June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden

Emerson College ^ | 6/20/24 | Emerson College

[BigEdLB]

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill state polls find former President Donald Trump with a slight edge on President Joe Biden in Arizona (47% to 43%), Georgia (45% to 41%), Wisconsin (47% to 44%) Nevada (46% to 43%), Pennsylvania (47% to 45%), and Michigan (46% to 45%), while Biden splits with Trump in Minnesota (45% to 45%).

[BigEdLB]

Here is some of the Internals:

TOTAL	AZ	GA	MI	MN	NV	PA	WI
Donald Trump	42.7	44.9	44.0	41.6	42.1	44.8	43.8
Joe Biden	39.3	37.4	41.9	40.9	39.1	42.2	42.0
Robert Kennedy	7.7	5.9	5.2	6.3	7.2	4.9	6.1
Jill Stein	1.2	0.9	0.8	1.1	1.6	0.9	0.8
Cornel West	0.7	1.4	1.2	0.7	1.7	0.2	0.4
Undecided	8.4	9.4	7.0	9.3	8.3	7.0	6.9
Margin	3.4	7.5	2.1	0.7	3.0	2.6	1.8
Party total	AZ	GA	MI	MN	NV	PA	WI
Republican	34.2	38.0	37.0	33.8	29.1	41.2	36.4
Democrat	30.0	33.8	37.6	35.1	32.2	40.3	33.1
Independent	35.8	28.2	25.5	31.1	38.7	18.4	30.5
Male	AZ	GA	MI	MN	NV	PA	WI
Donald Trump	47.8	55.1	50.7	48.9	44.9	52.3	46.8
Joe Biden	39.0	31.3	37.1	37.2	40.3	39.2	37.7
Undecided	5.3	4.4	4.8	5.4	6.9	4.2	7.3
Robert Kennedy	0.6	1.6	1.3	0.9	1.0	0.2	0.6
Cornel West	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.9	0.4	0.4	0.6
Jill Stein	7.0	7.3	5.9	6.7	6.5	3.6	7.1
Female	AZ	GA	MI	MN	NV	PA	WI
Donald Trump	40.6	42.4	45.8	44.3	38.3	44.5	46.4
Joe Biden	38.9	36.3	39.1	35.8	40.0	38.5	41.4
Robert Kennedy	8.9	7.2	5.4	7.1	7.5	5.4	4.4
Cornel West	0.4	1.3	0.9	0.8	2.1	0.2	0.0
Jill Stein	1.9	1.5	0.9	1.1	2.3	1.3	1.0
Undecided	9.3	11.3	7.9	10.9	9.7	10.0	6.8
Republican	AZ	GA	MI	MN	NV	PA	WI
Donald Trump	78.6	84.0	86.2	85.2	89.0	83.5	86.0
Joe Biden	11.1	6.3	6.5	6.8	5.5	7.8	6.3
Robert Kennedy	3.8	4.5	4.1	3.0	3.4	3.6	3.8
Cornel West	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jill Stein	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.3
Undecided	5.9	5.0	2.7	4.7	2.1	4.9	3.6
Democrat	AZ	GA	MI	MN	NV	PA	WI
Donald Trump	8.0	7.7	6.9	4.8	6.2	9.7	5.4
Joe Biden	81.3	78.5	82.1	83.2	82.2	80.4	84.3
Robert Kennedy	6.3	5.0	4.0	5.4	4.4	3.7	5.1
Cornel West	0.3	1.5	0.8	0.9	1.2	0.5	0.6
Jill Stein	2.0	0.6	1.1	0.6	2.5	0.7	1.2
Undecided	2.0	6.8	5.1	5.1	3.4	5.0	3.3
Independent	AZ	GA	MI	MN	NV	PA	WI
Donald Trump	37.4	36.5	37.4	36.2	37.0	35.3	35.1
Joe Biden	31.3	30.1	34.3	29.8	28.8	34.8	38.7
Robert Kennedy	12.3	8.9	8.3	10.9	12.2	10.3	9.8
Cornel West	1.4	3.2	2.8	1.3	3.1	0.0	0.7
Jill Stein	1.1	2.8	1.6	2.6	2.1	2.7	0.7
Undecided	16.5	18.4	15.7	19.2	16.8	16.8	15.1

[Cottonhill]

Scott Presler is doing a super job in PA and the numbers are reflecting it.

[libh8er]

These polls are well within the MoF.

[BigEdLB]

Remember - here is about a 5% understatement of the DJT vote, as many DJT supporters tell pollsters to go **** themselves

[Zhang Fei]

In 2020’s final AZ poll, Emerson showed Biden ahead by 2%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/arizona/

Biden won AZ by 0.3%. The current Emerson Trump lead of 5% for AZ might be 7%, if 2020’s Emerson polling bias for AZ is still in place for 2024.

[nwrep]

Only 3% in AZ, not 5%.

[MountainWalker]

If he wasn’t already decided on doing it, I think the slight movement in the Fox News poll is going to motivate this hack judge Merchan to put Trump in jail. As I understand, even these swing state polls have narrowed a little too. They must be thinking that if a “conviction” moved the polls a little in their direction, jail should move them even more.

[cowboyusa]

Conviction is one thing. The majority of Americans don’t support putting him in jail.