immediately recovered and rose more when the actual outcomes weren’t as radical as feared.
> Play the long game and ignore the short term noise <
I spent half my life trying to analyze the short term noise. Now I am convinced that the best strategy is to buy a broadly diversified, low cost mutual fund. Then contribute to it every month. Set it, and forget it.
And the younger you are, the more that strategy is correct.
I couldn’t agree more!
It’s perfect for anyone with 20+ years on their horizon.
Certainly less stressful than playing whack-a-mole.
If you have 5 years or less on your horizon, you have to at least rotate sectors and capitalization levels.
The retired are looking for safety and income.
The writer is clearly looking out the side windows and the back windows of the car.
> The retired are looking for safety and income. <
Yep. And that includes me. There is a formula.
Percentage in stocks = 100 - your age
That formula might be too simplistic. And especially so if the person doesn’t have much of a cushion, and needs to take a bit of risk.
But for others (including me), it works just fine.
Markets are not Political?
Granted.
But what we have in many parts of the word economy are not markets. They are fabricated Grifting Halls.
“...Washington continues to behave as though time is unlimited and there are no consequences to continuing to ignore the problem.”
Well, ya know, ya go with what’s always worked for ya in the past! *SPIT*
When is my silver going to 300? I was told to sell all and buy in at 120.
There is a lot to debate about America’s fiscal state but one thing is true. The country has structural budget deficits that neither party has the desire or will to address. The debt being piled up is harming the country. The federal government pays $880 billion dollars in interest alone on the debt. Imagine what it could pay for in programs for that amount or, better yet, the tax cut that it could give for that amount. But it won’t. And the interest component of the debt will grow larger and larger. And there is more and more evidence that Welfare State transfer payment programs don’t work and are rife with fraud on a scale that no one previously imagined. But no one will seriously propose cutting spending. Its easier to not do anything and then retire and make it the next generation’s problem.
> When is my silver going to 300? <
Last week I read an article predicting that silver would soon drop to $40 an ounce.
And another predicting that silver would soon hit $200 an ounce.
This reminds me of something that Jack Bogle (the founder of the Vanguard funds) once humorously said. In the short term, “nobody knows nothing”.
And Nvidia's PEG (per nasdaq.com) is .88 vs Walmart at 4.43.
Hardly a tulip.
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