Posted on 10/12/2024 5:22:20 PM PDT by lasereye
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is pulling ahead in Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state, according to a recent poll from The New York Times/Siena College, which is ranked by FiveThirtyEight as the most reliable pollster in the United States.
The winner of Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral votes—more than any other swing state—could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in the Keystone State found Harris leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, by 3 percentage points.
The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10 and published on Saturday, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Trump's 47 percent. However, Harris' lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. In addition, the poll reported that 3 percent of respondents didn't know who they supported or refused to answer.
Harris leads among women, with 58 percent backing her compared to 40 percent for Trump. She holds an overwhelming lead among Black voters, 81 percent to Trump's 16 percent, according to the poll.
FiveThirtyEight evaluates pollsters based on their historical accuracy and methodological transparency, awarding the Times/Siena College 3 out of 3 stars.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris' and Trump's campaign for comment via email on Saturday.
Recent polls in the battleground state show a near deadlock between Harris and Trump, with any lead falling within the margin of error.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters found Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point, with 49 percent of respondents backing Trump and 48 percent supporting Harris. The poll, conducted between October 5 and 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Was the poll counting more Rats as they usually do. Very easy to twist a poll in any direction.
Midterms are NOT like Presidential elections. Plus, Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022. Trump is our get out the vote machine. He’s our energizer bunny. Before Kamala completes her next a sentence, Trump’s done two appearances, an interview, and stopped at a family restaurant for some Chicago style deep dish pizza.
This poll was 18th on a list of 27 in the 2020 cycle.
They were middle of the pack pollster in 2020. Off 5.5 points. Also they had the recall vote in this PA poll, Biden +8. When the actual was Biden +1. So they basically weighted this poll, 7 points toward Harris because they used an incorrect Recall Vote weighting. NYT/Sienna been doing that this whole cycle. They have been criticized for it by other pollsters, but basically don’t care.
is pulling ahead in Pennsylvania, they mean giving head
BIG crowd in Coachella CA for PDJT this afternoon. BIG crowd in Reno last night.
Comrade Harris leads in Pa Sure thing Go away not a chance. Scott Pressler registered tens of thousands of voters that don’t show up on any list. Pa Hispanics and Blacks are turning away from Democrats and Pa has sizable Catholic population that will make their feelings toward the most anti Catholic ticket in 100 years.
The stupid can not be that strong but the STEAL probably is, our country is lost?
I’d love to know the sample size of demoRATS in that “survey”!
🤣🤣🤣
HOLY crap 857 people polled out of a population of 12 million
Unlike the emphatic Rats, doubtful Trump voters are likely to share their enthusiasm with pollsters
By what margin did this polling firm underestimate DJT’s vote margin in 2020? How about 2016?
Kamala has to win Pennsylvania by three to win Pennsylvania.
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