Issues -
Russia seems to have a very limited capacity to recondition tanks its got in storage. The bulk of them have been stored outdoors for decades, based on satellite images. These seem to be requiring a very extensive overhaul, and most seem to be older models, T72A/B, based on those seen on the railroad videos Moscow has been releasing.
This is illustrated by the fact that Russia has asked for Belorussian reserve stocks. The Belorussians obligingly have begun delivering their reserve of unupgraded T72A’s, which is a 1979 model. This should not have necessary had Russia the number of functional tanks you assume.
These are almost all very old tanks, vulnerable to older Euro/American missiles, such as Milan or Tow. Indeed we are seeing a lot of Tow systems showing up in videos. The US has lots of Tows. And the Javelins were made precisely for this target, massed Russian armor. Theres really no point in holding on to US stocks if their moment of destiny has come. It does not matter if its Ukrainians and not Americans shooting them off, if they are hitting their intended targets.
The limiting factor for Russia though is not really the number of tanks, but tank crews. Given the extent of tanks its lost, @1500 is a good figure, at least 1/2 of “active” tanks, crew casualties among “active” units must be severe. These are to be replaced by reservists apparently, who have only basic training, and have had no refresher training at all, as it was not Russian practice to regularly call up reservists. So thats a lot of very green tankers.
As for artillery, you may have noted that Belorussia is also sending Russia its reserve ammo. Which it goes without saying should not be necessary if Russia still had its fabled ammo reserves. So where is the Russian ammo?
As for the winter, this is not a good time for offensives. Main roads are going to be the only way to supply this hypothetical armored fist. Which is going to be roadbound, like it or not. Which gets around to that last 100km beyond the railhead problem the Russians have had since Kiev. Its not like Russian logistics capacity has gotten better.
As for the RuAF, they still have that complete incapacity to do SEAD, which has kept them from using their tac air except on the margins, and unable to do strategic bombing or interdiction at all. Nothing has changed on that front.
“As for artillery, you may have noted that Belorussia is also sending Russia its reserve ammo. Which it goes without saying should not be necessary if Russia still had its fabled ammo reserves. “
The Soviet’s vastly overproduced almost all types of Russian hardware. In our 20 years in Afghanistan we were giving our allies millions of rounds a year of AK-47 ammo. Not one of those rounds was manufactured after 1989.
The reserves of artillery shells will still run out at some point, and that has to be a ticking clock that Putin & co are very worried about.