Posted on 11/26/2022 3:50:35 AM PST by FarCenter
Economic consequences of the invasion
After losing a relatively modest 4% of GDP to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the Ukrainian economy grew at a healthy 3.2% in 2021 and was expected to grow at the same pace in 2022. The sudden Russian invasion upset this forecast. The initial stage of the invasion hit the capital Kiev and ten regions, which jointly account for 55% of pre-war GDP.
Ukraine’s GDP shrank by 15.1% in the first quarter of 2022 – the year-on-year decline recorded in March 2022 was a massive 45%. In the second quarter, GDP fell by a staggering 37.2%.
Today, the fighting continues in the regions that account for less than 15% of pre-war GDP. But even so, the World Bank estimates that the Ukrainian economy will shrink by one-third in 2022, a far higher number than the typical threshold of 15% that economists use to start referring to a severe economic recession as an economic disaster.
Bar chart showing effect war on Ukraine's economy. Ukraine’s economy was recovering, until Russia invaded. State Statistics Service of Ukraine What makes the economic consequences of the war even more dramatic is that the aggregate numbers above have unequal distribution across the country and socioeconomic groups. One way to illustrate this is to look at the extreme poverty rate, defined here as living on less than US$5.5 per person per day.
Before the war, only 2.5% of Ukrainians lived in extreme poverty, similar to Italy and Spain. The war abruptly changed this. The World Bank estimates that the number of Ukrainians in extreme poverty will likely increase tenfold in 2022 and will continue to grow in 2023. The poverty rates will be higher still in the regions closer to the front line, due to shortages.
This will accelerate the inflation rate and erode purchasing power. Government support for the low and middle-income parts of the population is crucial in this situation.
“Ukrainians understand that if they stop fighting, there will be no Ukraine.”
That may or may not be true, but it’s for certain - if this war continues, there will be a lot less Ukrainians.
But that doesn’t seem to matter to Washington or Kiev.
We have been fed this narrative since 2014. The end is unpredictable, but it won’t bring back the dead.
—> they’re losing $10 billion every week from lost gas sales
They may be deferring sales for now to the western globohomos nations, but the oil will eventually sell - and the globohomos nations will suffer the most economically until then.
you’re dreaming
once Europe gets used to doing without Russian oil, there’s no reason to go back
Russia could be shut out permanently ... that would literally cut the Russian economy is half
all because they couldn’t stay within their own borders
oh well
The real disaster is yet to come. Between now and the end of the war biden will be sending them billions. When it’s over he’ll be sending them a huge amount of money to “rebuild” ukraine.
Money coming out of our pockets.
Today, in Ukraine, the memory of millions of victims of the Holodomor is being honored, 90 years later. The number of victims of the Holodomor of 1932-1933, according to various estimates, varies from 3 to 7 million people.
Kharkiv, 1932.
Stalin’s NKVD troops guard grain confiscated from Ukrainian peasants during Holodomor.
Starving peasants tried to enter cities to find food, but NKVD troops had been stationed in so-called “Iron Rings” around the cities, shooting all peasants trying to enter
While likely way down the list of Ukrainian historical financial corruption and malfeasance, apparently all that crypto-currency investment with FTX and SBF haven’t worked out so well.
Ukrainians have clearly shown they are willing to fight and yes die, instead of being under Putin's boot. Our War for Independence lasted for 7 years and many Americans did not survive. Were they wrong?
Nothing about Ukraine’s economy is trustworthy. Ukraine is a money laundering operation for foreign governments, including the United States.
Nothing about Russia’s economy is trustworthy. Russia is a police-state dictatorship that lies to us all the time.
“Ukrainians have clearly shown they are willing to fight and yes die, instead of being under Putin’s boot. Our War for Independence lasted for 7 years and many Americans did not survive. Were they wrong?”
No they weren’t wrong. But they had an ocean between them and their enemy. If it had been us versus Canada, we might still be fighting.
But this goes right back to my point. Name a situation at this point, other than outright surrender and retreat that will satisfy Ukrainian peace demands. There’s not one. The war will continue.
Right, because invaders who robbed, raped and killed should be rewarded with territory. Because this time, Putin will honor a treaty on Ukraine's borders. Okay
Just how long do you expect to live?
Americans will be doing without heat this winter.
I understand your feelings. And I’m not trying to be a snit by saying that I wish a solution could have been found in February.
But instead, we have been fed a constant diet of grievance, pain, anger and defiance. Our media is almost completely invested in one side, and I don’t see a positive outcome.
No one is pretending otherwise like they do with Ukraine.
We send Russia money in exchange for gas, oil, valuable metals, etc. Globalists direct corrupt Democrats to send taxpayer money to corrupt politicians in Ukraine for nothing other than to keep the money laundering operation in business.
“That may or may not be true, but it’s for certain - if this war continues, there will be a lot less Ukrainians.”
Ukrainians would rather die on their feet than live on their knees.....something some so-called conservatives believed in back in the day.
I think that’s an unfounded opinion.
The majority of the world is not sanctioning Russia - including almost all Asia.
They will gladly purchase oil.
but the whole Russian oil distribution system is based around Europe
most (90%) of their oil pipelines go there
so when the official EU oil boycott kicks in next week, Russia WILL be hooped in a big way
which probably explains Russia’s desperation to get this war over with asap
How much economic activity is lost on the other side of this equation? Economic destruction is certainly happening in Europe as they no longer have nat gas feedstocks and heat. Not to mention what is happening with fertilizer. Spring planting season will be interesting, so will a reduced harvest.
“economic destruction is certainly happening in Europe” ??
link please
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