Research suggests first below-average hurricane season since 2014

The Hill ^ | 04/14/2023 | NICK ROBERTSON

[ChicagoConservative27]

After nearly a decade-long onslaught of strong hurricane seasons, Southerners may be finally catching a break this year, as Colorado State University (CSU) researchers project a below-average season for the first time since 2014.

The CSU forecast anticipates 13 named storms this season, compared to the average of 14.4, with six of them becoming hurricanes.

Stronger-than-expected outcomes are still possible as mixed signals from water temperatures and wind forecasts mean that this year’s projection is more uncertain than most, the researchers said.

“Our analog seasons exhibited a wide range of outcomes, from below-normal seasons to hyperactive seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, the report’s lead writer. “This highlights the large uncertainty that exists with this outlook.”

[ChicagoConservative27]

Greta is pissed

[George from New England]

Crystal ball at work again I see.

[ken in texas]

Fewer hurricanes? So, does that mean global warming is good after all? ;-)

[BenLurkin]

This must be climate “crisis” we’ve been hearing about.

[ClearCase_guy]

a decade-long onslaught of strong hurricane seasons

I do recall endless predictions of this.
But I don't recall 10 years of actual bad hurricanes. Did I miss it?

[Alas Babylon!]

I don’t believe a word they say.

So I’m going to prep my generator, Sta-bul my gasoline and buy some extra plywood.

They keep saying every year there will be more hurricanes because climate change. And then we didn’t have as many. Every year has been more like historical storms in the past—which, to a logical person, makes the most sense.

So now they’re saying there’ll be LESS storms?

I’ll take the opposite because they don’t know what the Hell they’re talking about in April.

[fwdude]

Watch. This will be depicted as “evidence” of glo-bull warming as well. Somehow.

[citizen]

After nearly a decade-long onslaught of strong hurricane seasons,

---

My perception is very nealy the opposite. I live in the SE USA and hurricane seasons have been rather muted.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

"After nearly a decade-long onslaught of strong hurricane seasons..."

August 26, 2017: "Hurricane Harvey roared ashore near Corpus Christi as Category 4 storm late Friday night, breaking a record 4,323-day (142-month, 12-year) major hurricane drought."

What happened to that 12-year "hurricane drought" that ended six years ago?

“Our analog seasons exhibited a wide range of outcomes, from below-normal seasons to hyperactive seasons. This highlights the large uncertainty that exists with this outlook.”

Allow me to translate: "We are just guessing about this hurricane season, but, trust us, the world will warm up by 0.1 degree in 100 years if we don't stop using all fossil fuels."

[jeffersondem]

“My perception is very nealy the opposite. I live in the SE USA and hurricane seasons have been rather muted.”

This is my recollection as well. Sure there have been some storms. But to imply every year since 2014 has been above average - I don't buy that.

[lilypad]

Can you please convince the insurance companies here in Florida. They are leaving by the droves and the premiums are unaffordable.

[chajin]

This reminds me of how an economics teacher of mine explained unemployment statistics. He said that there were really only three levels of unemployment: 0%, meaning I have a job, 50%, meaning I have less of a job than I need, and 100%, meaning I don’t have a job.

The same can be said of hurricanes: there could be ten or a hundred, but the only hurricane that matters is the one passing over my house, like Ian last year; whether there are nine or ninety-nine others is irrelevant.

[God luvs America]

No- you don’t understand- fewer hurricanes is the result of global warming. Its a bad thing we are having fewer hurricanes due to global warming!!! (say the climate change loons)

[Red Badger]

Which means we’re in for some real doozies......................

[Freedumb]

Here are the actual numbers:

2022 14
2021 21
2020 30
2019 18
2018 15
2017 17
2016 15
2015 11
2014 8
2013 14

So really it’s been above average for the last 7 years but one year was just below average and 2 years just above the average.

What really shapes our memory though is not how many total storms but how many storms actually reach land and of those how many are major hurricanes.

[dfwgator]

Translation: We’re gonna get clobbered.

[SheepWhisperer]

“I’m Jim Cramer and this forecast has been brought to you by Pfizer”

[crusty old prospector]

You have forgotten about all those one-day tropical storms out by the Azores that get named.

[Freedumb]

Btw, my numbers are for North Atlantic named storms, not hurricanes.

[ken in texas]

Ah, thank you. It’s just so hard to keep track of things these days. ;-)