Posted on 11/16/2022 6:35:38 AM PST by karpov
Donald Trump announced his 2024 presidential campaign Tuesday night, heavy with the odor of a man fighting the last war. But politics is all about matching the man to the moment. Trump’s moment was six years ago. The nation’s voters have moved on, and if early signs are any indication, Republican primary voters are ready to consider doing so as well.
The 2022 midterms were about as decisive a failure for Trump as it was possible for them to be. Consider, as one item of evidence, the exit polls. Exit polls are not perfect; even though they should have the advantage over other polls of polling only people who actually voted, they still have their known biases and shortcomings. Still, they are the only evidence we get of who voted for whom and why at the time of the actual election, and when they deliver messages in bold, screaming letters, we should listen.
The 2022 exit polls examined the national House electorate and 19 Senate and/or governors races across eleven states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. Two of the clearest findings across all of these races are that (1) Donald Trump is profoundly unpopular with the people who voted in 2022 and (2) Trump was a fatal drag on many Republican candidates.
On the first point, look at Trump’s favorability ratings. He is viewed unfavorably by a solid majority of the midterm voters nationally (by a 19-point margin of 58 percent to 39 percent), and in every state polled, even places such as Texas (52 percent disapproval to 45 percent approval), Ohio (53 percent to 44 percent), and North Carolina (53 percent to 43 percent) that he won two years ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Screw the polls. They all were totally wrong this election. Everyone lies to them these days.
The exit polls that said 73% wrong track? Meaningless. National Review has been telling us that the electorate agrees with them for the last 15 years. President Romney
BS
Always look to the author - National Review has had it out for Trump since the very beginning.
National Review has been worthless for years...........
I wanted to leave a comment on the article at “national review” but you have to make an account. Probably good for them, because I was going to flame that pud to a crisp.
TDS-ers are toxic.
National Review = Lincoln Project
Truth. I would vote for him, however, he has become the aging player, loved for past glory, likely never to be repeated.
Playing by today’s rules, which ARE NOT changing, how does he win?
NR said the same crap six years ago too. Now they say that was “his moment”.
When was Joe Biden’s moment? 1974?
Nixon started his comeback in 1966. the rest is history.
The poll methodology is important to know. If it’s valid, the poll is the poll. Whether or not people choose to discount the results at that point is, well, either based on objective or subjective reasons.
But as I have said, people will generally believe polls that validate a person’s viewpoints.
He wins by playing the STEAL GAME better than they do GAME ON!!!
I believe the polls were wrong because you cannot poll ballots.
I believe Trump is the “presumptive Republican nominee” for 2024.
Ground game adoption of the new tactics really. Havr yo have Republicans in the cities with cohrage for a ground game ballot harvesting, while doing the same thing in rural areas.
Also need to spend money on add space, including mailed pampletes to Republicans months in advance.
We have to assume people start voting in early vote states as soon as it becomes possible.
I think he gets above 80 million popular vote he wins. Why? Because IMO I don’t think the Cheat-a-crats can repeat the 81 Million BS in ‘24.
Posting National Review?
Are you a glutton for punishment?
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