THERE IS NO SINGLE WAR IN UKRAINE AND NATO IS IN TROUBLE

Sonar 21 ^ | 11 October 2022 | Larry Johnson

[Kazan]

Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.

Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers: (video at link)

Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.

At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .

However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.

The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/

Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.

Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.

What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:

The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .

But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.

https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/

Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.

I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.

Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.

When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.

[cranked]

‘Ukraine’s Allies Can’t Get Arms Fast Enough as Stockpiles Shrink’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/ukraine-s-allies-can-t-get-arms-fast-enough-as-stockpiles-shrink#xj4y7vzkg

“Don’t Buy the Narrative on Ukraine”
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dont-buy-the-narrative-on-ukraine/

[Boogieman]

“Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units.”

Sure, if they want to get shot down by Ukrainian air defenses :)

[Boogieman]

“...the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine”

Right, the “real peril” is Russia’s desperation terror offensive that they fell back on after it became clear they could not beat the Ukrainian army in the field. Sorry, but you don’t win a war by blowing up power plants. You have to defeat the enemy army in order to claim victory. But Russia can’t accomplish that, so they’ll shoot missiles at static targets and hope their propaganda offensive can dazzle the rubes.

[cranked]

You mean like virtually all of Ukraine’s air force has?

When the last time you read or seen a video of Ukrainian aircraft attacking a position, cover for operations, etc.?

I remember, when the alleged Ghost of Kyiv was proven to be utter rubbish.

[Bishop_Malachi]

You have to defeat the enemy army in order to claim victory.

________________________________________________________

Lots have nations have managed to still field armies in the past, and yet have lost. In fact I can think of two cases where a superior army still remained and yet that side LOST. In both cases they were US forces: Vietnam and Afghanistan. In a democracy the army is an extension of the political will of the people. Even Sun Tzu knew (millennia ago) that defeating the enemy army was THE WORST way to win a war.

[Nik Naym]

If Ukraine wasn’t the Biden Crime Family’s money laundry and piggy bank, we wouldn’t be involved in this in the first place.

Nor should we be.

I would love to see Putin get his (and Russia’s ) ass handed to him. But this isn’t our fight.

[max americana]

“If Ukraine wasn’t the Biden Crime Family’s money laundry and piggy bank, we wouldn’t be involved in this in the first place.”

Huh? some Freepers keep harping that it’s about “freedom” and Putin. It’s just a small country fighting for it’s freedom.

The same small pure country which had Hunter Biden and a CIA official sit on the national gas company. But no, they are fighting for their freedom.. (cough)

[Alter Kaker]

Russia still has an Air Force, but it has virtually no precision munitions and hasn’t been able to be used effectively in Ukraine due to MANPADS and other air defenses. The Russians can use planes to lob unguided rockets as a standoff weapon - not particularly impressive - or they can use them as a launch vehicle for cruise missiles. That’s fine for hitting a power plant, but almost no impact on the battlefield.

[marktwain]

Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units.

More fantasy.

I guess that is why Russia was unable to assert air superiority over Ukraine, and why Russia still has to resort to long range missiles to hit Ukrainian cities.

Russian apologists will deny this, or simply say "Russia is being restrained in its reponse".

It is hard to reconcile facts on the ground with the myth of Russia as a land super power, without resorting to outlandish conspiracy theories or complicated explanations of future, super-duper successes.

[Renfrew]

“When the last time you read or seen a video of Ukrainian aircraft attacking a position, cover for operations, etc.?”

A few days ago.

Watch Ukrainian Bombers Bullseye A Russian Tank:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/27/watch-ukrainian-bombers-bullseye-a-russian-tank/?sh=5b2faff578fe

[cranked]

Woot!?

Ukraine has a few aircraft left.

Party time!!

[Boogieman]

“You mean like virtually all of Ukraine’s air force has?”

Yet Ukraine apparently doesn’t need an air force to kick Russia’s butt. And Russia’s air force can’t operate more than a few miles inside of Ukraine’s borders, so they are for all intents and purposes useless. And they’re running out of qualified pilots as well, since we know they are putting 63 year old generals back on combat missions, only to let those pilots die as well.

Oh well, maybe they can beg Iran or Syria to lend them some pilots once they run out.

[hflynn]

Russian It will be over in days Ukraine War heads into 2nd winter.

Russia nears completion of 2nd mobilization and plans for a 3rd mobilization.

Russia boasts of hitting targets all over the Ukraine while Kaputin frantically searches for someone, anyone, even someone with dementia, to broker a peace deal before he gets Gaddafied.

[Boogieman]

“More fantasy.”

If fantasy could win wars, we’d all be speaking Russian by now.

Unfortunately for them, what works on poorly moderated internet forums doesn’t actually work in the real world.

[cranked]

Kind of what Zelenskyyidiot doing right?

Incessantly begging, groveling, pleading for more tanks, planes, military hardware, munitions, money, and pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Russia.......

[Renfrew]

The basic questions for this war are:

1) How much of Ukrainian territory does Russia need to control to force Ukraine to surrender? How large a force and how many casualties would it take to get there.

vs.

2) How high a level of conscription and how many casualties can Russia sustain without the people overthrowing the Putin regime.

[Boogieman]

True, you can degrade the enemy’s will to fight, but I didn’t mention that, since it’s not going to happen in a situation where you have placed the invaded country in existential peril. So the Russians screwed themselves on that count as well.

[Boogieman]

“Incessantly begging, groveling, pleading for more tanks, planes, military hardware, munitions, money, and pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Russia.......”

And that little sniveling beggar is actually winning. How pathetic is Russia if all one has to do to defeat them is be very good at begging for sympathy from other countries?

[Magnum44]

Mr Johnson clearly has the power of clairvoyance.

We have been told for almost 9 months now that Russian victory is just weeks away. No one knows.

Russia supposedly had a numerically and lethally superior fighting force at the start of this, one that NATO should fear. That facade has been shattered. Are they still a force to be taken seriously? Yes, but not what they were previously thought to be.

All this talk about the latest missile strikes...Any historian on the art of war knows that logistics wins wars. Russia has shown they have logistics challenges, and that is a weakness that will cost them if they can not fix those. This is why the missile strikes really dont mean as much as some think. Ukraine still holds the initiative on the ground.

Historians also know that you dont conquer a country from the air. Missiles and air power can shape a battlefield, or they can damage an enemy that you have no intent to take territory from. But ultimately, to take a country or land, you have to put boots on the ground. Repeating from the previous paragraph, here is where Ukraine, not russia maintains the initiative at present. Missile strikes on electrical grids, infrastructure, or civilians do not alter the momentum of the troops on the lines unless it cuts logistics to those troops.

Putin's moves in the last few days show desperation, not strategic grandness. Ukraine, on the other hand, clearly hit a strategic soft spot on the Crimea bridge. Ukraine understands how cutting that supply line will leave Putin's army hanging out to dry.