Election Model: Trump Will Win Popular Vote by Wide Margin

Breitbart ^ | 07/01/2024 | WENDELL HUSEBØ

[ChicagoConservative27]

Former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November, Nate Silver’s election model forecasted June 30 after the first presidential debate.

The last Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004 with 50.73 percent.

Silver’s election model’s forecast is the first time it predicted Trump would defeat Biden with the popular vote. Trump was previously behind by two points one day before the debate, the forecast predicted.

[Antoninus]

Consider that 20% of Democrat voters admitted to breaking at least some election laws with regard to mail-in balloting in 2020. Without the cheat, Trump very likely won the popular vote in 2020 as well. If we just do the simple math and lop off 20% of Biden's "official" total in 2020 (81,000,000), that gives 64,800,000 votes. That puts him at about a million votes less than Hillary in 2016. I think that's a good estimate of how many legit votes Biden received.

It's also about 10 million less than Trump received in 2020.

[LS]

Agree. Don’t see it being six, but if it is, this would be close to 400 EVs.

[piytar]

Trump’s win has to be TOO BIG TO RIG.

[bassmaner]

I'll crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump, but there are just too many low-info voters who will buy the 'convicted felon' canard even though it resulted from a Stalinist show trial.

And do you really think that DJT will be able to run a campaign and win an election if he's locked up in Riker's Island?

Unless SCOTUS 'reaches down' and puts an end to the lawfare like they did in Bush v. Gore, we're f**ked.

[cgbg]

Your numbers sound reasonable to me.

I laugh at folks doing demographic voting analysis based on a stolen election.

It is like discussing poker strategy at a Mob poker game.

[griswold3]

Mark Elias should have this under control. They weren’t ready in 2016 and got caught flatfooted. Won’t happen again, I bet.
keep an eye on democracydocket.com

[Signalman]

If a Republican wins the popular vote, then the EV vote will be a landslide victory.

[rktman]

Too bad that’s not the deciding factor. Can the democommies buy enough electoral votes? I know, that can’t happen....

[1Old Pro]

he EV vote will be a landslide victory.

It will, Biden has dementia and is unfit for office. He can't possibly get the votes of anyone who doesn't have dementia.

[joshua c]

what margin of fraud did he use?

[Political Junkie Too]

If the Democrat loses both the popular vote and electoral vote, we riot in the streets, burn and loot and claim “democracy has failed.”

And indict the Republican for election interference.

-PJ

[ChicagoConservative27]

Thanks for sharing

[Political Junkie Too]

I have to redo my HTML. The Democrats should be one column to the left.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Based on polling as of Sunday, my model has a probability-weighted average of 317 Electoral Votes for President Trump.

As of now, here is a tabular list of the Electoral College as I see it.

State Rankings Definitions

• Safe - 100% probability of winning
• Strong - 75% to 99.99% probability of winning
• Lean - 62.5% to 74.99% probability of winning
• Toss-Up - 50% to 62.49% probability of winning

Democrat - 198						Toss-Up - 13				Trump - 327
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Tilt-D		Tilt-R		Leaning		Strong		Safe
165		23		10		13		0		39		91		197
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
54	California	2	Maine	10	Minnesota	13	Virginia			15	Michigan	11	Arizona	9	Alabama
10	Colorado	4	New Hampshire							14	New Jersey	16	Georgia	3	Alaska
7	Connecticut	5	New Mexico							10	Wisconsin	6	Iowa	6	Arkansas
3	District of Columbia	12	Washington									6	Nevada	30	Florida
3	Delaware											16	North Carolina	4	Idaho
4	Hawaii											17	Ohio	11	Indiana
19	Illinois											19	Pennsylvania	6	Kansas
10	Maryland													8	Kentucky
11	Massachusetts													8	Louisiana
28	New York													6	Mississippi
8	Oregon													10	Missouri
4	Rhode Island													4	Montana
3	Vermont													5	Nebraska
1	Maine CD-1													3	North Dakota
														7	Oklahoma
														9	South Carolina
														3	South Dakota
														11	Tennessee
														40	Texas
														6	Utah
														4	West Virginia
														3	Wyoming
														1	Maine CD-2

[GeorgiaDawg32]

Trump got over 400 EC votes in ‘20, but stealing the ballots through mail-in etc. took that away from him. I read an article several years ago that suggested Trump actually won California.

I honestly believe Biden got no more that 25-30M real votes and the rest were switched from Trump or invented out of thin air.

81M votes my a*s..

[Mouton]

Just remember 81 million votes last time.

Its not who votes, it is who counts the votes.

[Political Junkie Too]

The battleground states in order of importance are:

1. Michigan (15)
2. Wisconsin (10)
3. New Jersey (14)
4. Pennsylvania (19)
5. Virginia (13)
6. Nevada (6)

New Jersey popped onto the list based on the poll from over the weekend. This may be an outlier that drops NJ from the list after the next round of polling.

-PJ

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Whoever is taking polls is being dishonest. There is NO way Biden is that close to Trump. It appears every bit of economic/political information we get from the MSM is manipulated or an outright lie.

[fwdude]

The National Popular Vote Compact doesn’t come in to play until enough states ratify it.

I realize that, but for them to know that what they've been clamoring for non-stop would backfire on them has to give them pause.