Posted on 05/27/2024 10:43:29 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Contrary to what many political pundits, including this one, thought would happen as soon as Donald Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee, the former president has maintained a slim but steady polling lead over President Joe Biden. As of today, the RCP Average has Trump with a 1.1% overall advantage, with Quinnipiac being the only May poll showing Biden leading, albeit by a mere 1%. By contrast, Biden enjoyed a 5.6% advantage this time in 2020, an election in which Trump never actually took the average polling lead.
Still, are there signs that Trump's lead might be softer than we think? Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, recently published a piece claiming just that. Titled "A Polling Risk For Trump," Cohn contends that Trump's lead is "built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote."
Cohn breaks down the last three New York Times/Siena national polls to show that Biden, in contrast to his overall polling malaise, has maintained a consistent lead among voters who actually voted in 2020.
Conversely, Trump has built his lead with potential voters who didn't vote in the last election (or, if you will, "less engaged" voters).
From Cohn's piece:
Importantly, these low-turnout voters are often from Democratic constituencies. Many back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our polling, Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him.
This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged.
Trump’s dependence on these voters could make the race more volatile soon. As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, they might stay home, which could also help Biden.
These "irregular" voters, Cohn points out, lean Democrat, yet are "far less likely to identify as liberal" and "more likely to worry about the economy" than social issues like abortion. In other words, they likely feel the lifestyle crunch imposed by the Biden regime and are expressing support for Trump as an alternative.
Will that pain and frustration turn into actual results on election day? Will those "irregular" voters turn out for Trump, or will they stay home or, worse, come home to Biden? Nobody knows, even Cohn, who points out in his piece that a quarter of voters in any election did not vote in the last one. So, there is plenty of room for as many Trump voters as possible to turn out.
Still, it is clear that Democrats are taking heart from Cohn's piece:
Yes, Trump is strong among non-voters, and most of them will non-vote. https://t.co/kTRec9Ns12— Richard Stengel (@stengel) May 24, 2024
It'll be up to Trump and Republicans to turn these "irregular" voters into actual voters in November.
Quinnipiac and poll should not appear in the same sentence. They are antithetical.
“You know the result then.”
Trump won - your point?
Do they have connections to the Lincoln Project? Anyone aligned with them should be in doubt.
A bunch of cynical crap from the never Trumper’s at TH.
You believe the 83 million votes were legit?
Are you looking for a bridge? I got one I’ll sell you cheap.
None of it, absolutely none of it matters if mailin voting is used in any area. An honest election in this country is impossible so long as that is allowed.
This isn’t 2020.
RE: You believe the 83 million votes were legit?
81 million, 83 million, what does it matter?
My point is let’s not get too cocky because of the crowds we see today. We’ve seen those crowds before and they didn’t matter.
The old adage is still true. It’s the one who COUNTS the ballots that matters.
RE: This isn’t 2020.
Yes, it’s 2024, but has the election system changed since 2020?
Where was the red wave we expected in 2022 for example?
RE: Trump won - your point?
Simple, he’ll win again in 2024, just like he did in 2020. But is he sitting in the White House?
No. Just the opposite. As Baris shows over and over, Trump UNDERPOLLS his actual turnout.
From your optimism to God’s ear.
What does that have to do with not trusting the polls?
There have been lots of changes
Also, highest vote total of any sitting President in history.
“Where was the red wave?”
Stfu you trolling idiot.
Trump will not be permitted to win. China will not permit this, George Soros will not permit this, the uber rich will not permit this, the media will not permit this. Someone will take him out one way or another. His lead will vanish and Biden will be re-elected only to step down in a year or two for Harris to become the first women president. They will appoint Hillary as her VP, then Harris will be forced to do a Nixon and resign. This will start a century of Democratic rule.
The actual problem I see is “what if peace breaks out”? Short attention spans are common.
If the Israeli advance in Gaza is over, one way or the other, it means no headlines for people to set up protest tent cities over. They will drift a little for the fight against the phony genocide but no new daily stories ——or students on campus during summer vacation——will fuel anger.
Then they’ll say “Maybe Biden’s replacement (candidate X) is worth voting for. We have to save the democracy from the New Hitler Trump. I’m all in.”
RE: I don’t trust TOWNHALL.
I don’t, either.
As the line from the French Connection: Don’t trust anybody.
And X Files: Trust no one.
And the synopsis on the dvd back cover of the movie Serpico
with Al Pacino: “A fascinating character study as well as a statement about government’s inherent flaws.”
One of the flaws is vote fraud and vote count illegality by Leftists.
And Dr. House: “Everybody lies.”
Nobody believes that. Not even the people who say they believe that.
The problem with the story is Trump’s lead extends to likely voters in the polling. One of the basic definitions of “likely voter” is one who voted in recent elections.
So it is not clear how they reach their conclusion. Yes, the young did not vote in the last election. They were not old enough, but Trump’s polling results are not young dependent.
I suspect this is article is about black men, who maybe did not vote last time, but their numbers are not big enough to define the current Trump lead.
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