Posted on 05/03/2023 11:07:08 AM PDT by nickcarraway
The world's most expensive monument to overconfidence is nearer than you think…
I'm talking about Forest City, a massive ghost town right across the Causeway. This development is around 1,740 hectares (17.4 square kilometres), which is almost the entirety of Jurong East or apparently four times the size of Monaco.
It was built by Country Garden (China's largest developer) supposedly to the tune of $100 billion. But as of 2019, only 500 out of the expected 700,000+ residents were living there.
I've had a chance to briefly visit the place, and while we can crack any number of jokes about it — the world's most expensive horror movie set, world's biggest bar*, condo with 100,000 sq ft yard — it's also a massive problem waiting to happen.
An entire almost empty neighbourhood is a ripe set-up for squatters, crime, fires, and hygiene issues. It's a matter of time before mother nature beats the scant maintenance staff, and the vermin start to move in… and given Malaysia's reputation for build quality, I don't have high hopes for how it's going to turn out.
All of this due to speculation and overconfidence: the certainty that the High-Speed Rail would have been operational by the time of completion, the surety that businesses would be rushing into Iskandar, and even the boldness of demolishing a local village to build a 700,000+ resident condo (an insane number by any reckoning).
There are other problems too. According to an Insider piece, Forest City is built on reclaimed land, and given how fast they tried to build it, that didn't give the reclaimed land enough time to settle. So cracks have appeared in areas, and sections of the road have sunk.
Herein lies a risk that many condo buyers don't consider since it almost never happens locally: the risk that, even if your project is completed, it can end up a total disaster.
When a project the size of Forest City fails, it's not something the government can just leave there (for the aforementioned reasons). Once the hazard of vermin, crime, and other issues take root, and it needs to be torn down, there's no telling what the condo owners will get in return.
But it's likely that, when the buyers bought their units, their main worries were about quality and non-completion. Who would have thought that even with the project finished, there could be a risk of it being a ghost town?
It's worth thinking about, before committing to giant-scale, speculative projects overseas.
*Forest City is in a special economic zone without alcohol tax, so you'll find shops selling alcohol, and their customers, still hanging around there.
In the meantime, we have ABSD issues to contend with locally.
There's a bit less reaction this time because Singaporeans have become a bit jaded by ABSD increases (but also the big jumps have really been for foreigners). In the property industry sure, it's always exciting news — but after reaching out, I've begun to sense a rather "meh" reaction. Realistically, how many can afford a second property in Singapore anyway?
My cousin's reaction, I think, has become the norm; and it goes along the lines of:
"Please, as if I can afford to own two houses in one lifetime. Even if I am going to buy privately, I still have no ABSD. 17 per cent, 20 per cent, 100 per cent, all also no difference to me."
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Now I don't think this is right, as raising the ABSD does have an effect even on upgraders. Fewer people buying a second or third home, for instance, ensures that prices don't rise so far that the average Singaporean can't afford it.
However, ABSD has developed what I call the "spleen effect."
Do you know what your spleen does? I bet not. You likely wouldn't know or care, until the day it stops working — then it's a nightmare and you'll realise how badly you need one.
The same goes for ABSD. I think it's one of those policies that works well and does its job — but no one really notices, precisely because it's working. If we were to remove ABSD overnight, then we'd feel the impact… and I think there would be blood in the streets.
Bear in mind, the ABSD amount alone (typically upward of $270,000 at least) would make it possible for many more Singaporeans to keep their HDB flat, and also buy a second property.
While we first saw ABSD as a hindrance — and more recently as another "meh" policy gesture — it is an instrument that has kept private homes within reasonable reach for upgraders.
If you build it, they won’t come.
I can’t see the Forest for the City..................
Send them the illegal aliens
Turn it into a prison penal institution. Locals can work putting them to work. Pay them minimum wage while profiting on the labor of the ‘indentured’. They’ll be motivated to up their ‘profits’ while keeping the place clean.
Maybe Spider-man will move in ,LOL
Well, there you go! A perfect solution for the homeless problem.
Finally, I spotted the duty-free shop — and, just as the couple on the beach had said, it was indeed full of people. It was the busiest spot in the entire development.
ABSD = Additional Buyers Stamp Duty but I knew everybody already knew that.
15 minute cities?
I don’t think I’d want to live in a high-rise built by a Chinese company.
The Chinese have built many empty cities like this across China. These are not mistakes. The Chinese and Malays are planning to forcefully relocate people into these cities. These were built in anticipation of the “Great Reset”
Children playing with dominos comes to mind. Whoopse there they fall.
Lets ship them over! Tropical paradise baby!
Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD)
...especially one built on a landfill (dump)!
“I can’t see the Forest for the City...”
They clear cut the forest to build the city.
Here are some fine examples of quality Chinese construction...
https://tinyurl.com/5n6ttxte
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