Latest estimate: 4.6 percent — June 02, 2025 (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP estimate Q2 2025)

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ^ | 02-Jun-2025 | GDPNow

[qam1]

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent.

[qam1]

Wow! If these numbers hold or continue to go up then those booms you hear in July won't be fireworks, but Liberal's heads exploding.

I look forward to them trying to down play them, GDP UNEXPECTEDLY rose 5%, but tariffs....

[Seaplaner]

If the final number is even close to that, the Trump-hating WSJ might have a little “splanin’” to do, eh?

[Uncle Miltie]

Positively roaring!

[Seaplaner]

Couple this estimate with the apparently low inflation numbers...

[nathanbedford]

As you say "if these numbers hold up or continue to go up"-"wow"

Short-term: it should mean that the bond vigilantes will hold off crashing the bond market thus avoiding a potential economic calamity.

Short-term: Donald Trump will have increased his political capital and might be more successful in pressing Congress to enact DOGE cuts. On the other hand, there will be pushback arguing that cuts are less necessary to cut the deficit.

Short to Medium-term: Donald Trump should find increasing congressional support for tariffs to restore American manufacturing to the extent required by adverse court rulings.

Medium term: prospects for retaining or even increasing Republican control of House and Senate are improved.

[Owen]

The GDPNow model doesn’t have a great record, but regardless of that, this is following a -0.3% negative quarter, and this bounce is likely for the same reason — imports.

The import surge to get products in before tariffs is what drove things negative (GDP = C + G + I + (exports - imports)). What that surge reversing (no need to import, you already did and parked the stuff in warehouses) you were likely to get a bounce from the negative quarter.

But 4% is not in the cards. Inflation will kill it (it’s real GDP, not nominal GDP).

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Wow, indeed. Those are HUGE jumps in forecast from May 30 to June 2.

[Vendome]

[Jumper]

We are going to need more that that to offset the coming reversionary pressures. We are battling the fallout still of 2007, and we are cranking up the QE printing press. Trump will follow the Biden recipe and devalue the USD 25% or possibly more to try and get a handle on the debt. Between the bond markets 2 yr yield forecasts, and whiplash from more inflationary pressure, Trump has his hands full.

The US BTC Reserve is a positive step. This will allow the US to hedge having something of value on the balance that has the potential to double the rate of inflation.

The beautiful thing about Bitcoin is that as long as it is priced in dollars, dollars have a place. The more each BTC is worth, the more money in supply or printed will be parked as an asset. Different from Gold, the USG could actually pay tax returns in BTC swap currency electronically - digital gold.

[Old West Conservative]

Tagline: Am a huge William Halsey fan but one of the reasons why I always see God’s subtle hand helping the USA along was Admiral Halsey’s skin irritation that sidelined him for the Battle of Midway.

The sneaky flank attack approach that Admirals Raymond Spruance and Jack Fletcher cooked up for Midway was just the recipe to jump the numerically superior Japanese carrier forces at Midway and send all four of Japan’s carriers to the bottom of the Pacific in a matter of hours.

As fantastic as Halsey was, his charge-ahead inclinations worked better in spots such as Guadalcanal and elsewhere.

[Sarah Barracuda]

The left will ignore it or make up lies as usual

[nathanbedford]

I generally agree with your assessment of Admiral Halsey.

History will not entirely forget Admiral Nimitz asking, "where is Halsey?"

But I chose to quote him because of a family relationship to service on Enterprise from before Pearl Harbor through Okinawa. When Pearl Harbor was hit, Halsey and Enterprise were thankfully away so escaped probable sinking. These early days of the Pacific war were desperate times. At one point it was Enterprise and Halsey upon which we focused our hopes. Neither disappointed. It was his resolution in desperate days which I remember and the courage of the crew on Enterprise.

His order, "attack, repeat, attack" epitomizes the man and serves as good advice in naval warfare-(no Captain can go wrong laying his ship next to the enemy)-and in politics.

[A_Former_Democrat]

Nonetheless that will squash any nonsense about recession

[Bobbyvotes]

Golden era is indeed upon us, thanks to PDJT.

[Bobbyvotes]

BTC doubled in value in just over a year. I would not be surprised to see a correction during next 12 months. It has fluctuated wildly during last few years.

[abb]

unexpected...

[cymbeline]

“Couple this estimate with the apparently low inflation numbers...”

Should they also be coupled with the growth of debt?

[central_va]

Stuff your globalist claptrap.

[Jumper]

If you follow BTC and have heard the news from the Las Vagas BTC Confernce; the money poised to pour into BTC will more than double the current valuations.

[abb]

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/deutsche-bank-raises-p-500-135348719.html

Deutsche Bank raises S&P 500 forecast as tariff fears ease

Tue, June 3, 2025 at 3:53 PM GMT+2