Posted on 09/16/2024 9:47:11 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
As the 2024 election cycle intensifies, political analysts are scrutinizing every detail to forecast the potential outcome. In the latest edition of "Atlas Deep Dive," Andrei Roman, CEO of AtlasIntel, and Pedro Azevedo, the chief specialist for U.S. elections, provided insightful analysis on the current state of the race.
AtlasIntel, in case you don’t know, was the most accurate pollster during the 2020 election. So its polling and insight are actually important. Its latest survey gave Trump a 2.9-point lead over Kamala Harris nationally — which would translate to a significant Electoral College victory.
So what do they say about the state of the race right now?
Roman asked Azevedo for his qualitative take, beyond the numbers, on the chances each candidate has. Azevedo's response was cautious.
"I would say my intuition was that we would see the polls at least narrow a little bit during this month with the enthusiasm for Kamala and how things have been going for her," he explained. Azevedo estimated a 60-40 chance for Kamala Harris, with the expectation that a positive debate performance could give her a boost. "If after this debate, which she did so well and which everyone agrees that she won... she can get some momentum going."
For our VIPs: Is This Another Sign The Harris Campaign Knows They Are Losing?
However, Roman, whose analysis is deeply rooted in numerical data, presented a more conservative outlook. He stated, "Well, I'm very much oriented by the numbers we have,” he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
“And I believe in those numbers. And if I believe in those numbers and I think about how this plays out, you know, swing state by swing state — and that is something that we'll be releasing next week — I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%."
Very simply, if you look at the polls that were way off the last two President elections, they mostly show Harris ahead. If you look at the ones that were most accurate, they show Trump leading. What can we conclude from that?
The government will continue to try and win through other means. PA, FL, whatever.
The 2020 Steal will pale in comparison to what the commies have in store for 2024. They know they can get away with daylight robbery and nothing will happen to them.
1. That the cheat has not been factored in
2. That it is still uncomfortably close and within easy range of the cheat.
I believe the poll numbers and I think they match Kamala’s internal poll numbers. That is why the 2nd assassination attempt. The deep state needs someone in the White House who they can control.
“uncomfortably close”
What is REALLY uncomfortable that half the electorate does not understand how the Kommie would absolutely, thoroughly, and finally destroy the American Republic once and for all. Half the electorate is ignorant about what happened in North Korea, the USSR, Cuba, Venezuela and many more countries.
The ditz isn’t presidential material and that idiot she has running with her isn’t human being material. He’s a goofball.
Half the electorate could not find NK, USSR, Cuba or Venezuela on a map. Many can not can not even point to the correct continent.
North Karolina?
I conclude that there are polls done to change public opinion that the race is close. These are published for taht reason only.
Any poll at this point that is not LIKELY voters should be ignored.
Then the poll needs to be weighted by the actual electorate.
Lastly, who cares how they vote in VT or MA. We know that Kamala will win those states and California. However, IF Trump is UP in the popular vote across the whole country it is OVER.
It really comes down to the swing states and the bell weather counties. Which is how we knew that Biden cheated. He did not win any of the bell weather counties. The problem is the cities in the swing states. Can they cheat enough in those counties to put Kamala over. IF it is close, the answer is yes. If not, they can not manufacturer 5%-6%.
Actually parts of North Carolina(Ashville) are starting to resemble North Korea. Just like Austin, TX is already.
My oldest brother lives on the outskirts of Charlotte. He moved there in the 1990s from western NY. So did lots of other people from the Buffalo area. So much so that there is a sports bar where they show the Bills games on the TV instead of the Panthers.
There is still a huge rivalry between Duke and Tarheel fans.
Lara’s RNC is much better prepared to address the cheat than in the past where the idiotic consent decree made it impossible for Republicans to even have poll-watchers.
I lived for several years in Chapel Hill. I instructed a couple of international studies classes at UNC and worked as a cook at Carolina Coffee Shop. This was back when the vaunted Dean Smith was coach.
My oldest brother worked at Chapel Hill. He ran a dining hall at UNC for Marriott Corp. This was when Michael Jordan was there. Y’ALL were probably there at the same time.
He met his wife there. She was a student. Her whole family went there.
cautious.
“I would say my intuition was that we would see the polls at least narrow a little bit during this month with the enthusiasm for Kamala and how things have been going for her,”
Uh Ok Whatever.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.