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Planning for a Post-American NATO
Foreign Affairs ^ | 9/5/24 | Phillips P. O'Brien and Edward Stringer

Posted on 09/06/2024 4:32:39 AM PDT by hardspunned

Europe may soon find itself in a tight spot. By the end of January 2025, the continent’s most important partner, the United States, could be led by former President Donald Trump, who has said that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell it wanted” to European countries that did not do what he wanted: spend more on defense. The previous Trump administration strained the transatlantic relationship, and the next iteration would almost certainly be worse. Freed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet in his first term, a second-term Trump would face fewer obstacles to making good on his threats.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignaffairs.com ...


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Lots of neocon nonsense to wade through but apparently the Euroweenies are afraid Trump might “force de frappe” them. That, is an excellent idea!

What Europe needs is another de Gaulle. In today’s world of Lilliputian Euroweenie leaders, a de Gaulle led France would rule Europe from the Dnieper to the Atlantic.

I say get out of Europe now. If the Germans want to kill the Poles because the Americans are no longer there to stop it. I don’t care. If the French want kill the Brit’s again, none of my business.

1 posted on 09/06/2024 4:32:39 AM PDT by hardspunned
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To: hardspunned

Europe may soon find itself in a tight spot. By the end of January 2025, the continent’s most important partner, the United States, could be led by former President Donald Trump, who has said that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell it wanted” to European countries that did not do what he wanted: spend more on defense. The previous Trump administration strained the transatlantic relationship, and the next iteration would almost certainly be worse. Freed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet in his first term, a second-term Trump would face fewer obstacles to making good on his threats.

The U.S. election is far from decided, but the magnitude of the change that a Trump victory could bring is far too great for Europe to sit by and hope that the former president loses at the ballot box. Trump has warned that he would immediately cut all U.S. aid to Kyiv and demand a quick end to the war, which would likely require Ukraine to cede a significant part of its territory to Russia. And that could just be the start. Trump has long questioned the value of NATO, so it is not inconceivable that he would strip back the U.S. commitment to defend Europe. He could enact the analyst Sumantra Maitra’s widely circulated “dormant NATO” proposal, in which the U.S. military would provide logistics support as a last resort but leave all other NATO defense responsibilities to Europe, or follow in the footsteps of French President Charles de Gaulle, who removed France from NATO’s military command (but not the alliance itself) in 1966. Assurances that Washington would not disappear from Europe entirely do not make the proposals in Trump’s orbit any less dangerous. NATO is held together by the confidence and resolve of its members; their belief in the alliance would be mortally undermined were Trump to push even an incomplete U.S. withdrawal.

There is no reason Trump could not act quickly. As commander in chief, he could vow never to order U.S. troops to fight for Europe and take steps to withdraw the United States from NATO’s military command. Europe, as a result, would be forced to confront a security crisis on a scale it has not faced since World War II. Without the United States to provide military leadership and capability, European capitals could quickly turn against one another over Ukraine. Countries in central and eastern Europe, for instance, may double down on their commitment to the survival of a strong Ukraine, fearing that a Russian victory would give Moscow the opportunity to rebuild, rearm, and then, with the help of a compliant Belarus and Ukraine, issue new threats across the border. Many western European countries, meanwhile, might decide that, with the United States out of the picture, the best option would be to force Ukraine to make extensive concessions to Russia. A European security alliance could collapse under the weight of such incompatible outlooks.


2 posted on 09/06/2024 4:33:13 AM PDT by hardspunned (Look for the“Putin Stooge” libel, news from Ukraine you’ve gradually grown to trust over 30 months )
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To: hardspunned

Taking the teeth away from the Globalists is one way to keep America safe and soverign. The other us to leave the UN and revamp our State Department political party neutral.


3 posted on 09/06/2024 4:36:54 AM PDT by Jumper
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To: hardspunned

If you think Trump is going to give up on Europe or NATO, you are truly deluded


4 posted on 09/06/2024 4:42:13 AM PDT by canuck_conservative (NATO - now celebrating 75 successful years of keeping the Russian monsters out!!)
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To: Jumper

NATO IS the globalist (yes, global) thug enforcer. Your neocon/globalist modern day world policeman. A very, very scary world policeman.


5 posted on 09/06/2024 4:43:25 AM PDT by hardspunned (Look for the“Putin Stooge” libel, news from Ukraine you’ve gradually grown to trust over 30 months )
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To: hardspunned

“even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

I was debating reading this, since it sounded like good news for once, but before spending the time, I did a search for the Leftist Dog Whistle by doing a search on “full-scale”, so no dice.

By the way, according to estimates, Russia’s ‘full-scale invasion’ into Ukraine in 2022 involved about 80,000 troops actually going in. Germany’s ‘full-scale invasion’ of Poland, roughly the same size and population as Ukraine, was 1.5 million, so this term is CLEARLY a Dog Whistle when trying to apply it to Ukraine.


6 posted on 09/06/2024 4:45:01 AM PDT by BobL
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To: hardspunned

NATO is going muzzie. We need out.


