Posted on 05/27/2024 10:43:29 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Contrary to what many political pundits, including this one, thought would happen as soon as Donald Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee, the former president has maintained a slim but steady polling lead over President Joe Biden. As of today, the RCP Average has Trump with a 1.1% overall advantage, with Quinnipiac being the only May poll showing Biden leading, albeit by a mere 1%. By contrast, Biden enjoyed a 5.6% advantage this time in 2020, an election in which Trump never actually took the average polling lead.
Still, are there signs that Trump's lead might be softer than we think? Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, recently published a piece claiming just that. Titled "A Polling Risk For Trump," Cohn contends that Trump's lead is "built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote."
Cohn breaks down the last three New York Times/Siena national polls to show that Biden, in contrast to his overall polling malaise, has maintained a consistent lead among voters who actually voted in 2020.
Conversely, Trump has built his lead with potential voters who didn't vote in the last election (or, if you will, "less engaged" voters).
From Cohn's piece:
Importantly, these low-turnout voters are often from Democratic constituencies. Many back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our polling, Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him.
This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged.
Trump’s dependence on these voters could make the race more volatile soon. As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, they might stay home, which could also help Biden.
These "irregular" voters, Cohn points out, lean Democrat, yet are "far less likely to identify as liberal" and "more likely to worry about the economy" than social issues like abortion. In other words, they likely feel the lifestyle crunch imposed by the Biden regime and are expressing support for Trump as an alternative.
Will that pain and frustration turn into actual results on election day? Will those "irregular" voters turn out for Trump, or will they stay home or, worse, come home to Biden? Nobody knows, even Cohn, who points out in his piece that a quarter of voters in any election did not vote in the last one. So, there is plenty of room for as many Trump voters as possible to turn out.
Still, it is clear that Democrats are taking heart from Cohn's piece:
Yes, Trump is strong among non-voters, and most of them will non-vote. https://t.co/kTRec9Ns12— Richard Stengel (@stengel) May 24, 2024
It'll be up to Trump and Republicans to turn these "irregular" voters into actual voters in November.
I guess you have to be able to discern the level of enthusiasm now vs. 2020.
You know the result then.
You mean The Steal, right?
Not in a deep blue state.
As if what happened in NJ, magically, is not happening elsewhere.
In current times, no poll can ever be correct.
Polls don’t take into consideration the thefts that always occur in elections.
The only poll that matters, it used to be said, is the one that counts all the votes........
but, even that is not correct anymore....
since the only polls that count are the ones that have counted all the legal and illegal votes, and the votes that came in after the election was over, including the fabricated votes that always seem to overcome any lead by a republican candidate.
Polls can only be taken once the final results are in, and after the democrat candidate somehow overcame the real votes0.
Unless the pre-election polls consider the fraudulent votes with about 10% or more, those polls are incorrect. It’s why Biden and democrats always say that polls with Trump ahead are wrong, and they are correct.
Here’s why i’m optimistic (some will call it naive)
1- i don’t think DJT envisioned the amount of theft that took place in 2020.
2- i fully believe he has a handle on it now and is prepared. As stated in this thread- i was at the rally in the south Bronx Thursday and part of the theme was “To Big to Rig” in reference to the November election.
3- the fact his daughter in law Lara as well as Scott Pressler are out there pushing the GOP mail in voting for this November’s election puts DJT way ahead of the curve compared to where he was four years ago.
Six states!
If Biden wins even less people will believe the results this time. Another stolen election will trigger revolutionary times in America. Be careful what you wish for.
Trump is not going to win, so long as he makes no effort to court the single female vote—not an impossible task, but not a task Trump seems interested in performing. So Trump is going to lose to Biden. Again. Get used to it.
I went to a Trump in Orange County CA in 2016. The venue was crowded but not full. Trump went on and on about how it was the biggest crowd ever there, people were in the parking lot and couldn’t get in,and there were over 30,000 people there. However, none of that was true. There was plenty of room for more people, and the venue held only 13,000, so there was nowhere near 30,000 people there. Just like there was not 100,000 people at Wildwood.
I thought mail in voting was for cheaters. LOL.
Simple choice.
It’s Trump, or The End.
Dems will destroy everything.
Never Trumpers will happily make bank until they are dead.
Stupid Dem Voters have no idea what’s happening because they watch MSNBC/CNN/ABC etc ...
Libertarians not going Trump are just Flakey Leftists.
Vote Dem, you are my enemy.
The sides could not be more clear.
There is no excuse.
Oh can it, the guy won TWICE already.
Exactly rt. It’s freaking May. Who gives a sh*t.
Regardless of the polls, Trump needs to be running scared — not swaggering around as if he’s about to mop up the floor with the people who hate him.
Morefield suffers from TDS.
I pay no attention to what that concern troll has to say.
DITTO
Isn’t it just like the Left to come out with this “headline” at this moment in time. So predictable. Sooo phony.
Actually the winner, Biden will be known a few days before the election. Hundreds of thousands of ballots will be printed and only Biden/Harris will be marked and on election day quickly sent where needed.
more excuses so they can steal it
Yep, just because people go to his rallies don't mean they will vote for him.
I see nothing I the democrats behavior that show they fear any loss of power, in fact they are doubling down on every evil notion they ever had.
This election will define this nation for good or evil, I fear we won't choose wisely because for the most part we have abandoned God.
It doesn’t matter whether Trump wins the vote, he’s already lost the election. Because what action has been taken to prevent a repeat of 2020?
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