Posted on 10/12/2024 8:44:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I recently wrote that the 2024 election won't be that close. Part of my thinking was that pollsters have yet to solve their "Trump problem."
The pollsters have tried different methodologies, different algorithms. and different ways to contact voters, all seeking to address the "missing Trump voters" that fail to show up in their polls but end up voting by election day.
Everyone has their own theory about how to measure Trump's support but the bottom line is that we won't know how successful or unsuccessful the pollsters are until the voters are counted.
That's going to take a while, considering all the legal challenges from both sides that will be made.
"There are fundamentals in question that no one can answer until Election Day," said pollster Frank Luntz.
But we can get an idea of where Trump might stand by looking at polls from the 2016 and 2020 races.
In 2016, with three weeks to go before election day, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by six percentage points. In 2020, he trailed Joe Biden by 10 points. In 2016, Trump still lost the popular vote by about 2% but won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan by 60,000 votes and won the presidency. In 2020, he lost the popular vote by less than 5% but lost the same three states in the Electoral College by about 80,000 votes.
That's how badly the pollsters are measuring Trump support.
Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia Center for Politics Director and a crackerjack pollster of long standing, Sabato says he has "spoken with numerous pollsters who have attempted to refine their methods, but they still don’t know if they’ve fully solved the issue of polling accuracy," according to the Daily Caller.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
The last one wasn’t close. It was stolen.
My MAGA theme music:
The Big Country sound track (YouTube)
And:
"Victory at Sea" (1952) - Richard Rodgers (YouTube)
4 and 5
The Big Country soundtrack. One of my favorites.
Like that one too.
bttt
Yeah.
It’s taken almost 4 years of vicious prosecutions, constant insistence that they din’ do nuffin, endless babblespeak about “baseless allegations” and “debunked conspiracy theories”, and mindless repetition of “he lost by xxx thousand votes” to get to the point where they can just blithely say he lost…but it still ain’t true.
He won 2020 in a landslide, and they committed the biggest damn fraud in American history.
And they’re planning on doing it again in 3 weeks. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. Still gonna try.
“The last one wasn’t close. It was stolen.”
BTTT
We have to make this one Too Big To Rig.
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