Posted on 10/12/2022 8:40:29 AM PDT by Kazan
Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.
Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers: (video at link)
Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.
At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .
However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.
The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/
Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.
Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.
What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:
The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .
But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.
https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/
Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.
I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.
Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.
When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.
What load of crap. Read the damn column. Russia just crippled Ukraine's electric grid and took out several command centers, including the SBU headquarters and other command centers, WITH NO RESISTANCE WHATSOEVER.
That might be why Zelensky is begging us for air defense systems.
Just like with Russian collusion and Trump and leftists, you living an alternate universe.
“But no, they are fighting for their freedom.. (cough)”
I would think they are.
I would think the average Ukrainian citizen does not appreciate having their country invaded and their homes and friends and relatives bombed into dust by an invading force.
The U.S.A. is run by one of the most corrupt administrations in its history, yet I would not welcome an invasion and attack by a neighboring country. I would fight and resist just the same as the Ukrainians are doing.
China is going to pay less for Russian energy than Europe did.
China is no slouch on these kinds of negotiations and they are going to be the biggest winner (as usual) from this mess.
The Euroweenies and their foggy bottom counterparts in the US have never been able to leave the former Warsaw Pact nations alone. Those who warned us about NATO encroachment up to the border of Russia appear very wise today, but that ship has sailed and here we are.
We pay, they die, threats of nuclear war, and China obtains cheap and reliable energy.
“You’re forgetting one small detail — who’s winning a war is determined by territory gained...”
No, it isn’t. War is not a football game (and even football games are determined by goals, not yardage). Who is winning a war is determined by which side is able to achieve its objectives on the battlefield.
Ukraine’s objective is to survive, independent of Russian domination. They have continued to achieve that.
Russia’s goal is to seize more territory from Ukraine, and while they can pretend that they have “annexed” that territory, since the conflict is still ongoing, and to hold this territory requires Russia to occupy it with a wartime army that will continue to suffer constant losses, then this objective still has not been achieved.
Well what else can Ukraine do? .....Zelensky got them fighting for their country now he has to keep them fighting. Do you just expect he’ll roll over?
The west could dedicate 1% of its industrial output to the war and match everything that Russia could build.
Seems some folks don’t realize a “de-industrialized” west is still more industrialized than Putin’s Russia. When traveling through Russia the most noticeable thing is how empty the place is. There just isn’t a lot of activity. Economic or otherwise.
Ukrainian air defences....ha ha ha ha
If it weren’t for the billions in weapons, supplies, and I’m betting some CIA Predator/Raptor drones, this crap would have been over a long time ago.
“10,000 Ukrainian servicemen of the second wave from training in Great Britain are returning back to Ukraine”
As proven by the fact it has LOST 40,000 square miles in this war despite, up to now, having an advantage in troops on the ground.
The annexed areas now part of Russia will never, ever be part of Ukraine again.
Russia has only used about 10% of its military on the ground in the war, relying on the militias of the LPR, DPR, Chechnya and the Wagner. That is soon change, though.
Can you be more delusional? Like with the left on Russian collusion and Trump, you're spewing and believe ridiculous bullshit. You're to be pitied if you don't know that.
“Ukraine continues to hemorrhage massive amounts of manpower and military equipment.”
Not as much as Russia has hemorrhaged. And Ukraine has the advantage that they can rely on the West to resupply them. Nobody is going to resupply Russia.
yes...how long does it take to build a helicopter or jet, nnd how long does it take to build a portable SAM. What’s the price differential?
“As proven by the fact it has LOST 40,000 square miles in this war...”
Except everyone knows, despite your protestations, that Russia hasn’t even been able to hold on to that “40,000 square miles”, and a good portion of it is now back under Ukrainian control.
But you going on counting your chickens before they have hatched.
Not sure what drugs you on, but dude....denial is strong in you.
“Ukraine war veterans on how Kiev plundered US aid, wasted soldiers, endangered civilians, and lost the war”
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/08/18/ukraine-veterans-us-aid-soldiers-war/
“A Ukrainian’s Letter from the Front
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94RYVNg9bfA
‘Ukrainian General estimates Kiev’s losses at hundreds of thousands since Feb’
https://tass.com/politics/1501881
‘Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
‘In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs’
https://archive.ph/MtHyd#selection-383.0-383.52
“Kharkov Offensive: “You Can Always Regain Territory—You Cannot Regain Human Lives.” - Jacques Baud”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6GFaOQOpEs
“The Limits of Ukraine’s Offensive and the High Price to Pay When it Ends”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pONjlORXdFQ
...
