I did some quick math on the electoral college map the other day and found this website.
If you color red the states in won in 2020, then add in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and then hopefully factor in that Nebraska is changing how they award electoral college votes, Trump would be at 269, meaning if he doesn’t win another state, Kamala would also be at 269, I think this has happened only 1 other time Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
Because of the 2020 census Red States had a net gain of electoral college votes, if the census did not count illegals, then Trump would be much closer to winning the 270 he needs to become POTUS.
Trump would win a 269-269 tie in the House though. As long as the Republicans flip two senate seats Vance would win in the senate. Would be crazy though if the Republicans don’t flip two senate seats, and we wind up with a Trump-Walz administration.