Posted on 08/10/2024 2:23:19 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
If there were any doubt whether Vice President Kamala Harris has transformed this year’s presidential election, Saturday morning’s latest New York Times/Siena College polls put it to rest.
In the first Times/Siena College swing state polls since her entry into the race, Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 4 points each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters. It’s a major shift from previous Times/Siena polls, which found Trump leading Harris and President Joe Biden by an average of 1 or 2 points each across the same three states.
Sometimes, it can be hard to explain why polls shift from week to week or month to month. In today’s polarized politics, it can even be hard to explain why voters ever shift at all. In this case, it’s easy: Harris’ entry into the race has upended the fundamentals of this election.
Until now, the basic dynamic of the race was driven by Biden’s unpopularity. It prevented Democrats from running their usual strategy against Trump and his MAGA allies: Make an election a referendum on Trump by running a broadly acceptable candidate. Millions of voters were left with an agonizing choice between two candidates they disliked.
With Harris riding an extraordinary wave of momentum at the top of the ticket, at least for now, the usual political dynamic of the Trump era has been restored. In the poll, at least 49% of likely voters in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin say they have a favorable view of her, a level neither Harris nor Biden obtained in any previous Times/Siena poll this cycle.
Whether this will last is an entirely different question.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
He clearly just doesn’t have the money. He was outspent by massive amounts in 2016 and 2020 also Trump is nearly 80 years old his days of campaigning everyday are over.
With what could be coming down in the next 4 years everything from a 2nd Great Depression, a 2nd Civil War to Global Warfare with a Military like we had in 1939-1940 might better get that game face on.
How on earth can she be Indian? She doesn’t even wear moccasins.
I think it would be great to hold a bunch of rallies but his age has clearly caught up with him. He can go and go at an event he’s at but being 78 he just doesn’t have the gas in the tank to do it everyday like he did even 4 years ago.
Not to say he can’t win but the signs are there he’s even said he doesn’t plan on doing much of anything the next few weeks and basically seeding battleground states to her. I wish he wouldn’t but he just can’t go anymore.
Every 4 years do we need to be reminded? This same polling outfit had Biden up 11 in Wisconsin a week before the election 4 years ago.
pollster date sample moe
Biden (D)
Trump (R)
spread
Final Results — — — 49.6 48.9
Biden+0.7
RCP Average 10/21 - 11/1 — — 51.0 44.3
Biden+6.7
CNBC/Change Research (D)
10/29 - 11/1 553 LV — 53 45
Biden+8
Susquehanna*
10/29 - 10/31 450 LV 4.7 49 46
Biden+3
Emerson
10/29 - 10/30 751 LV 3.5 53 45
Biden+8
Reuters/Ipsos*
10/27 - 11/1 696 LV 4.2 53 43
Biden+10
NY Times/Siena*
10/26 - 10/30 1253 LV 3.2 52 41
Biden+11
Trafalgar Group (R)*
10/24 - 10/25 1082 LV 2.9 48 47
Biden+1
CNN*
10/23 - 10/30 873 LV 3.9 52 44
Biden+8
Marquette*
10/21 - 10/25 749 LV 4.4 48 43
Biden+5
RealClearPolitics Poll Average
Why is Harris advertising in Oregon!???
Shh.. the keeper trolls don’t like logic.
“He was outspent by massive amounts in 2016 and 2020”
Yet he won both times.
Ads in Philly are 2 to 1 Trump.
2020. Hmmm
“Why is Harris advertising in Oregon!??”
Because most in Oregon have had enough of crooked democrats and Kramala is in danger of losing here.
I still maintain in 2020 he got bad advice about the state of the race in Ga and Az
I don't know if you misunderstood what DJT has said, but this is an outright lie. DJT is not seceding any ground to Harris, plus he is doing the traditional thing of keeping a low profile during the Dem convention. The full on campaigning happens from Labor Day to the election.
I also don’t see any signs that he’s slowing down due to age. I’ve seen many in their late 70’s and early 80’s that are in good health and still cognitively sharp. Trump has a lot of energy for his age. I am also sure that security is now a big issue for the Trump campaign, especially since they have been told by the secret service that they can’t fully protect him at outdoor rallies anymore. Why risk it?
Many players in the US that have a bounty on his head unlike Kamala.
If that is the case then it’s over with...
Very possible. He got a lot of bad advice over time.
These polls are reflecting a response bias (essentially a lot more dems raising their hands and responding,) follow Rich Baris for a better explanation https://x.com/peoples_pundit
Rallies impact are over stated,one good commercial reaches more people than any rally. It is still Trump’s race to lose, if he stays on issues, inflaction, border, wars, he wins.
Too many of my fellow Trumpers do not realize that a campaign needs money to win, for ads,suppor staff and get out the vote. Too many talk a good game but don’t do anything to help win,
If someone doesn’t want to donate directly to the GOP or Trump campaign consider this young man: Scott Pressler he helped defeat Hillary Clinton is registering voters to help Trump win, https://earlyvoteaction.com/
for more
see more about him here
pressler https://x.com/ScottPresler
For true Catholics, (not Catholics in Name Only ) that are supporting Trump with ads and get out the vote
See CatholicVote.com
I have no idea...but the rallies are absolutely good for the campaign - the traditional retail politics is an essential part of victory to get your base turnout, and no one does it better than Trump. But you have to wage the war on all fronts - the people deciding the election are not those going to the rallies but those sitting at home watching their favorite TV shows. And on many media outlets, they are hearing from Harris - and only Harris.
Has nothing to do with his advisors. When Trump is on the stump, do you think he’s thinking “what did my advisors say I should say again?” Of course not. He just goes off the rails and says whatever he wants to say.
TDS maggots need the zot. Maybe they can start with usted.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.