Posted on 11/04/2022 8:00:48 AM PDT by OneVike
I posted this a few weeks ago, but I decided to share it again because so many FReepers thought I was crazy 2 weeks ago. Well, now everyone is talking about a massive wave, where even Soccer Moms in suburbia are breaking heavy for Republicans. (an old saying, the most dangerous place to be is between a mother and her child) Well today I believe we will win even bigger than I did 2 weeks ago. Dare I claim we could actually win 100 House seats, and possibly win 10 Senate seats? Could happen if Chuck Schumer is really in trouble with Joe Pinion. If so, then with NY is in play we can see how some Democrats in flyover states could be knocked off. Even Newsome in California is now admitting a red wave is coming.
Well throughout American history there has been events in the country were things were so precarious that the voters decided en masse to change things. Below are a few graphs I created, to give you an idea how the American voters responded to these bellwether moments. These graphs offer a glimpse at how the political landscape can change, if we the voters truly want to stop the madness we see going on with our leaders.
To get a picture of what we are facing today, I chose to focus on the 1994 mid term election, the 2010 mid term election, and the 3 elections following the Stock Market Crash of 1929. These elections give us a glimpse of how the voters reacted to events effecting their lives, which they perceived are caused of the politicians running things. I am also including the shifts in governors races along with state legislatures of "1994" and "2010", and two maps to help you see how the states are looking in this election. All this to show how the voters turned their anger on politicians locally and nationally. Which we will see happening again this November.
I'll begin with the most recent election of 2010, when President Obama and the Democrats in Congress were destroying the economy while threatening to take over the healthcare industry. The result was the most devastating defeat for a political party in 78 years. It was in 1932 when Republicans lost 99 seats in the House and 11 seats in the Senate. Under Obama, the Democrats lost 64 seats in the house and 6 in the Senate. It must be stated that after the 2010 election, the Democrats defied the American voters demands, by passing Obamacare with a lame duck Congress. So after we defeat the Democrats in November, can we expect them to double down on stupid before their term is over?
Then we go back to the 1994 election which was 2 years after the Clintons won the Whitehouse, and the first time a big push was made by a political party to take control of American's health care system. This debate exacerbated the many problems voters had with the Clinton's and their allies in Congress. Which led the voters to show up in droves to make a change in 1994. In what was officially called the Ditto-Head caucus, the Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress. Other than 79th Congress of 1947-1949 and the 83rd Congress of 1953-1955, the Republicans were used to being in the minority for most of the second half of the 20th century. 
Now we come to a couple elections when Republicans found themselves on the wrong end of a historic defeat.
While doing my research for relevant election cycles I realized that the anger of the voters at Republicans over the financial woes of the country just kept gaining steam as the Depression set in. People began looking to the government for help, which led to many Socialists getting elected. A similar thing we see the Democrats hoping they can create again as they try their best to duplicate the misery of the Great Depression for their political gain. Sadly, it is at times when the government becomes the most intrusive upon our lives that our misery becomes more rampant. So the people do look to the very government that put them in misery to help solve their financial woes. OH what a vicious web of dependance our leaders weave for us to be trapped by, just to satisfy their lust for power.
Following the Stock Market crash of 1929, it took 3 consecutive elections from 1930 to 1934, for the Democrats to gain a super majority of the government. In 1929 the Republicans controlled 30 Governorships to 18 for the Democrats, 53 Senate seats to 39 by Democrats, and 270 House seats to 165 by the Democrats. When the dust had settled after the 1934 election, the political landscape had changed drastically with the Democrats controlling 38 Governorships, 69 US Senate seats, and 322 House seats.
Over a four year span, the voters held the Republican Party responsible for the policies which led to all the financial woes of America. We can debate who was responsible, but regardless of what the facts are, I offer a glimpse of the results of how the American people saw things and what they did to change course. One reason it took 4 years for things to settle is that news traveled slow and many citizens were not as in tune with the election process. However, as the depression lingered, the effects it had on the mindset of Americans was quite evident by the time 1934 election was complete.
Today we are 22 days out from another election that historians will be studying for years to come. When you look at the mood of the voters, it is evident that by the time the 118th Congress is sworn in Republicans will gain both chambers. It is no longer a question of "if", but rather how big the sweep will be. In the graphs I put together, you will see that I made my predictions, and highlighted them in yellow. I am convinced the Republicans will win much bigger than many believe. 
Here are just some of the ancillary evidence to take into consideration for what this election will most likely turn on.
As of today, the numbers of early voters are down historically, which means Democrats could care less. Republicans will not send in their vote by mail unless forced by law. We will crawl over broken glass to vote in person, as we did in 2022.
Independent voters are overwhelmingly telling liberal pollsters they will vote Republican.
Black men are angry at the Democrats, and even liberal polls are showing this.
Hispanic voters are the fastest growing conservative group in America. They are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Mostly because they are the biggest pro-life, pro-Christian, anti-gay, anti-Socialist demographic group in the country. They will be mostly voting Republican.
States where Democrats seldom see opposition are now confronted with many, many female voters who are telling pollsters,
"I am pro-choice, but I am voting Republican to protect my children."
Yes, those are quotes being heard time and time again across the country in strong Democrat areas.
I offer two maps to help you see how the states are looking in this election, and when you consider past elections you begin to understand the ramifications this election will have on the federal, state, and all the way down to school boards and even dog catcher if anyone is running for that job.
“As I stand here today, there are candidates running for every level of office in America — for governor, for Congress, for attorney general, for secretary of state — who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections they’re in,” he said.
