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Russian forces must retreat from the Dnipro before winter – or face defeat
The Wavell Room ^ | November 1, 2022 | Sergio Miller

Posted on 11/06/2022 8:30:37 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

On 9 February 2017, European Space Agency astronaut Thomas Pesquet, a member of the Expedition 50 crew, captured a winter landscape image from the International Space Station. It was of the Dnipro River. The photograph showed a great, coursing white snake that reminded Pesquet of a Japanese ‘Hokusai painting’. The white was ice and it explains why Russian forces on the Dnipro right bank now face a ‘difficult situation’, as described by General Sergei Surovikin, the recently appointed operational commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

In winter the Dnipro freezes over, usually after a 20-day spell of sub-zero temperatures. A frozen river would halt Russian ferry and pontoon operations. Resupply would become impossible. The average freezing and thawing dates for Kherson are 3 January and 3 March. The ice regime is not consistent or predictable: in some years the Dnipro freezes for short intervals; in others it does not freeze at all. The freezing (ice) moves southwards. Additionally, as Ukrainian Major-General Serhiy Savchenko has explained, ‘when the coastal waters of the Dnipro are covered with ice, it will be impossible to use ferry crossings.’ His assessment is Russian forces will seek to withdraw by the end of November. Is he right?

(Excerpt) Read more at wavellroom.com ...


TOPICS: Russia
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1 posted on 11/06/2022 8:30:37 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican
Sure. The whole electric grid is on the verge of collapse in Ukraine. Ukraine doesn't have an sufficient air defense. But, the Russians are going to retreat in defeat.

Just more unbelievable propaganda.

2 posted on 11/06/2022 8:36:57 PM PST by Kazan
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To: MinorityRepublican

3 posted on 11/06/2022 8:37:54 PM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire, or both.)
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To: Kazan

You Russians have already retreated multiple times during this war.


4 posted on 11/06/2022 8:44:04 PM PST by Cronos (.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

The Red Army and the Wehrmacht dealt with such conditions for several winters.


5 posted on 11/06/2022 8:51:54 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: MinorityRepublican

The Russians have artillery that can shoot over rivers.

Rifle ammo and rations can be sent over rivers by cables and pulleys.


6 posted on 11/06/2022 8:54:22 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: MinorityRepublican
Imagine thinking a frozen river will pose a problem to people from Russia.


7 posted on 11/06/2022 9:15:24 PM PST by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera )
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To: MinorityRepublican

Kherson is a trap for the Ukrainian Army. Russia has evicted the civilian population and will have troops garrisoned in many buildings that will have to be taken a la Hue City or Faluja.

Their arty is dug in on the other side of the river and can hit anywhere in the city in support of their troops. Kherson will be destroyed in the fighting just like Mariupol.

The Uks would be smart to bypass or isolate and cut off Kherson and let the Russian troops run out of supplies.


8 posted on 11/06/2022 9:17:31 PM PST by Uncle Lonny
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To: MinorityRepublican

Sergio Miller
Author

Sergio Miller is a former British Army Intelligence Corps officer who served in Special Forces...

No bias there.


9 posted on 11/06/2022 9:35:48 PM PST by McGruff (Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*** things up - Barack Obama)
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To: MinorityRepublican

This helps explain some of Ukraine’s recent strategy, but that’s all I’ll say.


10 posted on 11/06/2022 10:06:05 PM PST by nagant
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To: McGruff
Sergio Miller is a former British Army Intelligence Corps officer who served in Special Forces...

Just another ankle-grabbing Brit poofter.

Probably has a second job as a rentboy for UK Asian grooming gangs.

Wonder if he's got any OnlyFans vids for the gay crowd up on the Interwebs?

11 posted on 11/06/2022 10:12:36 PM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Only in your dreams.


12 posted on 11/06/2022 10:14:26 PM PST by taxesareforever (Islam is an ideology. It is NOT a religion.)
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To: McGruff

I’ve heard that zElenskyy doesn’t buy toilet paper any more, having replaced it with Sergio Miller’s patented “Wash And Simonize”.


13 posted on 11/06/2022 10:16:10 PM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: mac_truck
Imagine thinking a frozen river will pose a problem to people from Russia.

A river frozen deeply enough to hold truck/tank traffic can be, if it has a smooth surface, a boon to military transport. A river frozen too deeply for normal boat traffic, but not deeply enough to hold truck/tank traffic, or with a jagged surface from cycles of freezing and thawing, can be a significant barrier to military transport.

