Emerson: September State Polling: California, Florida, Ohio, Texas

Emerson College Polling ^ | 9/6/2024

[PermaRag]

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill statewide polls find Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by ten in Ohio, 53% to 43%, five in Florida, 50% to 45%, four in Texas, 50% to 46%, while Harris leads Trump in California 60% to 36%. Races in Florida and Texas are within the polls’ margin of error, while California and Ohio fall outside the polls’ margin of error.

[PermaRag]

Of course this is nearly all balderdash (all except Ohio).

The gall of these gaslighters -- showing supposedly close races in Texas and Florida now, including two desultory GOP Senate incumbents. There's simply no way some hyphenated femiNazi can be neck-and-neck with Rick Scott in Florida, nor can some brain-damaged NFL "star" in Texas be that close to Ted Cruz. The only good news in the poll is Ohio, where they show Bernie Moreno still losing (all polls have always had him losing) to Sherrod Brown, but he is as close as he's ever been -- just down 2 points.

We All Just Know (WAJK) that Florida isn't really going to be close in November, nevermind that Democrat turnout is clearly spiking due to the presence on the ballot of measures which are bringing out the rabid abortionists (unlimited baby murders for all!) and doper dirtbags (legal weed for all!).

And WAJK that Cruz isn't REALLY in any danger in Texas though several obviously-biased polls in addition to Emerson's show otherwise. At least they haven't been able to generate one showing Cruz losing (nor Scott). Not yet.

At the presidential level, while WAJK the FL and TX results are absurd -- Kamulatto within 5 points in "dark red" states?!?!? -- consider the giddy reaction when....

Some outlier polls show *Trump* within 5 points (but still losing) in VIRGINIA and MINNESOTA!

Trump's got this! Red Wave! Democrats are panicking! And as all of the Mathematical PhD's know: if they say Trump's down by 5 it means he's really tied after we make our statistical adjustments!

WAJK that this poll and all others like it are biased and therefore can't possibly reflect reality (it's meant to SHAPE reality, blah blah blah....), and the proof will come in November. At least it better.

[fwdude]

“Texas, 50% to 46%”

Utter BS. They must be polling 50% of respondents out of Austin.

[suasponte137]

I agree...but looking at Ohio...that seems to have not been in play since 2016

[OttawaFreeper]

I recall about this time eight years ago, there was a poll showing Hillary within striking distance in Texas and the Democrat activists here were cheering big time.

[wiseprince]

50-36 in California and tied nationally...🤔

[Luke21]

I still remember the MSNBC hack who said Hillary would win Kansas.

[Jane Long]

CA has The Dem Cheat operation down pat.

[fwdude]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Donald J. Trump Michael R. Pence Republican 4,685,047 52.09% 36
Write-ins - - 25,699 0.29% 2
Hillary Clinton Timothy Kaine Democratic 3,877,868 43.12% 0

One of the very few elections with faithless, criminal electors. Trump should have gotten 38 votes.

[nitzy]

Guys, I hate to be the bearer of bad news but they aren’t importing all of these illegals because of their generous spirits. They are doing it to get names into the system to create ballots.

Kamala will get 8-10 millions more votes than Biden did. Trump will probably get 1 million new votes from converts from the other side and some new voters who didn’t vote last time.

Kamala is going to win in a landslide.

In 2020, we knew they were going to cheat with mail in ballots. All of the signs were there. We didn’t do anything to stop them.

This time they are going to cheat through illegals. All of the signs are there. We won’t do anything to stop them.

The people in positions of power to do something, don’t care.

[DSH]

Utter BS. They must be polling 50% of respondents out of Austin.

In 2020, Trump won Texas with 52% of the vote, while Biden got 46.43% -- i.e., a margin of 5.57%. Texas has been trending towards "purple" state status in recent times, and it does no good to deny that reality. The fantasy mantra of the GOP's "open borders" crowd -- "Just wait, you'll see. Hispanics, with their 'family values,' are natural Republican voters" -- is just that a fantasy. And now some demographic chickens may be coming home to roost.

Reality doesn't cease being reality simply because some people can't face it.

[DSH]

The people in positions of power to do something, don’t care.

I agree with everything you said here but this last statement. I believe that those who are in a position of power to do something very much care. That is to say, they very much want Harris to win . . . or, rather, for Trump to lose. Pretty much everyone in a "position of power" in this country is today a "Never Trumper," even if only covertly.

