Posted on 10/12/2022 8:40:29 AM PDT by Kazan
Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.
Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers: (video at link)
Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.
At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .
However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.
The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/
Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.
Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.
What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:
The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .
But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.
https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/
Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.
I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.
Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.
When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.
Zelensky is begging for more weapons.
Putin is begging for someone to negotiate a peace deal.
A pretty clear indication of who still wants to be in this fight.
I had in my “Today’s News” (www.uncoverdc.com) yesterday that Germany just gave the Ukes “200 tanks” (then you read: “Soviet era tanks”). Wait, that’s 30 years ago. So the generous Germans are giving the Ukes 200 coffins.
“Sorry, but you don’t win a war by blowing up power plants. You have to defeat the enemy army in order to claim victory.”
That’s not correct. It is exactly how you win a war. The destruction of enemy power plants, fuel storage, refineries, communications centers, and infrastructure (bridges & railroad depots) will cripple the best of armies.
“Sure, if they want to get shot down by Ukrainian air defenses :)”
There are always ways to get something done. Russia has already started using missiles to attack major cities which is the last of the actions they wished to take because destroying the resources and killing the people that make them operate makes the land worthless. All they have to do is shift the targets to Ukrainian troop formations and problem solved. If they are going to give up worth, then make it manpower and not productive cities. Problem solved.
“Ukrainian air defenses were able to shoot down some of the incoming missiles, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council said, but noted that “there is no one silver bullet weapon system” to counter the threat.”
The missiles in question were fired from Russian airspace. There are a range of priority capabilities that this and the next phase of the war would suggest putting a premium on, and certain more advanced air defenses would be among them,” the RAND Corporation’s Barry Pavel said. Following its successful counteroffensives in the east and south, Kyiv has reshuffled its wish list for weapons as it prepared for Russia to strike civilian targets, POLITICO reported last week, with air defenses shooting to the top of the list. But the question is what the different countries will be willing to give up from their own supply. They’re in range also. And the current system doesn’t get all of them, actually very few. The US voted down star wars years ago because it didn’t work. Same same.
wy69
I finally figured out why the Democrats are promoting Ukraine so much (beyond just the money laundering).
They are engaged in a PsyOps program to cover for the complete failure of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, where we left so much equipment behind.
Basically, they are trying to fool the American people into saying, “Our military may be weak and totally botched in Afghanistan, but at least we aren’t the Russians!”.
“True, you can degrade the enemy’s will to fight,”
It’s a lesson we have learned to our cost in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. If you are invading someone else’s home the level of casualties they are willing to accept in exchange for victory is essentially infinite.
Putin is not begging for peace.
He has openly stated and continues to state, he is open to NEGOTIATIONS or NEGOTIATING a settlement, which any sane and rational leader would do unlike neo-Nazi influenced ZelenskyyIdiot who has said he will not negotiate till regime change in Russia.
Put the crackpipe down, kthx.
Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States)
And they called "steppes" in that part of Eurasia, not "plains", you condescending clown.
But second, and more importantly, the entire article is based on the assumption that Russia still has masses of uncommitted, operational tanks with which to swarm those steppes, and an Air Force capable of blasting out of existence any defenders trying to resist that massed armor. The author's source for claiming that over ten thousand of these uncommitted, operational tanks actually exist is a pre-war estimate by a civilian think tank.
Reality says otherwise. There have been ancient T-62's photographed on the battlefield that would have no business entering modern war if Russia had anything better than them remaining. If Russia actually had those massive reserves of operational tanks, they would have used them to counter-attack and annihilate the Ukrainian armored brigades that have operated with impunity in the Northeast for the last month.
But they didn't, because they don't exist.
“I remember, when the alleged Ghost of Kyiv was proven to be utter rubbish.”
Yes, that was when the Ukes had held off the Soviets for about a week, as opposed to now, where they’ve held off the Soviets for seven and a half months. Seems like a long time ago, don’t it?
“That’s not correct. It is exactly how you win a war. The destruction of enemy power plants, fuel storage, refineries, communications centers, and infrastructure”
Have you paid attention to any of the wars we have fought for the last 40 years? We believed doing all of the above would get us victory in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.
A motivated army is willing to fight in the dark and on foot.
“Russia’s desperation terror offensive that they fell back on after it became clear they could not beat the Ukrainian army in the field.”
Until two days ago, Ukrainian citizens had no worries about charging up your phone, using appliances and having a warm home. The NATO can pour in weapons and cash, but they can’t keep the power on for the people.
At this point, there’s no chance for a cease-fire and no push for talks. It will not get better.
“The destruction of enemy power plants, fuel storage, refineries, communications centers, and infrastructure (bridges & railroad depots) will cripple the best of armies.”
Not really. We blew those things up basically weekly in WW2 and the Germans just rebuilt them every time. As long as the resources are there to rebuild (and Ukraine will get whatever resources they need as long as Russia continues to be foolish enough to threaten the West), you aren’t winning the war by doing that.
