"This Is Grim" One Democratic Pollster Says

New York Times ^ | December 6, 2023 | Thomas B. Edsall

[Jim Noble]

The predictive power of horse-race polling a year from the presidential election is weak at best. The Biden campaign can take some comfort in that.

But what recent surveys do reveal is that the coalition that put Biden in the White House in the first place is nowhere near as strong as it was four years ago...

These danger signs include fraying support among core constituencies, including young voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters, and the decline, if not the erasure, of traditional Democratic advantages in representing the interests of the middle class and speaking for the average voter.

Any of these on their own might not be cause for alarm, but taken together they present a dangerous situation for Biden...

Particularly worrisome for Democrats, who plan to demonize Trump as a threat to democracy, are the advantages Trump and Republicans have on opposing extremism (3 points), getting beyond the chaos (6 points) and protecting the Constitution (8 points)...

There is some evidence in both the Democracy Corp survey and in other polls that concerns specific to Biden — including his age and the surge in prices during his presidency — are driving the perception of Democratic weakness rather than discontent with the party itself...

The one ace in the hole for Democrats is Donald Trump himself. As the center of attention in the elections of 2018, 2020 and even 2022, Trump was the key to Democratic victory. Trump is doing all he can to become the focus in 2024, but the question remains whether the Democrats, with Biden at the top of the ticket, can successfully demonize him again.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

“Coalition”? Try “cheating”.

[Liz]

Particularly worrisome for Democrats, who “demonize Trump as a threat to democracy,” are the point advantages Trump and Republicans have on opposing extremism (3 points), getting beyond the chaos (6 points) and protecting the Constitution (8 points)...

There is evidence that concerns specific to Biden — including his age and the surge in prices during his presidency — are driving the perception of Democratic weakness......other danger signs include
<><>fraying support among core constituencies,
<><>diminishing young voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters,
<><>the decline, if not the decimation, of traditional Dem advantages
<><>Democrats’ claiming the high ground WRT middle-class interests
<><>and Dems speaking for the average voter.

[lepton]

With their ballot harvesting machine in place, and the Republican refusal to meaningfully engage in what is now a legal process (and suppressing their own vote as well), it may well not even get that far.

[unread]

“the coalition that put O’Biden in office”.. Is that what they call it nowadays.?

[sauropod]

Yep. Been aware of Little Tommy Edsall for years. IIRC, he wrote a book about the Iraq War. I remember when it was published.

[CaptainK]

Right now the Obama’s are worshipped. They aren’t going to rock the boat by the Mrs jumping back into politics.

[LS]

Jim, I have explained this til I’m blue in the face.

1) No one wants Harris. NO. ONE. She loses to Trump in polls far bigger than anyone else. In nearly THREE YEARS now they haven’t gotten rid of her because . . . they can’t.

2) There is a hard clock that has nothing to do with the DemoKKKrat Party or Rutabaga or whatever they “want.” It’s called ballots. They must be mailed by September. To be mailed, they must first be printed. To be printed they must first have the approval of the state GOP/DemoKKKrat Party. Once they are printed, they go BACK to the parties for review. Only then can they be sent out. That means the ballot PRINTING process starts in August. The DemoKKKrat convention is over in late July. This is the same type of “clock” problem Algore had in 2000. At some point the process and the machinery makes changes impossible.

So Rutabaga will be the nominee.

Even more: ALREADY Rutabaga has been spending a lot of money on ads. I’ve seen them. These bigger (multimillion) ad buys will already be in force and out by the beginning of summer.

So somehow in six months they have to figure out not only how to remove a sitting president who doesn’t want to leave AND a vice president who doesn’t want to leave and replace with who?

Newsome polls lower than Rutabaga. Cankles polls still lower. Please don’t say Michael. He is on permanent vacation with ex-prez Zero and has no interest in politics. Again, though, already you’d be talking about wasting MILLIONS of dollars in ads that have already run.

Rutabaga will be the nominee. Rutabaga will lose huge.

[LS]

The clock is ticking. You can’t go past early summer and him be replaced. Ballot printing, advertising. Just can’t happen process-wise.

