New Georgia Poll Hints That State is Out of Reach for Kamala Harris

Red State ^ | 09/25/24 | streiff

[SeekAndFind]

A new CBS/YouGov poll released Wednesday has former President Donald Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris by two points. The poll of 1,441 registered voters shows Trump with a 51 percent to 49 percent lead.

*New*
CBS News poll: Tight race in Georgia, where Trump has 2-point edge over Harris

Here:

https://t.co/4l2ohB39nl pic.twitter.com/rgIVQ1tNZf— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) September 25, 2024

This is the latest in a string of polls showing Trump leading by between one and four points in Georgia; see here and here. The CBS/YouGov poll called the 2020 race in Georgia on the money.

The entire poll is at the bottom of the post, but I think there are some interesting items that need highlighting.

I think this poll undercounts Trump's strength in Georgia. The topline split is two points, but when you dig deeper, that doesn't seem plausible.

Poll crosstabs show that Trump leads men by 13 points (56 percent to 43 percent) and Harris leads women by seven points (53 percent to 46 percent). If the male-female crosstabs are accurate, I don't think you can get to a two-point lead. I've posted on Harris's problem with male voters not named Willie Brown; see Tim Walz's Manly Essence Isn't Helping Kamala Win Male Voters. The inability of the Harris-Walz ticket to appeal to male voters will be the big story if Trump wins this election.

The poll hit some political issue peculiar to Georgia as well as those with national attention.

• Sixty-five percent of those surveyed think things are going either "somewhat" or "very badly" for the country.
• Voters prefer Trump's economic policies to Harris's by 14 points.
• For all the harping on "democracy," by 45 percent to 42 percent, Georgians thought Donald Trump would make democracy stronger.
• By 49 percent to 35 percent, voters thought they would be better of financially with Trump as president.
• Bidenomics is a non-starter. Seventy-nine percent of voters say their income is not keeping up with inflation and only 22 percent say they are better off financially now than four years ago. Seventy-one percent said housing is either "somewhat" or "very" unaffordable.
• The Democrats have invested a lot of money in campaigning for more gun control, and both Harris and Trump are tied on the question of their policies reducing "gun violence."
• Abortion is another hot-button issue the Democrats have invested heavily in. While 59 percent of voters believe abortion should be legal in "most" or "all" cases, they are split 50-50 on whether Georgia's six-week abortion ban is "too strict" or "about right/not strict enough." The scaremongering over women dying for want of an abortion isn't working. Fifty-four percent believe that pregnancy is either "safer" or "hasn't changed" since the six-week ban was enacted. Significantly, 71 percent believe Harris will pass a national law making abortion legal everywhere but only 34 percent think Trump will make abortion illegal in all states.
• Majorities approve of the new hand-count mandate and believe it will give more accurate results.

In short, Trump is winning on every major issue, voters are unhappy with their situation, and everyone is looking forward to voting. As I noted, I don't think you can go through the crosstabs and conclude that Trump is only ahead by two points. If this poll is close to accurate, it is game over in Georgia for Harris-Walz.

[fhayek]

CBS uses a poll of registered voters to show it close. Must be the likely voter poll was much more favorable to President Trump.

[HamiltonJay]

AZ, NV, GA and NC are not and never were “in play” this cycle

PA is as well, but fraud is a concern

Honestly I fully expect the 16 map with a few states added.

If Kamala fully collapses which honestly if they keep doing what they are doing she will, expect a lot of states added to the 16 baseline

[BigEdLB]

The internals speak to a 6 point margin for PDJT. Probably the likely voters will show that

[BigEdLB]

2016+. Add VA,NH, MEAt lg (kamala still carries ME-1), MN, NM, NV , and maybe OR

[gundog]

...and maybe OR

That’ll get a commie’s attention.

[HamiltonJay]

Yes if she collapses I fully expect most of those.. maybe even stretch and pull out some other ones.

We will see what happens.

But there is no path to 270 for the Dems and never has been this cycle

[BigEdLB]

After that list one looks at NJ NY and CT

[unclebankster]

The last poll done in Oregon was in July and had Harris +5.
There is no way Harris is winning Oregon +16 like Biden in 2020.

Her margin will be much smaller and Trump hasn’t spent a dime in this state.

Harris is just a bad candidate.

[unclebankster]

That’ll get a commie’s attention.

**********************

We reside in the same state.

Shake a Douglas Fir.....then start ducking from all the progressives that fall out.

I almost caught Tre Arrow that way.....damn, I’m getting old & slow.😀

[gundog]

I’m dodging fir cones dropped by the damn chickarees. One nearly hit me in my boat. Liberals hitting the ground would be fine by me, though.

I see a few Harris /Walz signs. The Trump stuff has been up since 2020. A notable exception being someone that put a new flagpole in their yard. Old Glory on top, Trump 2024 beneath.

[Brown Deer]

How many polls are over-polling Democrats?

[bitt]

p

[Georgia Girl 2]

No worries they’ll just pony up some harvested ballots for Kammie.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

That graph shows what Megyn Kelly was talking about

[Liz]

I cant wait for the Fani Willis ads sucking up to Harris.

Will make Trump’s Ga numbers soar.

[OrioleFan]

If it looks really bad for Kamala, I expect she will 25th amendment Joe, become President, get us in a shooting war with Russia and China, and suspend the election.

[Eleutheria5]

Polls are BS. Disregard them. ‘nuff said.

[mund1011]

The internals speak to a 6 point margin for PDJT. Probably the likely voters will show that.

++++++++++

Which means the harris campaign gets the plumbing team on speed dial to preemptively help “fix” the pipes in the vote processing facilities.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

PA’a 19 EVs would do it.