Posted on 09/23/2024 11:42:31 AM PDT by MplsSteve
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over former President Donald Trump among likely Minnesota voters, according to a new poll released six weeks before Election Day.
The Minnesota Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll found Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz with a 48% to 43% lead over Trump and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. Seven percent of respondents said they remain undecided, while fewer than 2% of those polled said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
The poll’s findings are based on interviews with 800 likely Minnesota voters, conducted Sept. 16-18. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The last Minnesota Poll in June — before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race — showed Biden with a narrower four-point lead over Trump, 45% to 41%.
(Scroll to the end of this article for full results for each question. Click here for the poll methodology, a demographic breakdown of the sample and a map of the poll regions.)
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
But their poll does not seem to be far off another I recently saw. I'll be the first to admit that I did read the whole article - but didn't peruse the cross-tabs.
This race is winnable. Trump needs to perform better in the suburbs - counties like Washington, Dakota, Scott, Carver and Anoka.
I totally get it that the campaign has bigger fish to fry (Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc) but a trip to Minnesota wouldn't be bad. Fly into Rochester (home of the Mayo Clinic and a kinda purplish area) and hold a rally. Rochester's media market extends into western Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa.
Comments or opinions - anyone?
What was the differential last time at this point vs the final?
This polling reporting is maddening without context.
If Florida goes to Harris then there will be no doubt that there was massive election fraud there.
“800 likely Minnesota voters, conducted Sept. 16-18. The poll’s margin of error...”
800 likely voters?
How many welfare Somalis?
Yes, if there is time, a Trump trip to Minnesota would be a very good idea. Walking into the belly of the beast, or one of those bellies.
Yes, ... the woman who was so bad that Biden (yes... the old fart who had to drop out because he was too incompetent) was about the drop her from the ticket... that woman is suddenly so popular
IIRC he was there earlier this year - St. Cloud?? Mid-Western MN - got lots of folks from S. Dakota too.
https://www.startribune.com/about-the-minnesota-poll/601150025
Check out the methodology.
Cooked poll.
The Somalis are the vote they need to hold was Walz designed to keep them happy.
If the Somalis and Lefties can stomach Israel going on offense right before the election maybe Kamala wins.
If they can’t?
It’s like Bibi is forcing the issue might end up helping Trump in Minnesota at this rate.
And pigs will be crapping from the skies.
Forget Minnesota. In one of the few cases of 2020 polling Biden did better than the final Real Clear politics polling. Way better.
RCP had the average spread with Biden at +4.3. Biden won +7.2
Minnesota is fools gold.
‘...The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 36% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 35% independents or other...’
D = 288
R = 240
I = 280
800 is a very small sample
If Harris is only up 5 in Minnesota then she is not up 5 nationwide.
Minnesota was ripe for the pickings but her choice of Walz tilted it back to her...but still only by this margin.
If a Super PAC donor would like to write another check for a few million (not divert resources from another battleground) and blanket the airwaves there, it might be worth a go to make it interesting. But need to boost Trump’s positives with highlights of his accomplishments, SOTU speeches, etc. and highlighting Walz’s decades of false statements about his military record and of course all of the material on Harris that is plentiful - Harris has to both have her numbers be pushed down from that 48% and Trump’s raised...48% is too close to 50 - you would not want her to maintain that support as even if 3/4 of the undecideds go for Trump, she would still win.
A slight lead in Minnesota? Yikes!
None in their right mind thought this commie state was in the Trump column. If it goes Trump then we have a massive landslide!
If Harris gets Florida, it would be a landslide for Harris. The only thing Harris has going for her in Florida is two constitutional amendments on abortion and weed. Those may get out the 18-30 year olds to vote more than anything else. It won’t be from cheating as Florida elections are tight and tamper proof.
Eliminate the brother-sister marriage vote and you might be ok in Minnesota
Harris was running ads during the Vikings vs Texans game on Sunday. So Minnesota might be close
So Democrats had to be sampled at 6 points more than Republicans to give Cackles a 4 point lead?
The fact that it's this close in MN indicates an election result similar to Bush vs Dukakis. But the Dems didn't have cheat-by-mail-in ballots and Dominion back then.
It's going to have to be a landslide to overcome the cheating, and it's looking like that could very well happen.
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