Biden is out, but it’s still the inflation election

MSN ^ | July 23, 2024 | Rick Newman

[DoodleBob]

…This fresh start for Democrats, however, doesn’t alleviate a problem Harris inherits from Biden: Voters associate the Biden administration and Democrats in general with the high inflation of the last two years.

And there’s no easy way for Harris to wash her hands of it.

Forecasting firm Oxford Economics updated its election forecast after Biden dropped out of the race and found that economic factors still favor Republican nominee Donald Trump. “We still think that swing voters will vote on pocketbook issues, namely their perception of inflation,” economist Bernard Yaros wrote in the July 22 analysis. “The vice president will likely drive renewed enthusiasm and attract greater fundraising, but for now, she still seems to carry the same baggage as Biden. Former President Donald Trump is still the favorite to win.”

Oxford bases its election model on approval ratings for the incumbent — which applies to Biden and Harris both — and on economic factors in the swing states likely to determine who wins in November. Inflation has dropped sharply from its recent peak, which was 9% in 2022. It’s now at 3%, which is close to normal levels. But most of the price hikes of the last two years are still there, raising price levels for staples such as food on a more or less permanent basis.

The Oxford analysis includes three scenarios for how voters think about inflation when choosing whom to vote for. In the “sticker shock” model, voters focus on cumulative price changes during the Biden-Harris administration — which is bearish for Democrats. In that model, the Republican challenger would win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and other key sting states, more than enough cushion to clinch an electoral college victory.

If voters focus instead on the rate of change in prices, that favors Democrats,

[DoodleBob]

The proper discussion is around how to flip 38+ electoral votes, and retain the States won in 2020.

We NEED Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona or some combo theirin.

And this is against the backdrop of mail-in voting, which isn't going away.

Stop with the pipe dreams in NJ, CT, and NY. Those gutters have Dem machines that aren’t worth an ounce of energy.

Forget Russia-Ukraine (who cares, really), the WEF, and other bogeymen who make voters think we want to Make America Crazy Again.

Once again, it’s the economy, stupid. Focus on the battleground states and pound the snot out of their handling of inflation, the economy, energy prices, interest rates, anti-business taxes and regulation. 24/7.

Let them flap their gums about killing babies, hating parents, and other nonsense.

Make them fear waking up and seeing their Twitter feed bursting with Americans who want America back.

[Carriage Hill]

If we don’t get the BORDER sealed and under control, INFLATION won’t matter one damned bit.

[Lod881019]

It really doesn’t is. In 2008 Obama got the perfect storm with the economy and housing collapse and a patsy candidate like McCain. Kamala doesn’t have that most people blame her administration for the fact people can’t afford anything.

[lurk]

Inflation, border control, crime, taxes, woke military, national debt, woke judges, corrupt govt agencies...

[lightman]

"Are you better off than you were four years ago"?

[Does so]

Kamala D. Harris (VP)

I read it as:

“Calamity Harris”

[convoter2016]

Despite not being a fan of Trump, Harvey Levin, known for People’s Court and TMZ, said the election would turn on affordability and the border on TMZ Live. I agree that will be the downfall of Harris.

[gibsonguy]

Yeah people are only concerned about inflation, right. No one cares about hordes of criminals pouring across the border or their kids being groomed or losing their cars or stoves or crime or….

[PghBaldy]

Went to grocer few hours ago. Prices still rising. One item was $9.99 when Trump was POTUS; now it is $14.99.

[DoodleBob]

I hate to say this, but the issues that will get Trump back into the WH aren’t conservative red meat issues.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/642887/inflation-immigration-rank-among-top-issue-concerns.aspx

Centrists - the ones who will tip the scales - are worried about (in descending order) Hunger and homelessness, inflation, The availability and affordability of healthcare, crime and violence, the economy, drug use, federal debt, and illegal immigration.

That’s what’ll win it.

[353FMG]

If Biden is out, should he not vacate the WH?

[lightman]

Yup.

“It’s the economy, stupid!”

[Carriage Hill]

Bidet’s not “out”.
He’s just not running for re-election, but is still POTUS until DJT is sworn in on Jan 21st, 2025.

[frank ballenger]

Harris will blurt out: “We are spending a lot of campaign cash for our ads because of much higher prices than before due to Bidenflation. Uh, oh. Shouldn’t have said that.” (Laughs hysterically).

