Posted on 11/16/2022 6:35:38 AM PST by karpov
Donald Trump announced his 2024 presidential campaign Tuesday night, heavy with the odor of a man fighting the last war. But politics is all about matching the man to the moment. Trump’s moment was six years ago. The nation’s voters have moved on, and if early signs are any indication, Republican primary voters are ready to consider doing so as well.
The 2022 midterms were about as decisive a failure for Trump as it was possible for them to be. Consider, as one item of evidence, the exit polls. Exit polls are not perfect; even though they should have the advantage over other polls of polling only people who actually voted, they still have their known biases and shortcomings. Still, they are the only evidence we get of who voted for whom and why at the time of the actual election, and when they deliver messages in bold, screaming letters, we should listen.
The 2022 exit polls examined the national House electorate and 19 Senate and/or governors races across eleven states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. Two of the clearest findings across all of these races are that (1) Donald Trump is profoundly unpopular with the people who voted in 2022 and (2) Trump was a fatal drag on many Republican candidates.
On the first point, look at Trump’s favorability ratings. He is viewed unfavorably by a solid majority of the midterm voters nationally (by a 19-point margin of 58 percent to 39 percent), and in every state polled, even places such as Texas (52 percent disapproval to 45 percent approval), Ohio (53 percent to 44 percent), and North Carolina (53 percent to 43 percent) that he won two years ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
The negative drumbeat from the RINO’s and leftist that fear Trump begin...
2 Corinthians 2:11
“Lest Satan should get an advantage of us: for we are not ignorant of his devices.”
More disinformation.
“..... even places such as Texas (52 percent disapproval to 45 percent approval),....”
Prolly polled Harris and Travis counties where must of the Libtards languish.
If I am Trump and I win the nomination I shell out the funds to ballot harvest like the Democrats and beat them at their own games. If RNC consultants or members of congress recommend anything, I ignore them and probably do the opposite. I ABSOLUTELY do not tell the RNC or Republicans in congress anything about my strategy for the election, they are liberal scum.
OK, let's look at results.
Here's Trump's hand-picked endorsements in the swing states that he lost in '20 and that he'll need to win in '24 if he wants to win the election.
Governors:
Lombardo: W
Lake: L
Mastriano: L
Michels: L
Dixon: L
Perdue: L
Senate:
Johnson: W
Walker: RO
Masters: L
Oz: L
Laxalt: L
Bolduc: L
Secretaries of State:
Finchem: L
Karamo: L
Marchant: L
Hice: L
So now we know on whom they concentrated the election fraud.
Troll.
It’s not satanic to support or oppose Trump.
Yawn
NR is in dire need of a good enema, sooner rather
than later.
It IS Satanic to attack God’s second chosen people specifically because they say they are and act like it.
National Review. 🙄
If you are batting .900 in the Big Leagues you would be rounding the bases in a horse drawn carriage. Every arena the world over would be singing your praises. They would be demanding that you play in their leagues. Then...Trump.
NR's thinksters just can't get over their disdain for working people, who used to "know their place" and stay down in the union/Democrat sphere. Who let the smelly Walmart folks into NR's Republican party? they want to know.
A pox on NR.
Then tell him to run. As it stands right here right now, Trump has announced his intentions. Where is the 8th Day Wonder? He who hesitates, is lost.
The National Spew ^ | November 11, 2020 | Dan McLaughlin
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3904974/posts
All DeSantis has to do is stand back and let President Trump insult some more Republicans.
In the meantime the remaining Trump supporters will insult everybody else.
Sun Tzu—Never interrupt your opponent when they are destroying themselves.
Lake, as much as I liked her, did NOT have overwhelming pre-election popularity. She was ahead in the polls by around 2%. Based on previous years, I assumed that meant she was ahead by 5-6%, but she didn’t poll overwhelming. And there are multiple states where the polling was off by 3% in favor or Republicans.
Also, her comments about McCain in the final days of the election may have hurt her in Maricopa. Tabulators were only an issue for a few hours. Didn’t hear anything about paper being the wrong size.
And here in Pima County, very liberal Pima County, there were no ballot issues. Nor were there any issues in the heavily red rural counties.
Bitter Robson Republicans (aka McCain Republicans) are sufficient to account for our losses. Where was Ducey? Crickets. The AG went on national TV to attack Lake the weekend before the election. Robson? Disappeared!
The Friday before the election, Kari Lake said, “Boy, Arizona has delivered some losers, haven’t they? We don’t have any McCain Republicans in here, do we? Well, get the hell out!”
In Pima, I didn’t hear that until after the election. I fully agree with the sentiments. I refused to vote for McCain in his last two general elections. But it wouldn’t have helped her any in Maricopa. If that comment got air play in Maricopa, it could have cost her 50,000 votes. Which would be the difference between winning and losing.
“Exit polling showing Dems got 17% of the same-day in-person vote, but the actual recorded votes showing Dem totals so high, they’d have had to get 100% of the Dem AND 100% of the independent vote”
Actually, Kari got 55% of the election day vote in Maricopa. She needed just a little more. After all, she only fell 17,000 votes short out of 2.6 million cast - about 0.6%.
Maricopa voter registration is 34.3% Republican, 34.6% Independent and 30.3% Democrat. So if Kari got all of the Republican vote on election day, she still carried a majority of Independents - about 70% of independents. But the early vote in Arizona is huge and it wasn’t quite enough. Very close, but not quite.
And yes, Maricopa voting sucks. Since 4 of 5 members of the Board of Supervisors are Republicans, that doesn’t say much for Maricopa Republicans - who tend to be Big Business, Cheap Labor, and Social Liberals.
If Trump can’t win, DeSantis will fail miserably.
Gee — NeverTrump FormerlyConservative National Review thinks Trump is toxic. Will wonders never cease.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.