THERE IS NO SINGLE WAR IN UKRAINE AND NATO IS IN TROUBLE

Sonar 21 ^ | 11 October 2022 | Larry Johnson

[Kazan]

Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.

Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers: (video at link)

Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.

At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .

However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.

The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/

Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.

Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.

What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:

The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .

But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.

https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/

Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.

I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.

Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.

When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.

[qaz123]

Kind of what Zelenskyyidiot doing right?

Incessantly begging, groveling, pleading for more tanks, planes, military hardware, munitions, money, and pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Russia.......

Winner!!!!

If your suckboy Zelensky was doing as good as you fantasize about, he wouldn’t be begging NATO to go full retard and start dropping bombs on Moscow. That’s not the talk of a winner.

And you obviously have ZERO problem with the $60,000,000,000, or more, we’ve already given a foreign, corrupt country while the US is circling the drain and being overrun with illegal aliens from all over the world. Who cares about those bills when they come due.....Putin BAD, Zelensky GOOD.

Gas prices in the US are going up, the clown in the White House is begging the Saudis for oil, Russia is selling oil to anyone they want, Europeans are going to start freezing to death, France has more or less run out of gas......BUUUUTTTTTTT Putin BAD, Zelensky GOOD.

[cranked]

AKA, no they don’t.
Source?
Sources?

Yeah, I’ll wait.......

[Magnum44]

The Russians have had the ability to turn the portion of Ukraine they have no desire to rule over into parking lot via a US-style shock and awe campaign at any time.

And by doing so they only harden the resolve of the Ukrainians to push out the 'invaders'.

You kind of prove my point. No strategic thought. You think like Putin, which is not really thinking through the consequences of his actions. Now he has 'control' of two regions of a neighboring country with an army that is poorly fed, poorly equipped, tired from lack of rotation, and slowly getting cut off, ground down, and pushed back.

You think 'annexing' by proxy means anything on a battlefield? If its 'mission accomplished', when do the troops get to go home?

BTW, as has been pointed out by others, you can not begin to compare this to the US/Allied force 'shock and awe' campaign of OIF. Even in Gulf War 91' the first night we put over 1000 sorties over Baghdad. You hail Putin for less than a tenth of that and call it a fair comparison?

[qaz123]

will cripple the best of armies

Not only the armies. The populace as well. When Ukrainians have no power, they have no heat, can’t cook, can’t do anything. Eventually their military, having been propped up by the US and NATO, since Day 1, will soon feel those effects.

And then, as winter sets in across Europe, what will NATO do then? Look at France. No gas. Cops pushing their cop cars down the road, folks fighting over gas at gas stations.

Pretty soon, Ukraine and Zelensky will be on their own.

[Boogieman]

“the share of Americans who are extremely or very concerned about a Ukrainian defeat fell from 55 percent in May to 38 percent in September”

Yes, because it’s become apparent to everyone (except you and your small clique of dead enders) that Russia simply can’t manage to defeat little old pathetic Ukraine.

[cranked]

LMAO.

Okie dokie.

[qaz123]

Years ago, the German army was training with broomsticks because they had no training ammo.

[cranked]

They could not beat themselves out a wet paper bag today if push came to shove reality.

‘German army has ammo for only two days of war – media’
https://archive.ph/mov4y#selection-903.10-903.63

“The German Army (Bundeswehr) has enough ammunition for only one or two days of warfare, the German edition of news website Business Insider (BI) reported on Saturday, citing defense industry and parliamentary sources.”

[Boogieman]

“If it weren’t for the billions in weapons, supplies, and I’m betting some CIA Predator/Raptor drones, this crap would have been over a long time ago.”

Sure, and if it weren’t for those darned meddling kids, every Scooby Doo villain would have succeeded with their master plan.

Russia has to deal with reality as it exists, not as it wishes it would be.

[qaz123]

OMG...they already their grid up and running.

Until the next rocket or missile takes it out again. And maybe the next time, they drop 2, 3, 4 on it and completely level it.

OMG...what will they do then?

The US has its own problems. Are you ok with US taxpayer money, YOUR money, being sent over there, no accountability, to prop up the Ukrainian government and pay their salaries?

Are you ok with US military stockpiles becoming critically so it can all be sent to Ukraine? Making a Javelin isn’t done overnight. It’ll take years before the US can rebuild these stockpiles.

[Travis McGee]

[Alter Kaker]

And you definitely on your knees when you have called for pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Russia multiple times......

I did? LOL. Nope - must have me mixed with someone else.

[qaz123]

Are you saying that the US and NATO could step back today and Ukraine would still be in it? ha ha ha ha ha.

Talk about a reality one wishes for.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

—> I remember, when the alleged Ghost of Kyiv was proven to be utter rubbish.

“But the spirit of The Ghost of Kiev is real!!!!”

- Zeeperman

[Boogieman]

“What I don’t get is why so many people still believe the Western-supported Ukraine is on the verge of a victory rout.”

Who believes that? Nobody that I know.

The point is that the Ukrainians do not need to achieve a “rout”. They are not the ones trying to conquer Russia. Ukraine continues to thwart Russia’s objectives simply by continuing to fight, and they have even gone beyond that and put Russia on the backfoot recently.

That’s not a trend that will result in a Russian victory anytime in the near future, and Russia has not shown any capacity to reverse the trend yet.

[cranked]

‘You’ is a metaphor for ZelesnkyyIdiot.
My apologizes if you thought I was referring to you.

[WMarshal]

The Allies, America, Great Britain, and Russia destroyed the manufacturing and energy sectors of Germany in World War II and they won.

[Boogieman]

“Are you saying that the US and NATO could step back today and Ukraine would still be in it?”

No, if I was saying that I would have said it.

What I am saying is that the US and NATO are supplying Ukraine. That’s reality. That’s the reality that Russia must accept and face.

Stomping their feet and saying “Russia would win if it weren’t for NATO!” will never result in a Russian victory.

[qaz123]

Sadly, does it matter? They’ve been reliant on the US bases in their country, filled with US Infantry, Armor and Air Force, for decades. They don’t have to worry about anything as long as Uncle Sam is still there.

I’m betting that’s why they hated Pres Trump so much. He was forcing them to stand up and take responsibility for themselves.

[cranked]

Getting ready to head out and runs some banking investment errands before wife gets home and kicks my arse, but going to stop by store and pick up a pair of Ghost of Kyiv socks. *thumbsup*