I dont like the sounds of that. Sounds like Biden is preparing for the anger and backlash of fraud. Then he can say...”I told you so”.
“These graphs offer a glimpse at how the political landscape can change, if we the voters truly want to stop the madness we see going on with our leaders.”
*************
First off, this was an impressive analysis. Well done!
I am in agreement with your overall thesis.
I would, however, temper the R gains based on the fact that “the voters” as reflected in your tables are not the same voters that once were, shall we say, better informed with more skin in the game than perhaps many voters are now. You did address this to some extent, but the country’s demographics and culture have changed profoundly in recent years. Many groups vote on the basis of different biases and motivations, and they are subject to intense levels of propaganda.
So, there will be a red wave but the size of it is probably not going to be anything like a tsunami IMO.
“Insane wishcasting is as bad as the doomer threads.”
Precisely. And that’s pretty much all this is.
I’d be particularly interested in knowing exactly which 7 state legislatures (as if there’s only 1 legislative body per state) this analysis reveals are going to flip from R to D this year.
Not sure who this is, but looks similar to what I predicted back in the sprint. GOP pickup 80ish seats in house, and if the winds blow just right could flirt with triple digits.
Lot of time has passed since then, and I still feel comfortable with that.
Should see a solid Senate shift, it’s not going to be just a couple of seats in the GOP favor. I don’t recall exact numbers I put down back then, but I believe it was 53-55 GOP range, possibly more.
Don’t really play around with state houses and governorships.
Sadly the most important Governorship to me, is PA and thats likely a lost cause, even with the wave building, its hard to see a path for Mastriano to win. Establish GOP of PA wants nothing to do with him and only given him token support at best, and he’s run a rather poor campaign to boot. Could there be some under the surface hidden thing going on that could surprise everyone and catch them all flat footed??
It’s always possible, but not very likely I see nothing on the ground in PA to remotely suggest there is some hidden groundswell brewing on the ground that the polls and pundits aren’t seeing.
Anyway, just a few more days.. I know the “safe” wisdom is 40ish seat swing in the house because of the divided nature of the electorate these days, but I firmly believe those numbers will be blown out of the water... places no one is even talking about, that everyone is just considered Safe D’s are going to surprise I suspect. No, not everywhere, but much like NJ and VA surprised, I expect a lot of those types of things Tuesday night.
It absolutely looks like this is going to be a full on repudiation of democrats up and down the ballot election... only the bluest of the blue districts should be considered safe... Candidate quality is out the window... there is always an exception to any trend where a race here and there bucks the trend, but this is lining up to be just a shellacking up and down the ballot.
Said it long ago say it now, if PA Senate race goes GOP (this was even before nominee was selected) that’s my bellweather, if PA Senate goes red, then the election is just full on repudiation of the democrats... Fetterman’s stroke certainly lowered the bar for PA to flip as his campaign hasn’t remotely been able to campaign like it would have otherwise, but it’s still in my mind a solid bellweather. Lousy GOP candidate, in a State with a huge D (over 600k registration advantage)...
PA goes red, I expect not just a solid win for GOP, but a crushing night, up and down the ballot.
Love that.
You’re right. Expect many delayed results.
You have a date of Nov 8 but the dems have already said it will take a few days to count manufacture ballots
Even we won’t be prepared for how stunning the shellacking will be.
When the Republicans take the Senate (please God) Biden will not be able to appoint any more Supreme Court justices. He will have to have the better quality candidates for other judgeships as well.
When the Republicans take the House the J6 insanity will stop and we will start investigating Hunter Biden and political prisoners.
If the Rats are allowed to steal this election then I predict Putin will absolutely drop nukes on Ukraine, and dare Puppet Biden to do something about it. It will be WW3 and the world as we know it will come to an end. How many US soldiers will want to die for the Joe Biden homosexual agenda?
A landslide defeat of the Rat Party will allow Putin to pause the operation in Ukraine. We will see a negotiated peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, whereby Lord Voldemort Zelenskyy will be sacrificed to Satan. WW3 will be prevented but it will be the beginning of the end of the Uni-Party in DC.
Either way the election goes, it is going to be the death of the evil Biden regime. The question is how many Rats want to blow up the planet for the Biden regime.
What’s different?
The election integrity program
True the vote.
Judicial watch.
Several favorable court rulings that should assist
General public awareness.
And the fact that five states can’t collude to steal an election; the most corrupt state can only be corrupt by itself.
I don’t think they are going to get away with truckloads of ballots being unloaded like last time.
I anticipate long waits before the final results come in which inevitably will favor the Democrats. Any prominent person who challenges the results will be visited by the FBI. The IRS is also gearing up to audit those who support conservatives.
I expect huge Red Wave next Tuesday..even with the cheat. The fainting goat Reddit trolls here feigning concern give themselves away “Yes but with the cheat...blah, blah”. Yes next Tuesday your pain trolls will be acute. I am sorry a Conservative real man banged your GF years ago, get over it simp.
I think you are spot on, except I think we will pick up 2-3 more governors.
🙏
The senate I can see 54. Or maybe 56. The house? Now way that much of a majority.
I hope I am wrong and your prediction is correct.
I’ll buy you a beer if your prediction comes true.
I honestly wish that I could share in your optimism.
The House goes 285 - 149 Republican?
No way. Not going to happen.
Well, maybe if Dems vote on November 9.
I will go with Republicans +30 in the House and +2 in the Senate.
Not at all
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