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Here's What 2020's Most Accurate Pollster Says About the Current Election. Kamala Won't Like It.
PJ Media ^ | 09/16/24 | Matt Margolis

Posted on 09/16/2024 9:47:11 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

As the 2024 election cycle intensifies, political analysts are scrutinizing every detail to forecast the potential outcome. In the latest edition of "Atlas Deep Dive," Andrei Roman, CEO of AtlasIntel, and Pedro Azevedo, the chief specialist for U.S. elections, provided insightful analysis on the current state of the race. 

AtlasIntel, in case you don’t know, was the most accurate pollster during the 2020 election. So its polling and insight are actually important. Its latest survey gave Trump a 2.9-point lead over Kamala Harris nationally — which would translate to a significant Electoral College victory.

So what do they say about the state of the race right now?

Roman asked Azevedo for his qualitative take, beyond the numbers, on the chances each candidate has. Azevedo's response was cautious.

"I would say my intuition was that we would see the polls at least narrow a little bit during this month with the enthusiasm for Kamala and how things have been going for her," he explained. Azevedo estimated a 60-40 chance for Kamala Harris, with the expectation that a positive debate performance could give her a boost. "If after this debate, which she did so well and which everyone agrees that she won... she can get some momentum going."

For our VIPs: Is This Another Sign The Harris Campaign Knows They Are Losing?

However, Roman, whose analysis is deeply rooted in numerical data, presented a more conservative outlook. He stated, "Well, I'm very much oriented by the numbers we have,” he said.

(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; polls; pollster
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This is what he says:

“And I believe in those numbers. And if I believe in those numbers and I think about how this plays out, you know, swing state by swing state — and that is something that we'll be releasing next week — I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%."

1 posted on 09/16/2024 9:47:11 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Very simply, if you look at the polls that were way off the last two President elections, they mostly show Harris ahead. If you look at the ones that were most accurate, they show Trump leading. What can we conclude from that?


2 posted on 09/16/2024 9:56:05 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: SeekAndFind

The government will continue to try and win through other means. PA, FL, whatever.


3 posted on 09/16/2024 10:00:12 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (My decisions about people are based almost entirely on skin color. I learned this from Democrats.)
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To: SeekAndFind
“And I believe in those numbers. And if I believe in those numbers and I think about how this plays out, you know, swing state by swing state — and that is something that we'll be releasing next week — I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%."

The 2020 Steal will pale in comparison to what the commies have in store for 2024. They know they can get away with daylight robbery and nothing will happen to them.

4 posted on 09/16/2024 10:02:31 AM PDT by HandBasketHell
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To: lasereye

1. That the cheat has not been factored in
2. That it is still uncomfortably close and within easy range of the cheat.


5 posted on 09/16/2024 10:06:32 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (More important than why there was nobody protecting the AGR roof, how did Crooks know that?)
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To: SeekAndFind

I believe the poll numbers and I think they match Kamala’s internal poll numbers. That is why the 2nd assassination attempt. The deep state needs someone in the White House who they can control.


6 posted on 09/16/2024 10:08:57 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: SeekAndFind
Uh oh...


7 posted on 09/16/2024 10:15:43 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (May the soy boys, feminazis, and alphabet weirdos choke on the toxic fumes of our masculinity)
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To: Sequoyah101

“uncomfortably close”

What is REALLY uncomfortable that half the electorate does not understand how the Kommie would absolutely, thoroughly, and finally destroy the American Republic once and for all. Half the electorate is ignorant about what happened in North Korea, the USSR, Cuba, Venezuela and many more countries.


8 posted on 09/16/2024 10:17:45 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (May the soy boys, feminazis, and alphabet weirdos choke on the toxic fumes of our masculinity)
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To: SeekAndFind
Azevedo estimated a 60-40 chance for Kamala Harris, with the expectation that a positive debate performance could give her a boost. "If after this debate, which she did so well and which everyone agrees that she won... she can get some momentum going."

Pollsters that are that biased and that can come to such conclusions after watching the debate, should NEVER be taken seriously, and should in fact, not even be considered as pollsters or even allowed to be engaged in the discussion over the presidential campaign. It's like listening to Kamala Harris giving her own opinion about who won the debate. Total nonsense!
9 posted on 09/16/2024 10:23:31 AM PDT by adorno (CCH)
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To: SeekAndFind

10 posted on 09/16/2024 10:28:36 AM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell in 2024)
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To: SeekAndFind

The ditz isn’t presidential material and that idiot she has running with her isn’t human being material. He’s a goofball.


11 posted on 09/16/2024 10:29:46 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (abc ! America's lower case far-left network.)
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To: SeekAndFind

12 posted on 09/16/2024 10:31:43 AM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell in 2024)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

Half the electorate could not find NK, USSR, Cuba or Venezuela on a map. Many can not can not even point to the correct continent.


13 posted on 09/16/2024 10:36:49 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: woodbutcher1963
Half the electorate could not find NK

North Karolina?

14 posted on 09/16/2024 10:39:08 AM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell in 2024)
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To: lasereye

I conclude that there are polls done to change public opinion that the race is close. These are published for taht reason only.

Any poll at this point that is not LIKELY voters should be ignored.
Then the poll needs to be weighted by the actual electorate.
Lastly, who cares how they vote in VT or MA. We know that Kamala will win those states and California. However, IF Trump is UP in the popular vote across the whole country it is OVER.

It really comes down to the swing states and the bell weather counties. Which is how we knew that Biden cheated. He did not win any of the bell weather counties. The problem is the cities in the swing states. Can they cheat enough in those counties to put Kamala over. IF it is close, the answer is yes. If not, they can not manufacturer 5%-6%.


15 posted on 09/16/2024 10:44:45 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: thegagline

Actually parts of North Carolina(Ashville) are starting to resemble North Korea. Just like Austin, TX is already.

My oldest brother lives on the outskirts of Charlotte. He moved there in the 1990s from western NY. So did lots of other people from the Buffalo area. So much so that there is a sports bar where they show the Bills games on the TV instead of the Panthers.

There is still a huge rivalry between Duke and Tarheel fans.


16 posted on 09/16/2024 10:49:48 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: Sequoyah101

Lara’s RNC is much better prepared to address the cheat than in the past where the idiotic consent decree made it impossible for Republicans to even have poll-watchers.


17 posted on 09/16/2024 10:49:56 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: woodbutcher1963
There is still a huge rivalry between Duke and Tarheel fans.

I lived for several years in Chapel Hill. I instructed a couple of international studies classes at UNC and worked as a cook at Carolina Coffee Shop. This was back when the vaunted Dean Smith was coach.

18 posted on 09/16/2024 11:00:30 AM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell in 2024)
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To: thegagline

My oldest brother worked at Chapel Hill. He ran a dining hall at UNC for Marriott Corp. This was when Michael Jordan was there. Y’ALL were probably there at the same time.

He met his wife there. She was a student. Her whole family went there.


19 posted on 09/16/2024 11:18:47 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: SeekAndFind

cautious.

“I would say my intuition was that we would see the polls at least narrow a little bit during this month with the enthusiasm for Kamala and how things have been going for her,”

Uh Ok Whatever.


20 posted on 09/16/2024 11:43:21 AM PDT by TalBlack (Fight Fight Fight America https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKOJdMog6T0)
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