‘Russians use 40-60,000 artillery shells every day — Commander in Chief’
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/16/russians-use-40-60000-artillery-shells-every-day-commander-in-chief/#:~:text=Russians%20fire%2040%2D60%2C000%20artillery,Canadian%20counterpart%20General%20Wayne%20Eyre.
‘Russia is hammering Ukraine with up to 60,000 artillery shells and rockets every day’
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-artillery-rocket-strikes-east-ukraine/
‘Zaluzhny: The occupiers release up to 60,000 munitions on Ukrainian positions every day’
https://babel.ua/en/news/83037-zaluzhny-the-occupiers-release-up-to-60-000-munitions-on-ukrainian-positions-every-day
“The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html
“The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it’s looking for US companies to build more of them.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wants-to-build-artillery-shells-as-it-supplies-ukraine-2022-9
“The US military needs a lot more artillery shells, rockets, and missiles for the next war”
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-artillery-shells-rockets-missiles-war-russia-china/
‘US Ammunition Running Low for Ukraine, No Quick Fix for Shortage’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3Vt7fmaGns
‘Ukraine could be put on ‘ammo diet’ – US military expert’
https://www.rt.com/news/561032-europe-to-put-ukraine-ammo-diet/
‘We Are Out of Ammo’: Ukraine Awaits Aid as Russian Artillery Bears Down’
https://www.newsweek.com/we-are-out-ammo-ukraine-awaits-aid-russian-artillery-bears-down-1715060
‘Ukraine hunts for British factories to deliver artillery shells as counter-attack burns through supply’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/02/ukraine-hunts-british-factories-deliver-artillery-shells-counter/
‘The Return of Industrial Warfare’
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
‘Why Russia Is Not Running Out Of Ammo’
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/why-russia-is-not-running-out-of-ammo.html
‘US ammunition supplies dwindle as Ukraine war drains stockpiles’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-08/us-running-out-of-ammunitions-to-send-to-ukraine-war/101515370
‘We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine#:~:text=Ukraine%20is%20using%205%2C000%20to,is%20fired%20from%20artillery%20pieces
‘German army has ammo for only two days of war – media’
https://archive.ph/mov4y#selection-903.10-903.63
‘Ukraine’s Allies Can’t Get Arms Fast Enough as Stockpiles Shrink’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/ukraine-s-allies-can-t-get-arms-fast-enough-as-stockpiles-shrink#xj4y7vzkg
Yes, post more linkspam, I take that as a sign that you’ve run out of arguments.
Learn to read and comprehend link spam instead of spouting more BS nonsense, you think?!
That’s fine for hitting a power plant, but almost no impact on the battlefield.
So, as winter sets in and there’s no power, what are the Ukrainians going to do? Or is the US taxpayer going to pay for multi-million dollar generators and all the associated equipment and diesel to keep them running, so the Ukrainians can have power?
What in hell are you babbling about?
The Russian objective was to help liberate Donbass. It just annex 40,000 square miles there. That and demilitarizing and de-Nazify Ukraine was the objective and it has been accomplished.
And, the Russians have been extremely restrained. The Russian just showed a couple of days ago that they can bomb any target they want at any time with no resistance whatsoever as Larry Johnson points out in the article. READ IT. The Russians have had the ability to turn the portion of Ukraine they have no desire to rule over into parking lot via a US-style shock and awe campaign at any time.
Well, the real problem for Russia in that department is even if they had an endless supply of planes, they can’t build new pilots. They are running out of those, and the ones they have left that are really combat capable are mostly old, retired guys. The younger generations of Russian pilots have not had sufficient flight time or training and have not likely seen much combat, unless you count bombing Syrian terrorists with no air force or air defenses as “combat”.
You, as with others, continually spouting BS off the top your heads and not backing it up with any type sourcing, etc. other than your own flatulence.
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