14 posted on 11/06/2022 10:25:00 PM PST by Pilsner
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To: MinorityRepublican

And here I thought that the Russians transported not only men and material over the frozen rivers in the 1940’s but in some areas and cases even tanks and artillery.

Guess they forgot how to do the HUH?


15 posted on 11/06/2022 11:26:28 PM PST by 5th MEB (Progressives in the open; --- FIRE FOR EFFECT!!)
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To: McGruff

British Army Intelligence (read military intelligence).

That’s an OXYMORON right there.

I did 2 tours in the RVN (I Corps, Quang Tri Provence) and I never knew military intelligence to get any thing even remotely right.


16 posted on 11/06/2022 11:56:59 PM PST by 5th MEB (Progressives in the open; --- FIRE FOR EFFECT!!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

I recall breathless reports that the 'Russians were losing' in territory that the Russians were ignoring while pursuing strategic gains.

When the Russians redeploy, move their troops, the Ukrainian shills shrieked the Russians were fleeing for their lives.

When the Russians were practicing restraint (whether saving ammo or saving infrastructure) the Ukrainian propagandists cheered that they are too weak and depressed to fight. When the gloves came off and Putin began to excercise punishing force, the Ukrainian propagandists assure us he's a monster  who only wants to kill, kill, kill.

This whole time, the Zelensky's militias/contractors/military have been steadily losing, on FR we keep getting 'fresh off the field' reports that they are winning. General MacGregor makes the point that Russian forces destroyed most of the Ukraine's 600,000 troops in the first 4 months and by now, most of Zelensky's remaining troops are basically cannon fodder with little training, being given guns and told to fight.

This article seems to celebrate and puff up imaginary problems with the Dnipro river. Like Russians are unfamiliar with rivers that freeze? Like they don't have weapons that can 'reach out and touch someone' when they have already crushed almost half of Kyiv's power grid with missiles.

More importantly, once again, the Russians aren't really interested in the west bank of the Dnipro  asside from neutralizing missile batteries or other weaponry and air defenses there. General MacGregor notes, in his video:

"Now where

11:37

will the Russians stop? I suspect they'll

11:39

stop at the Dnipro River. They've never

11:41

been interested in crossing that. They

11:43

don't want to go into what is

11:45

historically Ukraine, which is west of

11:46

the river that's where the Ukrainians

11:49

live. They're not Russified. They are real

11:51

Ukrainians"

So the regions to the east of the Dnipro river, where Russian speaking citizens voted for their region to join Russia are of interest to Putin, but he doesn't WANT to stay in traditionally Ukrainian regions.

THIS is the 'big strategical advantage' that the Ukrainian propagandists are spinning right now - the fact that Putin doesn't want to stay west of the river is almost like the Ukrainians are ....winning....again?

What ever Putin doesn't want in the first place, the Ukrainians will call a hard won or strategic victory.

The most important thing to remember about the Ukraine is that the Democrat party leadership, including Schumer, Pelosi and Biden(s) all have sons who have served as fixers and money mules - ferrying money to and from the Ukraine, saturating the region with corruption and using the citizens as props and cannon fodder. America's Deep Staters rely on access to billions of dollars in 'aid to the Ukraine' and other corruption/bribes as long as the Ukraine remains the globalists money laundromat  and leads it's proxy war.

For those interested, here's the video link (17 minute video) wherein Gen MacGregor provides a good overview of why Russia is in Ukraine, what it wants and what it is likely to do, the destruction of Zelensky's troops etc.

Straight Calls 2 - No chance of negotiations in Ukraine

Zelenksy will be out one way or another - no way for him to win. And when Zelensky is removed, the citizens get another chance at an actual leader. Prayers up - may God grant the long suffering people of the Ukraine the chance to pick their own, good leader.


17 posted on 11/07/2022 2:10:01 AM PST by ransomnote (IN GOD WE TRUST)
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To: 5th MEB

I did one tour in RVN, and that was enough for me. I didn’t like it much. 🤪🤗👎


18 posted on 11/07/2022 2:22:54 AM PST by Mark17 (Retired USAF air traffic controller. Father of USAF pilot. USAF aviation runs in the family )
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To: Brian Griffin

You win the Internets for the day!!!
We have a Winner!
Nice job.👍


19 posted on 11/07/2022 3:41:46 AM PST by MotorCityBuck ( Keep the change, you filthy animal! )
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To: BenLurkin

20 posted on 11/07/2022 4:26:05 AM PST by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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