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Kamala Harris Gets Good News in Must-Win State From Most Accurate Pollster
Newsweek ^ | OCT 12, 2024 | Mandy Taheri

Posted on 10/12/2024 5:22:20 PM PDT by lasereye

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is pulling ahead in Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state, according to a recent poll from The New York Times/Siena College, which is ranked by FiveThirtyEight as the most reliable pollster in the United States.

The winner of Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral votes—more than any other swing state—could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in the Keystone State found Harris leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, by 3 percentage points.

The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10 and published on Saturday, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Trump's 47 percent. However, Harris' lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. In addition, the poll reported that 3 percent of respondents didn't know who they supported or refused to answer.

Harris leads among women, with 58 percent backing her compared to 40 percent for Trump. She holds an overwhelming lead among Black voters, 81 percent to Trump's 16 percent, according to the poll.

FiveThirtyEight evaluates pollsters based on their historical accuracy and methodological transparency, awarding the Times/Siena College 3 out of 3 stars.

Newsweek has reached out to Harris' and Trump's campaign for comment via email on Saturday.

Recent polls in the battleground state show a near deadlock between Harris and Trump, with any lead falling within the margin of error.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters found Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point, with 49 percent of respondents backing Trump and 48 percent supporting Harris. The poll, conducted between October 5 and 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California; US: Minnesota; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: california; fakenews; fakepolls; harris; kamalaharris; minnesota; newsweak; newyorkslimes; newyorktimes; nope; notmostaccurate; pennsylvania; philadelphiainquirer; siena; sienacollege; tds; timwalz; trump
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FiveThirtyEight rates Siena as the most accurate pollster in the 2022 midterms. It was way off in 2020.

I expect the polls to be more accurate this time compared to 2020. I base that on the fact that they are all showing fairly similar numbers.

1 posted on 10/12/2024 5:22:20 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

how expertly newsweek packages so much propaganda into a single headline.


2 posted on 10/12/2024 5:23:59 PM PDT by xoxox
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To: lasereye

Asking my wife to hide the knives in the house now ...


3 posted on 10/12/2024 5:24:07 PM PDT by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
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To: lasereye

In that same poll Trump pretty much putting Arizona out of reach. And I order to get the desired 3 point lead for Kamala they had a Biden +8 2020 sample. So consider the source.


4 posted on 10/12/2024 5:28:17 PM PDT by Lod881019
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To: lasereye

Sure.


5 posted on 10/12/2024 5:29:01 PM PDT by GrumpyOldGuy
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To: lasereye

Trump +6 in Az make sure you report the good news as well as the bad


6 posted on 10/12/2024 5:29:36 PM PDT by Lod881019
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To: GrumpyOldGuy

they did vote for Fetterman.......or so we are told


7 posted on 10/12/2024 5:30:20 PM PDT by changeitback440
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To: lasereye

She’s not winning PA by 3 points. Biden eeked out a 1.17% win, with no third party activity of consequence in 2020… special kind of stupid to believe Harris is going to win PA by 3.


8 posted on 10/12/2024 5:34:15 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: lasereye

They aren’t going for the emptyheaded whore.


9 posted on 10/12/2024 5:35:13 PM PDT by DesertRhino (2016 Star Wars, 2020 The Empire Strikes Back, 2024... RETURN OF THE JEDI. )
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To: xoxox

Right. They even used the same satirical headlines I made up last month with “Harris Support Surging In New Poll” and others.


10 posted on 10/12/2024 5:37:42 PM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls. )
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To: HamiltonJay

The NYSlimes is all out to destroy President Trump. I took a look at the page on Fascist Book- every other story is anti-Trump. Look a the picture they manufactured of JD Vance to promo their interview with him. Even on a bad day I don’t think Vance could look like that.

My point- the Slimes would for sure skew a poll at this point with the hopes of influencing the election.


11 posted on 10/12/2024 5:37:44 PM PDT by God luvs America (6young 3.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: changeitback440

Fetterman won handily because despite the lies that idiots like Hannity and The RNC talking points told you, he’s was a solid candidate who fit well with the electorate, compared to a carpet bagging fraud and POS named Oz.

So tired of Fetterman won by fraud bs.. OZ was the worst candidate I have ever seen run for statewide in PA as a Republican and he lose because he was a straight up POS , lying carpet bagging fraud.. period.


12 posted on 10/12/2024 5:42:29 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: lasereye

Newsweek is trying hard to get the lying, cackling Marxist elected, but it won’t work. It’s too obvious that Newsweek is a lying rag with no value.


13 posted on 10/12/2024 5:45:42 PM PDT by I want the USA back (Voltaire: To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.)
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; PaulZe; brityank; Physicist; ...

Pennsylvania Ping!

Please ping me with articles of interest.

FReepmail me to be added to the list.

14 posted on 10/12/2024 5:46:57 PM PDT by lightman (I am a binary Trinitarian. Deal with it!)
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To: Lod881019

From the other day, the WSJ has Trump up by six in Nevada and by one in PA, tied in NC and WI, and behind only by two in AZ and MI.


15 posted on 10/12/2024 5:47:07 PM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966 )
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To: lasereye

The DSW will not win. No way…


16 posted on 10/12/2024 5:54:58 PM PDT by 9422WMR
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To: lasereye
She holds an overwhelming lead among Black voters, 81 percent to Trump's 16 percent, according to the poll.

That's not good. Obama got 95%.

So Trump is tripling his support from Black voters.

17 posted on 10/12/2024 5:56:24 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: lasereye

857 likely voters...A suburban high school basketball court holds more than that. There is no way to take into account the “replacement” of voters who have died versus those who are new to the voter rolls. I fear that any traditional polling may be an archaic activity versus demographic and technological change from any four-year period to another.


18 posted on 10/12/2024 5:56:53 PM PDT by MHT
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To: MHT
857 likely voters...A suburban high school basketball court holds more than that.

Manipulated. Yet it may be accurate because they have to account for the fraud.

Fortunately, Trump can win without PA.

19 posted on 10/12/2024 5:59:00 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: lasereye

Yeah, whatever.


20 posted on 10/12/2024 5:59:58 PM PDT by Jaded (I'll take "How Stupid Are People" for $1000, Alex. Look! It's a Daily Double.)
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