Posted on 09/23/2024 8:08:10 AM PDT by edwinland
This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina find Donald J. Trump leading Kamala Harris in all three states, with a lead of three points in North Carolina, four points in Georgia and five points in Arizona.
In one sense, the finding is very clear: It’s a good set of numbers for Mr. Trump. It’s not necessarily an exceptional one, as Ms. Harris’s easiest path to victory lies in the Northern battlegrounds. But Mr. Trump’s path to victory begins in the Sun Belt; if he wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many more.
In another sense, this result might give you a bit of polling whiplash ... the polls have been relatively stable over the last week — or even a hair better for Vice President Harris than polls taken before the debate. These results don’t fit that story at all: On average, the results are five points better for Mr. Trump than when we last polled these states, in mid-August. And in each state, these results are the best results for Mr. Trump from a high-quality pollster in weeks.
[snip]
You might think that Mr. Trump’s gains might be driven by changes in the likelihood of Republicans or Democrats to respond to a poll. But the balance of response rates by party and race stayed exceptionally similar to what they were in August, even as the results were very different.
[snip]
It’s interesting that Mr. Trump fares so much better than his MAGA allies, whom you might think of as fundamentally similar political figures — and it’s something to monitor to see if it holds through November. For now, the big swing in the presidential race, without a large down-ballot swing, suggests there’s something specific to the presidential race at play.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Polls are like statistics ... you can get whatever result you want by picking the right group to answer questions asked.
“suggests there’s something specific to the presidential race at play”
Yeah. He towers over the foreigner running against him in all respects, not just physical height. Other then the ghettoized idiots here in California voting for her just cuz, the rest of the country actually notices things like that. NYC excepted of course...but even parts of that place aren’t lost to Mr. Trump.
Middle class and working class voters are coming to realize that Heels Up Harris is nothing but an empty pantsuit. IOW,they know that the lights are on but nobody’s home.
Why the Trump surge?
Everytime Kamala opens her mouth, Trump scores more points.
An added point pusher——Tim Walz was sent out of hiding to make a speech this week, too.
If it can’t be deciphered why polls started leaning Trump, then they’ll either have to “rid” of Trump or “shut down Maga responses” online.
In Georgia, the Harris commies have started running ads linking Trump to Project 2025 and others that say Jan 6th was an “insurrection’. I’m hopeful that is a sign they’re getting desperate.
Kamala Harris???
She's a dud, and the Democrats selected her to be a dud... They've known Trump was going win this election from the moment America discovered that Biden was a vegetable. They are already prepping for 2028.
Polls over the weekend touted here as Kams surging were in fact, premature.
And they plan to collapse everything and blame it on Trump.
Why are Trump's numbers improving? The more people see of harris the less they like her. She is a very disgusting woman and about as shallow as a sheet of paper.
People don’t vote for the VP in almost every case going back a century, however JD will reduce Walz to a smattering mess like we haven’t seen in our lifetime. For those *independents* on the fence might be swayed once they see Walz reduced to ashes in 90 minutes. Maybe even pick off a few rat votes or they just stay home, polls be damned.
Wow. Up to 11 replies now without the usual “yeah, but what about the cheating.... they are going to just have to manufacture more fake ballots...”.
I like the Jack Posobiec take on X that he has never known a candidate that was truly ahead to be begging for another debate to happen (and possible bounce)...
Vote democrat if YOU WANT:
HIGHER GROCERY PRICES, HIGHER CRIME, HIGHER INFLATION, HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND MORE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.
YOU DECIDE !!!
Yes, she is a dud and the more she is exposed the bigger and more unlikable of a dud she becomes. Ren and Stumpy have new competition. Happy, happy! Joy, joy!
“Mr. Trump”
Grow up, NYT.
i wonder how they will handle their manipulations with so much early voting. i think i won’t pay much attention to them, one way or another.
I did some quick math on the electoral college map the other day and found this website.
If you color red the states in won in 2020, then add in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and then hopefully factor in that Nebraska is changing how they award electoral college votes, Trump would be at 269, meaning if he doesn’t win another state, Kamala would also be at 269, I think this has happened only 1 other time Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
Because of the 2020 census Red States had a net gain of electoral college votes, if the census did not count illegals, then Trump would be much closer to winning the 270 he needs to become POTUS.
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