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Army War College Report Predicts Mass Casualties in Near-Peer Fight Against [Russia] - Analysis
Substack ^ | Oct 2, 2022 | Simplicus the Thinker

Posted on 10/03/2023 8:04:12 AM PDT by Vlad0

A few weeks ago the U.S. Army War College released a paper which was an urgent call for the U.S. armed forces to adapt to the modern style of warfare being innovated in the Ukrainian conflict.

The paper made the rounds due to some startling admissions, which we’ll get to. But what’s most important to understand is that it represents a general shift in thinking that’s propagating throughout the entire sphere of the Atlanticist West, and was released in concert with several other key thinktank pieces and policy shift announcements from the EU, NATO, etc., which holistically represent an internal panic deep within their structures, resulting in an urgent need for a strategy change.

And this point is one of the central themes of the War College paper itself. Its opening preamble can be summarized in a single sentence: the current time period marked by the Ukrainian conflict represents the largest “inflection point” in 50 years of military history. The authors believe that the Yom Kippur War of 1973 was the previous most impactful inflection point. They recount how the U.S. army was demoralized by its experience in Vietnam, and inability to meet its objectives, followed by Israel almost losing to a Soviet-equipped Egypt in the Yom Kippur War.

(Excerpt) Read more at simplicius76.substack.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; Russia
KEYWORDS: draft; propaganda; russia; troll; vladtroll; war
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Excellent article, not paywalled. Also worth reading is the original article (linked) from the (U.S.) Army War College magazine.

Key points:


1 posted on 10/03/2023 8:04:12 AM PDT by Vlad0
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To: Travis McGee; Nextrush; SoConPubbie; adorno; hardspunned; WKUHilltopper; Howie66; ransomnote; ...
FYI.

Some of you may find this interesting.

2 posted on 10/03/2023 8:05:24 AM PDT by Vlad0
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To: Vlad0

“I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed.”


3 posted on 10/03/2023 8:09:12 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire, or both.)
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To: Vlad0

War college is a place where they send you to learn the process of decision making from the tactical to strategic to the national policy level. It is taught by a wide variety of people, some with war time military experience and others with more academic and historical prospective. Their opinions and predictions of the next war do not always agree, and that is by design.

While this article may be interesting, its just one of many that students at war college produce, and the mileage can vary. The main purpose is to generate debate and forward thinking.


4 posted on 10/03/2023 8:14:43 AM PDT by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: Vlad0

Bookmark


5 posted on 10/03/2023 8:14:44 AM PDT by Southside_Chicago_Republican (The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog. )
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To: Vlad0

Given how the country is deeply divided over the Ukraine war except for official Washington, you have to wonder how the public would react to thousands of American casualties and 100 million dollar fighters being shot down

I would hope the public would react with righteous anger and actually force action by Washington


6 posted on 10/03/2023 8:15:33 AM PDT by srmanuel
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To: srmanuel

War with Russia means Civil War here, half the country will simply refuse to fight and will resist efforts to force them too.

This ain’t 1941.


7 posted on 10/03/2023 8:18:38 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Vlad0
The rate of American casualties in a future USA vs. Russia war would be much higher than we saw in Afghanistan.

Paging Captain Obvious ...

This can only be a surprise to the opportunists in the upper echelons of the US military who saluted and went along with Bush's transformation of US heavy forces like armor and artillery into light infantry, believing that the history fairy had made any near peer warfare impossible.

Now do our shrunken, badly equipped and trained Navy vs. China.

8 posted on 10/03/2023 8:26:00 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: BenLurkin
“I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed.”

A very important point for all the trannies in the new "Action Army".

9 posted on 10/03/2023 8:26:30 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Biden Crime Family and Dem Party - Two Wholly Owned Subsidiaries of the CCP.)
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To: dfwgator
LOL. We have a stolen government imprisoning it's political opponents on false charges and no one is "resisting."

No one is going to resist squat because there is no political movement sufficiently organized to arrange any effective resistance. Individual acts of resistance will simply be crushed a will any attempt to organize an effective resistance.

We had better hope that Trump wins before the US is completely transformed into a one-party banana republic.

10 posted on 10/03/2023 8:30:39 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: dfwgator; UMCRevMom@aol.com; SpeedyInTexas; PIF
War with Russia means Civil War here, half the country will simply refuse to fight and will resist efforts to force them too.

Yes, I have another article coming up on that.

11 posted on 10/03/2023 8:31:02 AM PDT by Vlad0
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To: Vlad0

Conventional war with Russia will be Vietnam X2 or 3 or 4.