It’s obvious “Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine”.....
Apparently, you fail at either reading or comprehending what you read, yes?
‘Ukraine’s Allies Can’t Get Arms Fast Enough as Stockpiles Shrink’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/ukraine-s-allies-can-t-get-arms-fast-enough-as-stockpiles-shrink#xj4y7vzkg
“The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html
“The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it’s looking for US companies to build more of them.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wants-to-build-artillery-shells-as-it-supplies-ukraine-2022-9
“The US military needs a lot more artillery shells, rockets, and missiles for the next war”
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-artillery-shells-rockets-missiles-war-russia-china/
‘US Ammunition Running Low for Ukraine, No Quick Fix for Shortage’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3Vt7fmaGns
‘Ukraine could be put on ‘ammo diet’ – US military expert’
https://www.rt.com/news/561032-europe-to-put-ukraine-ammo-diet/
‘We Are Out of Ammo’: Ukraine Awaits Aid as Russian Artillery Bears Down’
https://www.newsweek.com/we-are-out-ammo-ukraine-awaits-aid-russian-artillery-bears-down-1715060
‘Ukraine hunts for British factories to deliver artillery shells as counter-attack burns through supply’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/02/ukraine-hunts-british-factories-deliver-artillery-shells-counter/
‘The Return of Industrial Warfare’
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
‘Why Russia Is Not Running Out Of Ammo’
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/why-russia-is-not-running-out-of-ammo.html
‘US ammunition supplies dwindle as Ukraine war drains stockpiles’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-08/us-running-out-of-ammunitions-to-send-to-ukraine-war/101515370
‘We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine#:~:text=Ukraine%20is%20using%205%2C000%20to,is%20fired%20from%20artillery%20pieces
‘German army has ammo for only two days of war – media’
https://archive.ph/mov4y#selection-903.10-903.63
...
You know what Zelenskyyidiot is getting or in your words, ‘winning’ as a beggar?
Scraps.
Like a dog sitting at a table, looking up, waiting for any bit of scraps that may be thrown or handed its way. And those scraps are getting less and less and less......
There is talk of Zelensky spending most of his time in front of a green screen in Poland, excepting a quick trip to Kharkiv for a troop photo-OP. Nothing wrong with this.
Until power is shut off in Kiev. At that point he’s not sharing the burden.
If Putin wants out, he knows where the door is.
Issues -
Russia seems to have a very limited capacity to recondition tanks its got in storage. The bulk of them have been stored outdoors for decades, based on satellite images. These seem to be requiring a very extensive overhaul, and most seem to be older models, T72A/B, based on those seen on the railroad videos Moscow has been releasing.
This is illustrated by the fact that Russia has asked for Belorussian reserve stocks. The Belorussians obligingly have begun delivering their reserve of unupgraded T72A’s, which is a 1979 model. This should not have necessary had Russia the number of functional tanks you assume.
These are almost all very old tanks, vulnerable to older Euro/American missiles, such as Milan or Tow. Indeed we are seeing a lot of Tow systems showing up in videos. The US has lots of Tows. And the Javelins were made precisely for this target, massed Russian armor. Theres really no point in holding on to US stocks if their moment of destiny has come. It does not matter if its Ukrainians and not Americans shooting them off, if they are hitting their intended targets.
The limiting factor for Russia though is not really the number of tanks, but tank crews. Given the extent of tanks its lost, @1500 is a good figure, at least 1/2 of “active” tanks, crew casualties among “active” units must be severe. These are to be replaced by reservists apparently, who have only basic training, and have had no refresher training at all, as it was not Russian practice to regularly call up reservists. So thats a lot of very green tankers.
As for artillery, you may have noted that Belorussia is also sending Russia its reserve ammo. Which it goes without saying should not be necessary if Russia still had its fabled ammo reserves. So where is the Russian ammo?
As for the winter, this is not a good time for offensives. Main roads are going to be the only way to supply this hypothetical armored fist. Which is going to be roadbound, like it or not. Which gets around to that last 100km beyond the railhead problem the Russians have had since Kiev. Its not like Russian logistics capacity has gotten better.
As for the RuAF, they still have that complete incapacity to do SEAD, which has kept them from using their tac air except on the margins, and unable to do strategic bombing or interdiction at all. Nothing has changed on that front.
“It’s obvious “Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine”.....”
And yet is seems that making a crater in a park in the center of Kiev had little effect on the Ukrainian war effort.
Today, like every day of the last month, the Ukrainians continue to advance and the Russians to retreat.
“All they have to do is shift the targets to Ukrainian troop formations and problem solved.”
If it were that simple or Russia would have done that first. They’re attacking civilian targets because they can’t attack the military targets successfully.
“The missiles in question were fired from Russian airspace.”
Which is why Russia shouldn’t be surprised when Ukraine soon receives missiles from the West with enough range to hit targets deep within Russia.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.