[Texas resident]

I used to feed 5 people on what I can feed 2 today.

[MortMan]

If voters focus instead on the rate of change in prices, that favors Democrats...

If you only look month-over-month, inflation is only alarming. Year-over-year, and administration to administration makes the numbers catastrophic.

[SunkenCiv]

• Mapped: The Salary Needed to Buy a Home in 50 U.S. Cities in 2024 [07/24/2024]
• Hellooo, hyperinflation: Kamala Harris's agenda is to tax-and-spend bigger [07/24/2024]
• Politicians Pressure Powell to Give Up the Inflation Fight -- Rate Cuts Ahead? [07/20/2024]
• Mapped: The Price of a Big Mac Across the World [07/23/2024]
• Clyburn: Biden 'Couldn't Do Anything About' Grocery Prices [07/23/2024]
• Biden: I Tell People Dealing with High Prices Inflation's Dropping, I Did Loan Plan, There's Greed, I Have Housing Agenda [07/18/2024]
• Don't Expect Home Prices To Go Down Anytime Soon, Say Experts [07/15/2024]
• Was Inflation Really 9% When Biden Became President? [07/16/2024]
• Most Americans point to inflation as biggest issue ahead of election: Survey [07/14/2024]
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: Migration Is 'Neutral' for Inflation [07/11/2024]
• Contrary To Media Claims, Inflation Index Shows Americans Still Face Sky-High Prices [07/11/2024]
• Inflation Slows To 3.0%, But Shelter Still Rising At 5.2%, Electricity Up 4.4% (Core Prices Continue To Rise And Have Never Been Higher) [07/11/2024]
• US Economy Slowing Like Biden, Down To 1.7% (According To Hot 'Lanta Fed), Mortgage Payment As % Of Income Near Highest Since Early 1980s [07/09/2024]
• VIDEO -- 'I Went Home and Made Dinner': Woman Shocked by $43 Price for El Pollo Loco Meal amid Inflation [07/08/2024]
• Citi Bike raises prices by whopping 20% in latest crunch on NYC commuters [07/08/2024]
• Payrolls Rise 206K After Huge Downward Revisions As Unemployment Rate Jumps 4.1%, The Highest In Three Years (Real Wage Growth Rises A Measly 0.8% YoY) [07/05/2024]
• Housing affordability is at the lowest level since 2007 Homes are now unaffordable in about 80% of the U.S [07/04/2024]
• Fourth of July BBQ Meal Up $11.72 Since Biden White House Bragged Price Dropped $0.16 in 2021 [07/04/2024]
• Biden announces plans to jail grocers to combat his food inflation. [07/03/2024]
• After Months of Gaslighting on the Economy, Biden FINALLY Has a Plan to Tackle Grocery Prices [07/03/2024]
• Simply Unaffordable! Home Affordability in the US Sinks to Lowest Point Since 2007, Home Prices UP 35%, Mortgage Rates UP 148% Under Biden (Mortgage Purchase Applications DOWN 12% YoY) [07/03/2024]
• Chicago Suburb Homeowner Sees Property Tax Spike Over 3,000% [07/02/2024]
• Bidenomics, baby! Salaries have fallen 8.2% over the last Five years [07/02/2024]
• JOLT'IN Joe! US Job Openings Almost Exclusively Government Jobs (Productive Private Sector Jobs Barely Grow At 2.8% While Unproductive Government Jobs Grow 20%) [07/02/2024]

[ridesthemiles]

BIDEN HAS BEEN IN USA POLITICS FOR OVER 50 YEARS-—

HE STILL DOESN’T SEEM TO KNOW THAT THIS COUNTRY IS A “REPRESENTATIVE REPUBLIC”-—And NOT a “DEMOCRACY”.

DEMOCRACY is 4 wolves & 1 sheep deciding on what is for dinner.

[ridesthemiles]

HE is out as a candidate for re-election.

HE DID NOT RESIGN AS PRESIDENT.

He holds that job/title until Jan 20, 2025.

IMO-—HE will be the star of his own funeral by then.

Do NOT buy him any green bananas.

[1Old Pro]

Biden/Harris inflation, open border, high crime, unlawful government, woke policies - we have all the issues on our side. The GOP just needs to market the issues.