That’s if it doesn’t go nuclear, if it does were talking about 100’s of millions of dead Americans and Billions world wide.

That’s if we don’t go broke first.

But hey, Ukraine is more important than our own border.


12 posted on 10/03/2023 8:31:25 AM PDT by desertfreedom765
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To: Vlad0

I don’t disagree with the paper.

But the idea of the USA attacking Russia, in Russia, by any sort of conventional means, is absurd. Never happen.

Defending against Chinese aggression, however, is fairly likely. In fact, the Chinese have stated their intent to kill all non-Han Chinese in the Americas and to take over the two continents.


13 posted on 10/03/2023 8:35:48 AM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: desertfreedom765

Russia is big and flat. There’s nothing major geographically from stopping armor from rolling into Moscow, if that’s what you want to do.

However, it doesn’t have to happen. Seems like the Press and Politicians really want a war with Russia.


14 posted on 10/03/2023 8:37:11 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: RinaseaofDs
There’s nothing major geographically from stopping armor from rolling into Moscow, if that’s what you want to do.

"Bitch, Bitte!"

15 posted on 10/03/2023 8:38:44 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Vlad0

Did they mention the fact that our politically correct Diversity, Equity and Inclusiveness/Tranny army has been rendered completely incapable of actually fighting?

I honestly wouldn’t mind flushing the toilet by loading the military full of those types and letting Russia wipe it out and rid us of them.


16 posted on 10/03/2023 8:39:34 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: pierrem15
No one is going to resist squat because there is no political movement sufficiently organized to arrange any effective resistance.

How many people refused the vaccine, despite all the pressure put on them to take it?

Not all resistance has to involve taking up arms and forming into squadrons to fight people.

Draft Evasion in the Vietnam War

More than half of the 27 million men eligible for the draft during the Vietnam War were deferred, exempted or disqualified.

The head of U.S. President Richard Nixon's task force on the all-volunteer military reported in 1970 that the number of resisters was "expanding at an alarming rate" and that the government was "almost powerless to apprehend and prosecute them". It is now known that, during the Vietnam era, approximately 570,000 young men were classified as draft offenders, and approximately 210,000 were formally accused of draft violations; however, only 8,750 were convicted and only 3,250 were jailed Some draft eligible men publicly burned their draft cards, but the Justice Department brought charges against only 50, of whom 40 were convicted.

So, just spitballin' here: but do you think that number / percent that don't view the Government as legitimate and aren't willing to turn themselves over to the U.S. Military for conscripted service in a big-ass war with Russia over the Biden's private corruption outlet - would be BIGGER or SMALLER than the percent that evaded the draft in the early 1970s, before it was abolished.

Because I'm pretty sure the NEW anti-draft movement will DWARF the one that they shut down in 1973.Remember: it was only shut down by ending the draft in 1973.

Where I'm from we call that "capitulation", which is fancy word for "losing the argument" over whether FedGov can make people fight for it.

17 posted on 10/03/2023 8:42:26 AM PDT by Vlad0
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To: Vlad0

Thanks for posting a summary.

Samuel L. Jackson says “check out the brains on those guys”.

Just one thing, reading between the lines, it seems that it’s less about Russia and more about China.

JMNSHO Russia understands what scorched earth is about and can usually be dealt with by negotiation.

China/CCP, they’re not as pragmatic as Russia. They literally don’t care if they kill off more than half of their own. The CCP, that is. Yes, the same CCP that owns Zhao.

JMNSHO


18 posted on 10/03/2023 8:49:47 AM PDT by OKSooner (Nucular combat, toe to toe with the Rooskies! )
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To: srmanuel

I would hope the public would react with righteous anger and actually force action by Washington

As it is right now, the public is complacent and asleep at the job in regards what is taking place in corrupt D.C. It will have to get much worse before they take notice and by then it probably will be too late.


19 posted on 10/03/2023 8:51:43 AM PDT by Saintgermain
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To: Vlad0
Depends on the number of people and how far the government will go.

The anti-war movement in the 1960s was treated with kid gloves because it was leftist. The current regime is very unlikely to be so lenient.

They'll not only go after the draft dodgers but the parents as well for "conspiracy" to evade the draft. The parents will lose their jobs, be subject to arrest, their other children will be subject to being harassed at school, bullied online and denied admission to college. You won't even be able to register your car, your bank balances will be frozen and credit cards canceled.

There are a thousand techniques of coercion available when you exercise unchecked authority.

20 posted on 10/03/2023 8:54:24 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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