[jmaroneps37]

“As long as their fraud machine is intact, they should be able to steal it again.”
THAT’S the ticket Surrender Monkey!
Bad news about the rodents’ chances is NEVER true and will never mean anything- right?
With Joey such a basket case now why would the rodents NOT want to keep him on the ticket?
All they have to do is cheat and things go along as usual.
They buy Joey a Play Station 5 sit him in his basement and run America into the ground for another four years until there is nothing left and WE will just sit and watch. Right?
America is worth fighting for and until the pry away 500 million guns from the hands of patriots it will always be a bad bet to go against us.

[Revolutionary]

Nailed it. But big Mike will be crushed and blacks will be a big part of the reason.

[ClearCase_guy]

But my other thought about 2024 is that”everybody knows” that black cities “always” vote heavily Democrat. Sure, you can take polls and see clearly that many blacks at this point have soured on the Democrats — but does it matter? When the funny vote counting is finished and we see Philadelphia and Baltimore and other cities appear to have voted 98% for the Democrat, won’t people just shrug and say “They always do that”?

I’m voting for Trump in 2024. But I do thinking voting is stupid at this point. The cheating is integral to the system. It’s expected and it cannot be questioned in the courts. Democrats will win all the races that they want to win. The opinion of the people doesn’t enter into the equation.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

What the polls say isn't nearly as important as ballot harvesting efforts in states where it's legal. Republicans should be preparing for serious competition in harvesting ballots right now - if they get caught doing nothing again, Biden will be re-elected. Simple as that.

We know Ronna McDaniel and the RNC will do absolutely nothing to help with this.

[ClearCase_guy]

I’m surprised at you.

You ought to know perfectly well that voters vote for Electors which have been chosen by the Party to support a Nominee.

The ballot may be printed with someone’s name on it, but if Joe steps out at the last minute, the voters can still vote for the same Electors to support the same Party. The nominee can change at any time no matter what the ballot says.

[LS]

Yes they can CHANGE THE NOMINEE BUT NOT THE BALLOTS.
It doesn’t matter if the ballots can’t be changed. Impossible to cheat at that point because 1/3-1/2 of all ballots are out with Rutabaga’s name on it.

So now you split the vote? Trump wins by 400 EVs? Yes, the ballots are critical, esp. since the “2000 mules” depended entirely on early and absentee ballots.

[38special]

They will manufacture as many ballots as they need.

[MinorityRepublican]

The Democrat Zombie voters and the Abortion crazies will be out in force.

Unmarried women will vote in lockstep for the Democratic Party. Thanks to Roe vs Wade.

It doesn't matter if we are making incremental gains everywhere else.

[Jim Noble]

I still think Joe will be expected to limp all the way to the Convention

Correct.

1) Have all passionate GOP voters revved up about "Brandon", as if he is the real problem. When he is "beaten" (forced to withdraw by clever memes and sites like this one), these people will (naturally) feel like THEY won something and will be lazy about Newsom when they should have been prepping for the past year.

2) All the GOPe candidates will be painted as elder abuse perps as the sobbing Biden family welcomes Newsom and Whitmer to the stage as the new face of the new Democrats.

[RasterMaster]

It was said prior to 2016 if the dems lost 5% of the black vote they'd have a tough road to hoe, but it would be doable and if they lost 10% of the black vote they were finished as a viable party. It was reported that they had lost 8% of the black vote in 2016. The massive cheating was not enough to overcome their losses.

In 2018 and 2020, they pushed the cheat even harder and squeaked out some "wins" but had lost far more than 10% of the black vote and why they have been in panic mode ever since, importing more "voters" and dumping them into their "safest" districts. If the fraud is stopped, they are TOAST!

[bantam]

Oh, not to worry, the Rats will find enough boxes of votes to win the close states, and if not, they have the vote counters in place to ensure victory!
Mail in voting has got to go!

[lurk]

Dems are super motivated. They are not motivated by Joe; they are motivated to stop Trump. And they still own the vote counting world.