Posted on 11/01/2024 10:52:20 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
More polling suggests the presidential race in Pennsylvania will be every bit as close as it was in 2016, when Donald Trump won, and in 2020, when he lost.
But a key piece of data points to a flaw in the model and potential attrition that could hamper Kamala Harris’ hopes to pick up 19 electoral votes and score a promotion when votes are counted next week.
The Suffolk University-USA Today survey of 500 likely voters shows the race couldn’t be tighter. Harris and Trump pick up exactly 243 voters each; with rounding, they’re tied at 49%. Nine voters refused to answer or claimed to be undecided, and five voters were split between Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian hopeful Chase Oliver.
But the pollsters appear to have oversampled Biden voters from four years ago, raising questions about how close the race actually is given that Scranton Joe only ended up with a 1.17-point win.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
No worries. Some Freepers here have almost guaranteed PA for Trump and the election. What could possibly go wrong?
“survey of 500 likely voters shows the race couldn’t be tighter”
I get the distinct impression that many news outlets are treating this election like it’s good for nothing more than entertainment value.....and God forbid, by the time the commie left gets around to censoring them it’ll be too late.
“But the pollsters appear to have oversampled Biden voters from four years ago, raising questions about how close the race actually is given that Scranton Joe only ended up with a 1.17-point win.”
This is exactly what 538 is accusing pollsters of doing this time around.
500 likely voters..................worthless.........at this
point, 1000+ should be minimum............
Ladies and gentlemen, in Pennsylvania….
….in 2016, Trump beat Hillary by 0.72% of the vote, or 44,284 counted votes.
…..in 2016 Trump lost to Biden by 1.18% of the vote, or 82,166 counted votes out of 6.9MM counted votes.
Flip half of those votes, and the winner flips.
Forget about polling….it will be close.
and then there’s always the FReepers that have thrown in the towel and feel the need to comment about it one way or another
I remember seeing video in 2020 of cnn tracking vote totals and right on tv Trumps totals would drop and those exact number of votes would transfer to biden.....I saw it with my own eyes and have never heard an explanation.
You really are a cat lady aren’t you?
Personally don’t think you should use “pass the Pepto” if it replaces Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition. 😉
Nate Silver in bashing the pollsters says a lot of people are not even telling the truth about how they voted after early voting.
Trump is going for this, win PA, NC, GA, and Arizona, win the presidency, that simple
Agreed. It is tempting to give someone like that the boot from this site for the constant negative and petty tone of their remarks, but after a while, you come to expect it from them and know to simply ignore.
I don’t blame them................
I agree, look at NPR, showing Harris up 3 in Michigan and Wisconsin, lets say you as a conservative get a phone call, “Hey this is NPR, I want to poll you” what do you say..F OFF and hang up
I am calling PA for President Trump +5.
Why?
Kamala is half a million mail in ballots short of where she needs to be to break even.
The insiders all know this.
This person has been talking down Republican election chances on here every year since the George W Bush election.
Amen
The key is turnout, needs to be low in Philly and Pittsburg.
And the Dems lost 400k in registered voters ince 2020.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.