Posted on 05/21/2024 1:33:12 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
[T]he latest NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll finds Biden tied with Trump in New Hampshire ...
(Excerpt) Read more at nhjournal.com ...
shock?
A radio ad spoofed Mass.’s slogan:
“Make it in Massachusetts, spend it
in tax free New Hampshire”.
In 2016 Trump almost won NH. Sen
Kelly Ayotte refused to endorse him and
went down to defeat in same election (had
to retire due to illness: the voters got sick
of her)
Clinton 348,526
Trump 345,790
Ballotpedia:”[Ayotte] was defeated by New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan in the general election by 0.1 percent of the vote”
What if she had endorsed Trump and appeared at his rallies?
I want to see more polls of NH and Virginia!
They need to stop talking about Florida, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Those are not even in play this election, they are all easily Trump.
Was going to say, I remember when NH was RED.
Agreed.
Hillary won it by less than .5% in 2016
Honestly, surprised it took this long for any polling to show it right there especially with 3rd parties on the ballot
Been saying since the beginning of this cycle. 2016 is the base model of this race, not 2020.
Fully expect worst case Trump to get the 2016 map and add to it. If momentum doesn’t change, Trump will be adding a LOT more to the 2016 map.
There could be an exception here or there to the general statement, Trump willl get the 16 map plus some.. but any exception will not be enough to give The Potato victory.
A lot of those Massholes that moved north vote Republican...the real problem is NEW YORKERS and election day-tripper COLLEGE STUDENTS. (Take a good look at the behavior of New York in recent news...)
They also have an off the charts high property tax AND car registration fees.
New Hampshire is not blue. Vermont is the deep blue state next door.
I heard in Maine the state might flip, the second district of Maine is going big for Trump and the more Liberal First District is getting tighter. I’d love to see a new poll from Connecticut. One of my friends in Connecticut said that the Fifth District might flip.
Democrats would vote for a Ted Bundy/Scott Peterson ticket and not think twice about it.
Did they include the Massholes who regularly vote in New Hampshire in the poll?
A little voter registration data helps ‘splain this.
In 2020, Ds had an 87,000 lead in NH.
Today? Rs with a 44,000 lead.
Party Registration History 1970-2024
In late 2023 R's had taken an extremely slight lead in registrations over Democrats (with, as always, "Independents" having a greater number than either party).
Then suddenly in 2024, Democrat total has dropped, Independent total has dropped, Republican total has skyrocketed. Seems like the kind of "gift horse" whose mouth shouldn't be too closely examined. In NH, party registration AND how people vote, fluctuate all over the place. One year they look like they might be going back "red" and the next year they go lurching to the left. There is no consistent pattern and hasn't been one for many, many years.
Cheap booze too.
The NH State liquor stores sell at significantly less than the same item in other states. A big enough difference that it is not unusual to see people from MA loading up van loads in the parking lots.
There are more people who call themselves Independent/Undeclared than either Dems or Reps in NH now.
However, I when I speak to a lot of these people and ask them their views, they tend to be more Liberal than Conservative.
Most of them really just hate politics in general. They really do not like either side. Unfortunately, they also tend to be misinformed because they care more about the Bruins & Celtics and other forms of “bread and circuses” than politics.
The biggest issue in NH politics is that the Dems are BETTER FINANCED and BETTER ORGANIZED than the Republicans. I just spoke last week to a wealthy lawyer who is a major figure in a small bank I am an investor. He told me about how this woman who clerked with this DC person and who worked with this other prominent Dem in DC was going to run for the Congressional seat #2 that Annie Kuster was retiring from.
This woman has worked in DC for 20 years. So, she will have big Dem money funding her campaign for Congress NH2. Meanwhile, we have Lilly Tang Williams as the main person running on the Republican side.
You’re right. Sorry, over 50,000 flip.
No, not a gift horse. But, no, they don’t flip a lot. In fact, the GOP lead in NH was quite consistent until recently.
This, like AZ, may well reflect a lot of more conservative out-of-states moving in. For ex., Rich Baris tracked generationally the AZ immigrants from CA, and found that the 2000-ish wave was slightly left, the post 2010 wave overwhelmingly conservative. I suspect these 44,000 are conservative MA residents escaping.
They haven’t survived being a longtime satellite of the Boston media market AND absorbing all the leftists moving up from MA.
The border counties with the most Massachusetts refugees are deep red.
It’s the Vermont border counties, filled with New Yorkers who for some reason couldn’t settle down in a socialist paradise and crossed the Connecticut River to live in NH that are the deep blue areas.
I did not vote for Kelly Ayotte in 2016 and I’m glad she lost.
Poor decisions (withdrawing her support from Trump in October 2016) must have consequences if voting serves any purpose at all.
She’s supporting him this year, she’s the certain R nominee for Governor, and I will vote for her if she sticks with Trump.
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