"We think Trump is weird."
Posted on 08/14/2024 9:26:11 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris nationally by two percentage points, a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners survey reports.
The survey examines the race between Trump and Harris, the latter of whom Democrat leaders coronated as their top-of-the-ticket candidate without the help of actual Democrat voters. Bizarrely, some Democrat leaders, such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), are still claiming that this was a decision from the grassroots up.
Nevertheless, Democrat elites officially nominated Harris as their party’s presidential candidate on Friday, August 2, 2024, leaving 14 million Democrats who voted for President Joe Biden in the primary in the dust.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
bttt
Why would anyone want to vote for the Whore of Babylon as the character referred to in the Christians’ New Testament.
The polls in 2016 had Trump behind all the way to election day. Of course these were nationwide polls that reflected the popular vote.
Trump was pretty consistently behind by 5 to 9 points August thru Sept. The worst came in mid to late October, when some of the major polls were showing Hillary ahead +10 to +15.
By early November a lot of the polls had settled in around +3 for Hillary, which was fairly accurate, the final margin in the popular vote was +2.1 for Clinton.
But again, these polls were predicting the popular vote, which doesn’t mean richard in the Electoral College.
Right now, Trump is outperforming 2016 in most of the polls.
Unfortunately, JL partners isn’t very highly rated on the 538 website. 538 rates 277 pollsters; JL come in at 145. That said, it’s interesting seeing one going against the grain.
The best use of polls (to me) is in seeing trends. For example, if XYZ poll one week says Harris Walz is ahead by 4% and this week is ahead 2%, that’s more significant than a poll that that rated the ticket up 2% in both weeks.
And of course, we are so far away from election day that polls are pretty meaningless. I’d pay more attention to them come October 1.
In 2020, Trump nearly won the EC even while ostensibly losing the popular vote by 4.5% I am not sure why either side would take much glee (or pessimism) with the current state of the polling. It seems very much like a jump ball. Even at his worst, post-debate, Biden was still polling only 2 to 3 points behind in the national averages.
That this is even a contest says a ‘hole’ lot about the intelligence or lack thereof in this country. SMDH!
National polls are sweet but it’s 5-7 swing states that matter
It’s that simple
And in those states it’s how much fraud they can commit in the metro high minority areas
The fact that this is even close shows how much damage the media does to our elections not to mention Stalist show trials.
This was a poll of LIKELY voters, not REGISTERED voters, as the ones showing Harris ahead mostly were.
Election starts September 6th, before any agreed upon debates. Not sure what the point of elections are.
What I find informative is to compare changes in the electorate in each individual battleground state that post their data....
In Arizona in ‘20 Repubs outnumbered Dems by 120k as of July ‘24 that number has grown to 259k while independents have risen by only 40k...
Nevada in ‘20 dems outnumbered repubs by 83k and won the state by 34k....in July ‘24 this advantage had decreased to only 29k...that being said independents have risen from 362k to 689k making independents the larges block in NV
Pennsylvania went from a 675k dem lead in ‘20 to only 358k lead currently....independents make up only 15% of the voting public in PA....Trump lost by 81k....(but repubs have netted an increase of 317k since then)
North Carolina similar to PA...Dems actually led by 390k in ‘20 but repubs have cut that lead to only 133k now. Picked up 257k since 20 and already had won the state by 74k
It will be election day and the media will still not have mustered the courage to demand Kamala do an interview.
Thanks. interesting statistics. I wonder how Georgia’s changes have gone? Virginia too would be interesting.
Polls are too crazy at the moment. Dems see Kamala as a “generic democrat.” I am ignoring them for a few weeks.
Biden didn’t really get 81 million legit votes.
She is still underwater even with EVERYthing going her way, except that anchor VP candidate she chose. Good news!
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