Posted on 04/30/2025 7:34:39 PM PDT by USA-FRANCE
The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, raising the question: Are we in a recession? Economic growth, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product, has to be negative for more than one quarter for a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonprofit research group that officially calls recessions. According to the NBER: "A recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months."
The NBER has not yet declared a recession. The current downturn also hasn't met an unofficial definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, economists' comments on Wednesday's GDP figures were full of speculation about a possible recession ahead.
Is a Recession Ahead? Wednesday's report was a stark contrast to the beginning of the year, when the economy grew steadily with no end to the expansion in sight. Since then, President Donald Trump's tariffs have shaken up financial markets, squashed consumer confidence, and raised the possibility of a serious economic downturn ahead.
While the NBER hasn't declared a recession, it doesn't necessarily mean we aren't at the beginning of one. The bureau only calls recessions months after the fact, when backward-looking data indicates one has begun.
(Excerpt) Read more at investopedia.com ...
Has nothing to do with Trump. It was Biden’s hangover in the 1st quarter. Trump didn’t take over until late Jan. It’s a minor blip anyway.
Now President Trump comes in and they begin cutting billions in wasteful government spending and holding off on aid to Ukraine. Is there an expert out there who can tell me if I am right?
1st Quarter is Jan/Feb/March.
It would take two quarters in a row to signal a recession thogh hopefully we aren’t in one now.
My economy shrank during Braindeads “administration “ due to massive inflation.
We never even came out of the 2007-8 mess. Everything has been going down the drain for years now.
Hi
Government spending for the last 4 quarters has been 25% of GDP.
With printed money (i.e. no increase in productivity).
I wouldn’t be surprised if the second quarter is slightly negative (-.02%).
5.56mm
In contrast to what I gave OP, you get the Gold Star!
There were periods during the Biden days when the US economy met the textbook definition of a recession. Naturally, the Biden administration denied there ever was a recession.
I read about a budget that ends up at 50t.
Trump has cut off the Democrat patronage, fraud and corruption machine which has grown to become such a huge part of the governments budget that cuts have a significant macro economic impact
Your comment was exactly what Trump said. It is Biden’s parting blunders. It takes several months of a new administration to be the cause of the negative growth. Trump knows.
An endless parade of “Trump bad” propaganda with people standing by, willing to immediately post it! “We’re doom”.....”What will happen to us” We’ll starve to death”...
The private sector expanded, the govt sector contracted more, thanks to DOGE.
Is there an expert out there who can tell me if I am right?
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The expert is the definition.
GDP = (C)onsumption + (G)overnment Spending + (I)nvestment +
(Exports - Imports)
That’s the equation. People will fall all over themselves to say this should not be or that should not be, but that’s the equation and that’s how it is measured.
The big surge in imports to front run tariffs, as one can see in the equation, will reduce GDP and did so. A reduction in G will too, but it is really small potatoes in that 121,000 probationary employees were erased and since they are probationary and new, call it $64K/yr salary and benefits. For just the quarter, it’s only a couple of billion, out of $20Trillion of GDP.
The import surge was more compelling, and of course that is going to 100% reverse next quarter as tariffs discourage imports.
(FYI sportsfans, interest on the national debt is part of G. So if interest rates rise, that, in bizarre fashion, adds to GDP)
An endless parade of “Trump bad” propaganda with people standing by, willing to immediately post it! “We’re doom”.....”What will happen to us” We’ll starve to death”...
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Unless massive economic pain happens, most of this noise will fall on deaf ears.
“There they go again” will be the response from people sick of the crap media they’ve read their whole lifetime.
US companies surged their import buying in anticipation of tariffs as they transition to domestic manufacturing increase and locating domestic suppliers. This surge is subtracted from GDP. Smart. Economy still solid. Inflation way down.
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