Posted on 10/04/2022 5:08:38 AM PDT by dennisw
Expert argues THIS is how the war could end
Putin has spent the last week ramping up his war in Ukraine, from 300,000 conscripts to nuclear threats But his bluster is aimed at hiding the fact that Russia is losing the war, as Ukraine recaptures territory
Alp Sevimlisoy, of Atlantic Council think-tank == about what Russian defeat could look like Putin would not survive the defeat, he argues, while Russia itself could break up leaving the West competing with China over the spoils and NATO in a face-off with Beijing
Land grabs, hundreds of thousand of conscripts thrown on to the front lines, and a nuke for anyone who dares stand in his way: Vladimir Putin has spent the past week doubling down on his war in Ukraine.
But his bluster belies a simple fact: Russia is losing the war, and he knows it.
The despot is desperate. His army is in tatters, his battleplans shot, he's burning through his cash reserves at an unsustainable rate, and winter is looming. Meanwhile Ukraine's army continues to advance across the country, giving Kyiv a viable path to victory.
According to Alp Sevimlisoy - millennium fellow at think-tank Atlantic Council - that would mean Putin being deposed, Russia itself breaking apart, and NATO in a face-off with China over the spoils.
The West must begin preparing for that eventuality now, he adds, otherwise it will open the door for Beijing to muscle into regions such as Siberia, central Asia, Africa and South America where it already has toe-holds but will see opportunities as Russian power fades.
'We have to move into vacuums, seek to exert influence, and then we have to face up to the People's Republic of China. China is a globally-connected superpower, and we have to combat them effectively,' he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
“Ramzan Kadyrov might declare Chechnya independent. Right now Putin is sending Chechnya subsidies to keep them in the Russian orbit.”
For sure Chechnya will defy Moscow after Putin is gone. Putin bribes them with 3 billion dollars a year. Lord know how much Ramzan Kadyrove skims from this.
“Hahhahha Putin getting kicked out seems to upset you. The end of Putin means the end of the Ukraine war.”
Agree, as I suspect the Ukraine War will end quickly in that case, and if the West cannot deal with how it ends, then I suspect that things won’t go so well for the West.
I used to think that Russia would be able to do whatever they wanted in Ukraine until I saw that their annual military is only $68B. That isn’t enough to keep foreign soil which is being protected by an equal amount of weapons.
My fear is that Putin will not be content with a loss and will end up using nukes.
I predict china taking over Russia Russia has the food and fuel that china is short on. The offer they made to Russia to help is a ruse to send in troops and equipt without being hassled. Once in place it is all over.
That is of course if Putin does not nuke the world as he said he would.
No one gives a shit about breaking up Russia. Not until Putin invaded Ukraine. The ethnic Russian birthrate is pathetic, while the Muslim birthrate is high. Do the math for a Russian crack up.
Russia has the highest or one of the highest abortion rates. And Russian Muslims never get them.
This garbage is able to be posted here but articles from Zero Hedge are forbidden?
Very strange.
Well.. that's not a high bar to cross. Biden will be lucky to be around at that time. But we'll see about Putin.
‘The United States has broken the second rule of war. That is: don’t go fighting with your land army on the mainland in Asia. Rule one is, don’t march on Moscow. I developed those two rules myself.’
Montgomery on the American war in Vietnam, ‘New York Times’, 1968
To me, the most likely next step if Putin falls and is replaced by those willing to end the war would be the West trying to de-escalate things as fast as possible. The carrot of peace and restoration of at least some economic relations rather than war.
Maybe Chechnya would take the opportunity to break away, but I really don't see Russia falling apart on any kind of large scale.
“After Putin is deposed, the question is... will he go the way of Ceausescu or Mussolini?”
Either way is fine by me. But a combo with some drama and fireworks would be nice. Add in some of what Qaddafi got, which was gruesome (anal) He deserves whatever death, for sending young men off to die for Putin as Tsar fantasies.
“No one gives a shit about breaking up Russia. Not until Putin invaded Ukraine.”
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/could-russia-breakup-after-putin.html
“Russia has the highest or one of the highest abortion rates.”
Try looking at a source that isn’t 20 years old. They have lower rates than most of Europe now.
The evidence at present is that China is failing as a state as the result of the inability to control a Frankenstein real estate monster imbedded throughout the total economy. The problem is compounded by an effort to totally eliminate Covid by locking down tens of millions of citizens.
He’s first last and always a communist
Not a fan of any communist here or there
I like the idea of breaking up Russia, also taking all it’s nuclear weapons also
Kadyrov has an army. I don't think the morale is high enough in the Russian army for them to fight in the next Chechen war. If the next Russian leader is more like Gorbachev or Yeltsin, it would be perfect time for them to make their move.
I agree. A firing squad followed by a big celebratory gala on Red Square would be quite the sendoff for the likes of Putin.
“He’s first last and always a communist”
He certainly was a Communist, but what makes him one today? I don’t know of any statements to that effect, or policies, unless one considers a statement saying something like “Stalin was a strong leader” a Communist - but then didn’t Trump say the same about the current leaders in China and North Korea?
attractive ideas exist in abundance. Implementation is always the problem.
I believe the decision has already been made and agreed to by the powers that be.
Russia is being destroyed by the sanctions that essentially eliminate economic activity adequate to support the populations in Moscow and St Petersburg. The result will be chaos on a scale that will take a very long time to over come.
There is agreement that an end to Russia is required and the problem be eliminated for the foreseeable future
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