7 posted on 09/06/2024 4:47:11 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: hardspunned

Ordinary Europeans are generally good people.

Their leaders are generally awful people.


8 posted on 09/06/2024 4:51:37 AM PDT by Brian Griffin ("Why didn’t she do it three and a half years ago?”)
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To: central_va

Correct. Any publication that ignores or downplays the very real, and much more dangerous, muzz slime invasion has no credibility.


9 posted on 09/06/2024 4:51:43 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (Trump/Vance 2024 or GFY)
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To: hardspunned

These slimeballs want it both ways.

They hyper-sensationalize the Russian threat against NATO while not holding NATO members accountable for their military obligations.

When should NATO member pay in? After a war starts?

These people have ZERO credibility.


10 posted on 09/06/2024 4:52:34 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (This is the end of the Republic....because we could not keep it.)
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To: hardspunned
"what he wanted"? No. How about just keeping your own GD word to spend a paltry 2% of GDP on Defense for the first time in decades and decades? How about act like adults? How about not being complete and utter freeloaders counting on America to pay the price in money and blood while you blow all kinds of cash that should be used on your own defense on idiotic Gaia Worship or Socialism at home? Why is it too much to ask for them to be actual partners, actual allies, instead of freeloaders?

"strained the transatlantic relationship" Gee, you don't think it "strained the transatlantic relationship" when they failed to provide for their own defense? How about when they went out of their way to buy cheap Russian gas instead of buying from someone else when it was Russia we were supposedly defending them against??? How about when they continued to trade with Cuba, Iran, Iraq under Saddam...anybody we had sanctioned and patted themselves on the back for being "independent" of America even as they were freeloading off of America for their Defense? How about having a totally one-sided trade arrangement with America which allowed them to run a massive trade surplus? You don't think any of this "strained the transatlantic relationship? Newsflash! Its not the early 50s anymore. Europe doesn't need to be getting all sorts of handouts from America anymore. They've long since rebuilt. Its long past time for them to start carrying their own weight.

"Freed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet" Freed from spineless sellout RINOs who were sure to stab him in the back every chance they got you mean.

11 posted on 09/06/2024 4:54:18 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: Jumper

Cutting funding to NATO and the UN would cut the budget by a few billion dollars as well.

Not that in a 3+ billion dollar budget it would be noticed.


12 posted on 09/06/2024 4:54:33 AM PDT by Pontiac (esse welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
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To: central_va

“NATO is going muzzie. We need out.”

Agreed.
The reason for NATO ended a long time ago.

Let them beg their new Moose Limb Overlords for mercy.
Not our problem.


13 posted on 09/06/2024 4:55:35 AM PDT by Macoozie (Roll MAGA, roll!)
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To: hardspunned

Europe is going down the tubes and we are enabling them. We need to stop. We need to step away and let them sort things out. It won’t be pretty, but it’s truly not our problem.


14 posted on 09/06/2024 4:59:29 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (My decisions about people are based almost entirely on skin color. I learned this from Democrats.)
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To: hardspunned

What an idiotic comment


15 posted on 09/06/2024 5:03:57 AM PDT by canuck_conservative (NATO - now celebrating 75 successful years of keeping the Russian monsters out!!)
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To: canuck_conservative

Why are you still here? I thought you signed up to fight for the pUkraine.


16 posted on 09/06/2024 5:04:12 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: canuck_conservative

Good Lord! What are you neocon globalists going to do now? FRiend, I told you two years ago that NATO was a dead man walking. He’s now a dead man stumbling.


17 posted on 09/06/2024 5:04:20 AM PDT by hardspunned (Look for the“Putin Stooge” libel, news from Ukraine you’ve gradually grown to trust over 30 months )
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To: ClearCase_guy

Think Nolan Ryan being ‘effectively wild’. Throwing that ball 100 MPH made the batter take his mind off hitting the ball. Trump is lighting a fire under the asses of out allies. Overdue.

The rats will accuse him of losing too many our friends-that’s what’s overdue. Think of the critics of Star Wars, saying it wouldn’t work and preferring all nations be subject to Soviet intimidation. Pershing missiles in Europe were not popular. Both did the job they were intended to do.


18 posted on 09/06/2024 5:09:30 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: BobL

That is a rather ridiculous rationalization for the terrorist Russian invasion of Ukraine

Another way to view the unprovoked action is that it was in fact full scale. The numbers of men and armor was the maximum Russia was actually capable of. What the world has learned is that when thinking of the Russian military, there really isn’t much there, there


19 posted on 09/06/2024 5:09:51 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. +12) Where is ZORRO when California so desperately needs him?)
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To: BobL

That’s why I gave you the “neocon nonsense” heads up. I suffered through it for you. What do you think Trump will do?

You don’t have to read the first word to know FA wants to do.


20 posted on 09/06/2024 5:11:01 AM PDT by hardspunned (Look for the“Putin Stooge” libel, news from Ukraine you’ve gradually grown to trust over 30 months )
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