[fwdude]

There is far more election fraud in Texas than most people realize, notwithstanding the strict election laws. Some of the low-hanging fruit of this has already come to light. Several illegal “ballot harvesters” collecting ballots to submit have been convicted and sentenced. Tip of a large iceberg.

There is also substantial evidence of a great number of non-citizens voting in the state.

If all of these were finally and decisively squashed, the purple would quickly fade away.

[HamiltonJay]

Hahahahaha

Any polling outfit that had TX and FL inside the margin of error tells you instantly that they have huge problems.

[DSH]

If all of these were finally and decisively squashed, the purple would quickly fade away.

Mitt Romney, of all people, beat incumbent Barack Obama in Texas by 15.78%. If you imagine that a ~10% improvement for the Dems in the span of just eight years is down solely to "voter fraud" (which I have no reason to doubt is also happening), well, I don't know what to tell ya. People just believe what they want to believe, I guess.

Electoral politics today is pure and simply a referendum on demographics. Policy and ideology have only the barest effect, and only on the margin. People either get that, or else they . . . go away disillusioned and disappointed. It's tough for the average person to accept when they are no longer "in the majority."

[Southside_Chicago_Republican]

So our “republic” will have a government that is installed by illegal means and is therefore illegitimate. We have a government that taxes us, regulates our lives, sends our young people off to be maimed and killed in hellholes around the world, and it holds power illegally and illegitimately.

Maybe it’s time to dust off those old “Union is Dissolved!” posters.

[PermaRag]

Mitt Romney, of all people, beat incumbent Barack Obama in Texas by 15.78%. If you imagine that a ~10% improvement for the Dems in the span of just eight years is down solely to "voter fraud" (which I have no reason to doubt is also happening), well, I don't know what to tell ya. People just believe what they want to believe, I guess.

Electoral politics today is pure and simply a referendum on demographics. Policy and ideology have only the barest effect, and only on the margin. People either get that, or else they . . . go away disillusioned and disappointed. It's tough for the average person to accept when they are no longer "in the majority."

Seriously though, you're absolutely right. The question which the "frodd, frodd, frodd!!!" people never ask (perhaps because they don't really want to know the answer) is HOW states like Arizona, Georgia and (soon) Texas BECAME so close that Democrats could steal them with some well-focused fraud confined to a fairly small geographic area.

Given demographic trends, the surprising thing is that they stayed somewhat reliably Republican as long as they did. Some states -- Colorado is a good example -- transition from tilting perhaps a bit to the right, to being a complete tossup, to being a state where Republicans haven't got a chance at the statewide level, and are a permanent minority at the district level since Democrats have the power of the gerrymander (no matter if some supposedly "independent", "bipartisan" or "nonpartisan" group draws the lines).

In the not too distant future, people will be asking "remember when Arizona was a SWING state?" and "remember when Texas was reliably GOP?". Texas of course is the whole enchilada because without that no Republican will ever win the White House again. Well, at least until California or New York flips from D to R, LOLOL.

[napscoordinator]

Cruz won by less than 3 percent last time. It’d be nice if he did better.

[italianquaker]

The concerned few are very concerned
Trump wins Florida by 10 pts easily

[HamiltonJay]

Cruz also pissed off a lot of his supporters by his behavior in the 2016 presidential election... this combined with a LOT of outside money pushing Beto...

The last Texas Senate Election in 2020, the republican won by 10 points.

Trying to portray Cruz’s 18 performance as an indicator of Texas’s trending is nonsensical.

Even as Nonsensical as Beto thinking HE actually was WHY Cruz only won by a small margin.. not realizing he was an empty suit and just happened ot be at the right place at the right time.... As indicated by his governors race in 22 where he lost by over 11 points.

The 2018 Cruz election was a result of things largely unique to Cruz, and the fact the Dems were desperate because Trump was the President to do anything and everything.....

I am not worried, nor is any serious person worried about TX or FL... Neither of these states are “in the margin or error”... and its beyond comical that anyone would fall for any polling group who would release a poll claiming they are.

[BK_in Central Texas]

And Ohio, Florida, Missouri were all swing states in recent times but aren’t anymore. Trends and demographics and “politics” change both ways. Texas and Florida have both become more red the last few years and based on party ID Pennsylvania has become more of a true battleground. I would predict florida will be Trump by 6-9 points (so a poll with + 4 is not that much of a statistical outlier) and Texas by 7-10 so again this poll is within the statistical “safe harbor” they present (but almost always leans left much like Fox, Quinnipiac, etc)