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Posted on 12/03/2025 12:44:41 AM PST by AdmSmith
A Russian military victory in Ukraine would cost Europe twice as much as a Ukrainian victory, according to a new study by Corisk and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs published on Nov. 25.
Under the first scenario proposed by the researchers, Moscow's forces would continue their incremental advance and push westward toward the Dnipro River. As a result of their military victories, the Kremlin would force Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on terms beneficial to Moscow. According to the report, such an outcome would amount to a Russian partial victory, giving the Kremlin influence over Ukraine's political and economic orientation, including EU and NATO membership. The study further warned that Ukraine could lose half its territory, face long-term political destabilization, and risk democratic backsliding — or even state failure. Millions more Ukrainians — an estimated 6 to 11 million — could flee toward Europe, generating 524-952 billion euros ($606 billion - 1.1 trillion) in refugee-related expenses over four years.
Additional defense spending to reinforce NATO's eastern flank would raise Europe's total costs under Scenario 1 to €1.2-€1.6 trillion ($1.4-1.8 trillion). Following a negotiated settlement to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia could then redirect military resources toward Moldova, the Baltic states, or the Nordic region, the report said. European governments would need to rapidly build up its defenses and deterrence in the Baltics and Arctic, while simultaneously dealing with rising political strain from migration and domestic polarization.
Under a second scenario — or a Ukrainian victory — the cost associated would be significantly less for Europe, the researchers found. With the right level of support, Ukraine could rebuild superior combat power — similar to its successful 2022 counter offensives — and begin retaking occupied territory. In this scenario, Ukraine's battlefield momentum would force Russia into peace talks that safeguard Kyiv's vital interests. To facilitate victory, Ukraine would require a rapid influx of military equipment. This would include "1,500-2,500 battle tanks and 2,000-3,000 artillery systems over one or two years... Ukraine will also need up to 8 million drones of all types, air defense, and strategic missile systems."
If these capabilities are delivered, the report argued, Ukraine could stop Russian advances, reclaim strategically important areas, and restore conditions for political normalization and economic recovery. A Ukrainian partial victory would also accelerate EU integration, encourage refugee returns, and reduce country-risk premiums for investors. Europe's estimated cost for enabling such an outcome — including military aid, industrial support, and reduced refugee burdens — totals 522–838 billion euros ($605-$972 billion) over four years, roughly half the cost of a Russian victory. Confiscation of frozen Russian assets could further reduce European expenses by up to 50 percent.
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>The Kyiv Independent
LOL
“”1,500-2,500 battle tanks and 2,000-3,000 artillery systems over one or two years... Ukraine will also need up to 8 million drones of all types, air defense, and strategic missile systems.””
A ridiculous fantasy. Europe doesn’t have that to spare, and Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower to use all that stuff. where are they gonna get 1,500 to 2,000 tank crews and 2,000 to 3,000 artillery crews? and the operators for 8 million drones?
If this article is intended to get me to work for a Ukrainian victory at any cost, it failed. If anything, it makes me want the Russians to win, so the Europeans are forced to dismantle their welfare states.
ping
Europe's elites also indulged in the happy but false assumption that the US would always provide security from Russian aggression. Now Europe is having to calculate the high costs of defense from Russia versus keeping Russia bogged down fighting in Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, the accounting sows that keeping Ukraine in the fight is much cheaper.
This is the fundamental logic of alliances and proxy wars. Does it mean that Europe will do what it takes to keep Ukraine going as an independent nation? Probably not. The most likely course of events seems to be that Ukraine fragments under Russian aggression, but with Russia in continuing economic and military decline.
Five or ten years from now, NATO will be a dead letter, the EU near collapse, and Poland will be Europe's primary military land power. A post-Putin Russia will be begging for sanctions relief and for help keeping China from retaking Vladivostok. Ukrainian resistance to Russia will continue in one form or another.
Studies like this always presume infinite supply of more or less anything.
Given the scarcity of neodymium magnets, why would the study presume that all of those drones that run on electric motors could be built regardless of price?
I read an article about how sheep should be allowed to graze freely in the forest in the Wolfe Gorging Daily News.
Good, he's a thief
“1,500-2,500 battle tanks”
Battle tanks as we know them would not survive the Russian equivalent of Javelins.
The source for this article is so funny that the article itself is not worth the time to read it. The title wreaks of propaganda.
“8 million drones of all type”
At $2,000 per offensive weapon drone, that would be $16 billion.
That would probably be feasible.
As for Russian drone defense, that would require an anti-drone system about every 500 feet. With front line length of 500 miles, that would be 5,000 anti-drone gun systems. At a cost of $100,000 each, the anti-drone gun systems would run $500 million. Double that to $1 billion for combat losses.
Zelensky needs to visit the Pentagon.
US military planners need to tell him what they would do if they were in the shoes of the Russian brass.
“Given the scarcity of neodymium magnets, why would the study presume that all of those drones that run on electric motors could be built regardless of price?”
There are lots of EVs in Norway.
The Chinese will happily sell EVs to Europe.
“territory”
Putin needs to get told that even if he is able to snatch all of Donetsk Oblast militarily, the parts he takes will be in ruins.
Russia will have to pay rebuilding all of built-up parts of Donetsk Oblast it takes in the future.
It’s simpler, easier and cheaper in both rubles and Russian lives to relocate and financially compensate the pro-Russian Federation people in the yet to be conquered areas than to fight on.
Europe could benefit by lower fuel costs with petroleum piped in from Russia.
So you’re saying Ukraine has a chance?
“According to the report, such an outcome would amount to a Russian partial victory, giving the Kremlin influence over Ukraine’s political and economic orientation, including EU and NATO membership.”
NATO membership is a ‘Nyet’. Russia will allow EU membership.
“The study further warned that Ukraine could lose half its territory, face long-term political destabilization, and risk democratic backsliding — or even state failure.”
It may lose all its territory if a peace deal can’t be put through.
“Risk democratic backsliding” is built-in to thinking east of the EU and evidently present in the West too. Effective disenfranchisement via people importation is an ongoing process in the West.
“Millions more Ukrainians — an estimated 6 to 11 million — could flee toward Europe, generating 524-952 billion euros ($606 billion - 1.1 trillion) in refugee-related expenses over four years.”
Financial mooching by foreigners has never appeared to seriously worry European leftist leaders in the past.
An influx of Caucasians to the EU may be of great concern.
"Could" appears six times in the short text, using a Norwegian 'think tank' as their source, and still "could." Speculation is not news.
One observes that the thread to which you posted so regularly for a couple of years has been pulled. Why could that be?
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