Posted on 10/12/2022 8:40:29 AM PDT by Kazan
Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.
Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers: (video at link)
Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.
At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .
However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.
The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/
Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.
Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.
What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:
The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .
But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.
https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/
Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.
I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.
Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.
When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.
“and they won”
Sure, after 6 years or so. Russia doesn’t appear to have the luxury of keeping this going for 6 years though.
And why is launching cruise or especially hypersonic missiles and admission one's fighters/bombers can't operate? I recall the USA launching hundreds of tomahawks in Iraq War I and II, to hit the exact same kinds of targets.
Only the fact their aircraft are unwilling to venture far into Ukrainian airspace, and then only a very low altitudes (subjecting them to MANPADS).
Second, that numerous of their advanced aircraft have been shot down by Ukrainian air defenses, which explains the above reluctance to operate in Ukrainian air space.
The US fired lots of Tomahawks, and HARM missiles in the early war in Iraq. One of the prime early targets were Iraqi air defenses, which were taken out, giving Allied forces air dominance.
I do not see evidence of that in Ukraine.
Exactly. Although I do believe that some of these yapping jackals who claim to be Americans are really eastern Europeans, or possibly Germans. Their syntax is just one of many clues.
The morning of 10 October - 6 closes air support, and 4 SEAD sorties. Slow day.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1579441907670822912/photo/1
—> but going to stop by store and pick up a pair of Ghost of Kyiv socks. *thumbsup*
A true hero for the cause comrade
” I would fight and resist just the same as the Ukrainians are doing.”
Absolutely. So why are WE involved? This is not our fight. You mean sending BILLIONS to Ukraine is more important than our borders and Fl, which was hit by a hurricane?
The basic questions for this war is how will Germany and Europe deal with General Winter without enough energy? What we will see is plant closures, business closures, massive poverty, and frozen dead people.
lulz.
I have to say, that makes no sense.
Who supplied the North Vietnamese and VietCong? Did they have their own factories to make their AKs, RPGs, and ammo?
Who is keeping the Urkainians in the fight with billions in weapons and ammo and everything else? Outside of the US and NATO, Ukraine has no friends. The rest of the world, rightly, does not care as they have no dog in the fight.
Sanction Russia. OK. Russia sells its oil to China, India and a whole bunch of other countries.
The Ukrainians can have all the will to fight, they want, if they don’t have any guns or ammo to shoot back, they ain’t winning.
Exactly, been saying this since Day 3.
And we have spent more in/on Ukraine than the entire Russian Military budget for 2021 and 2022.
And you can take this to the bank:
It’s about to get ‘full game on’ soon enough.
The Chess pieces are just being moved into place.
I have been reading the same refrain for seven months.
It is starting to resemble the "Q" idiocy about the election of Donald Trump in 2020.
It makes no sense for Russia to expend massive amounts of treasure, equipment, and manpower to "put chess pieces into place" if they could crush the Ukrainian military any time they wanted to.
Pretty soon, Ukraine and Zelensky will be on their own.
You mean like where Russia is right now? Other than Death to America Iran and the Norks, of course. A Big Three if there ever was one.
That's the only reason I root for the Ukes. There is NO good guy in this fight.
The U.S.A. is run by one of the most corrupt administrations in its history, yet I would not welcome an invasion and attack by a neighboring country. I would fight and resist just the same as the Ukrainians are doing.
But a majority of Democrats would flee to Canada before they'd fight an invader, and some would assist the enemy.
And China...quietly sitting there. No one paying attention. Can crank out AKs and ammo faster than you can bake a sheet of cookies. Drones, whatever the Russians need. For they fire the same weapon systems. The Russians need 107 or 240 rockets. Jinping...”here you go, I’ll take a whole bunch of oil”. You got it.
All in return for some of the Russian oil that is still being pumped out of the ground.
When your rapist offers you a marriage proposal or else, do you accept?
That is the issue.
Here is my fear. This will lead to guerilla attacks for decades to come.
“ and demilitarizing and de-Nazify Ukraine was the objective and it has been accomplished.”
Ukraine operates more tanks now than when the war started. Over 400 of them were captured or surrendered from Russian forces, making Russia the single biggest foreign source of tanks for the Ukraine.
Denial is strong in you as well, even when Ukrainian officials are indicating to you the numbers they are losing.
Russian to Ukrainian kill ratios are 5:1 up to 20:1.
And asserting “Q” is nothing more than BidenIdiot, Pentagon, DoD, CIA, MI6 BS code language for ‘conspiracy theory/theories’ etc. In other words, if you don’t take what we are telling you or asserting to you, then what you say is “Q” BS or conspiracy theories.
Spare me.
I advise you to read more history. WWI was a prime example of wasting time money and resources over nothing much worth while.
There are numerous examples.
Almost every participant in WWI was poorer after the war. The United States may be a major exception.
The reason for this, is while participants may be attempting to be rational actors, they often are acting on false premises about reality or false information which they believe to be true.
Exactly. Although I do believe that some of these yapping jackals who claim to be Americans are really eastern Europeans, or possibly Germans. Their syntax is just one of many clues.
LOL. Nothing says Red Blooded American like cheering on the Kremlin and it’s KGB filth dictator. Historically such has been the province of the Chomskyite nutball left of the American political spectrum. But whatever floats your boat, comrade.
” So why are WE involved?”
WHERE did I say we should be?
I said the exact opposite.
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