Seven reasons that momentum favors Trump: Yes, we must be careful not to doom ourselves by counting our chickens before they hatch, but optimism is a driving force

American Thinker ^ | 06/22/2024 | Andrea Widburg

[SeekAndFind]

In politics, it’s important to remember that even if your preferred issue or candidate is lagging in the polls, the direction in which it (or he) is moving matters. Currently, candidate Trump is moving up on every metric. I’m mindful of the many warnings against hubris: “There’s many a slip twixt cup and lip”; the Yiddish “Mann tracht, Un Gott Lacht” (“man plans and God laughs”); and, of course, Aesop’s “Never count your chickens before they hatch.” However, optimism is a driving force in momentum, so let’s celebrate a bit.

Here, in no particular order, are seven causes for optimism:

One. According to today’s RealClearPolling page Trump’s average lead is +0.9. As a reminder against hubris, eight years ago, Hillary had a +5.8 lead.

Two. Because the national averages can be misleading given that they don’t reflect the all-important Electoral College, what’s currently more interesting are averages from the battleground states. Today’s RealClearPolling page offers an insight into that metric:

Without getting cocky, the reality is that, no matter how many votes Biden gets in Massachusetts or California, those votes don’t get him extra Electoral College votes.

Three. You might have noticed that I spoke about Biden’s Electoral College votes in Massachusetts or California. In past years, I might have mentioned New York, too. This year, though, some political watchers think New York might be in play:

It may seem unbelievable but it’s true: Donald Trump actually has a fair shot at winning New York in this year’s presidential election.

That’s right: The state that tried to bankrupt and jail him could help elect him.

Recent polling has consistently shown Trump well within single digits in the Empire State.

And the state as a whole has been shifting rightward,

[SeekAndFind]

As a native New Yorker, like the author, I still don’t believe New York is in play because there’s too much reflexive Democrat allegiance in that state. But Biden’s lead in New York, which was a magnificent 23 points in 2020 according to Emerson polling, is now only six points. That’s a mighty fall.

[Lisbon1940]

Last time Widburg said California was in play. This time she says New York is in play. She wears rosy glasses.

[Socon-Econ]

Forget optimism. Campaign like you’ll be dead if you lose.

[yldstrk]

The Republicans do have a way of counting on a red wave and not counting on the Democrats cheating.

[sopo]

In 2022 , about this time, the only question was whether the Republican House pick up was going to be more or less than 100.

[Paal Gulli]

" Seven reasons that momentum favors Trump: Yes, we must be careful not to doom ourselves by counting our chickens before they hatch, but optimism is a driving force "

How quaint.

Someone still suffering under the delusion that the voters will determine the outcome of the election.

[Georgia Girl 2]

She’s insane! Nothing is in play. The election if allowed to go forward will be stolen for Biden.