Posted on 10/04/2022 5:08:38 AM PDT by dennisw
Expert argues THIS is how the war could end
Putin has spent the last week ramping up his war in Ukraine, from 300,000 conscripts to nuclear threats But his bluster is aimed at hiding the fact that Russia is losing the war, as Ukraine recaptures territory
Alp Sevimlisoy, of Atlantic Council think-tank == about what Russian defeat could look like Putin would not survive the defeat, he argues, while Russia itself could break up leaving the West competing with China over the spoils and NATO in a face-off with Beijing
Land grabs, hundreds of thousand of conscripts thrown on to the front lines, and a nuke for anyone who dares stand in his way: Vladimir Putin has spent the past week doubling down on his war in Ukraine.
But his bluster belies a simple fact: Russia is losing the war, and he knows it.
The despot is desperate. His army is in tatters, his battleplans shot, he's burning through his cash reserves at an unsustainable rate, and winter is looming. Meanwhile Ukraine's army continues to advance across the country, giving Kyiv a viable path to victory.
According to Alp Sevimlisoy - millennium fellow at think-tank Atlantic Council - that would mean Putin being deposed, Russia itself breaking apart, and NATO in a face-off with China over the spoils.
The West must begin preparing for that eventuality now, he adds, otherwise it will open the door for Beijing to muscle into regions such as Siberia, central Asia, Africa and South America where it already has toe-holds but will see opportunities as Russian power fades.
'We have to move into vacuums, seek to exert influence, and then we have to face up to the People's Republic of China. China is a globally-connected superpower, and we have to combat them effectively,' he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Spain has gone to a regional autonomy model that has reduced much of the intensity for independence. It continues but isnt quite what it was.
Catalonia has a very big problem as far as independence goes, because throughout the 20th century it attracted millions of migrants from elsewhere in Spain, as Catalunya was an economic powerhouse of the country. On the whole these people dont want an independent Catalunya.
On the occasion of the last Catalan independence referendum there were large and noisy demos, in Barcelona, of people who wanted to remain Spanish.
This is a complex subject, but at this point its likely that ethnic Catalans (however defined) are a minority in their own country.
The Basques arent in such a position, though they were and are also an economic powerhouse. The general political program can be summarized as independence “eventually”, but in the meantime the gameplan is to negotiate even greater autonomy.
Abortion numbers are nearly 20 years old...try again.
Nevertheless, the question ‘after Putin what?’ needs to be asked and planned for.
Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan - why start now?
Just not in Ukraine...or Scotland, Catalonia, etc...got it.
Putin will not go quietly into exile nor will he retire to a Black Sea dacha. What does that leave?
Can’t Russia is squeamish on facts
The recent referenda in Ukraine were ridiculously bogus so no, the Russian-reported results should not be taken as a fair representation of the sentiments of those who actually live/lived there.
But on the flip side, if you support self-determination, then why shouldn't Russia have granted Chechnya its independence? Instead, it fought two brutal wars to repress the desire of the people of Chechnya for their own country.
I am never pro-Muslim, but in this case I would love to see a Chechen rebellion after Putin is deposed. Putin-Kadyrove have a personal understanding plus a 3 billion dollar bribe to Chechnya each year.
Who comes after Putin will not have this man to man understanding with Kadyrov.
You are right. Putin made his name putting down Chechnya like a rabid dog in 1999 onward. This was done with old Russian army. Obviously, today’s Rus army is incapable of repeating this.
“Abortion numbers are nearly 20 years old...try again.”
You know all about Russia... So what stats do you have for current Russian abortion numbers? You know they are among the highest in the world, while yr zero-hero Vlad rambles on about the Satanic West.
Read Tom Clancy’s book:
“The Bear and the Dragon”
The Chinese invade Siberia to steal a recent discovery of both oil and diamonds. The Russians join NATO. NATO join the fight to defeat the Chinese.
It was written before the everyone new what a unmanned drone or anti personal cluster bombs were.
I'm not sure how impressive that really was. The first war last 18 months, and ended in a ceasefire rather than a true Russian victory. The second war lasted for nearly ten years before the Russians finally won. And we're talking about a country of 150 million versus a country of less than two million.
Russia
China.
I did mention Chechnya, but what are the other places “like” Chechnya that would try to break away militarily?
It saddens me to see this.
One of Trump’s great accomplishments was to question the foreign policy apparatus’ drives for war in Syria and war against Russia.
So you admit to being a pro-globohomo. That doesn't surprise me in the least.
https://sonar21.com/premonitions-by-helmholtz-smith/
Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. I’m reminded of a comment by Gonzalo Lira that Russia should just make the war boring to Americans.
The economic effects of the boomeranging sanctions are inexorably tightening in Europe. We’re now hearing about possible bank collapses and reading cheerful pieces on how to keep mold out of cold damp houses. With Nordstream out of contention. no improvement is visible. Time is on Russia’s side. At some point the European population will have had enough. Protests are growing. The overwhelming rejection in the German parliament of increased support for Ukraine points this way.
America is better off but is also feeling the boomerang. Inflation is rising and what will happen to gasoline prices (a huge concern) when they stop draining the Strategic Oil Reserve? And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.
WESTERN ARMS RUNNING OUT
The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine. A CNBC report speaks of America being out of 155mm guns and ammunition (manufacturers are being sought); it has already sent ten years’ production of Javelins! The latest HIMARS “sent” haven’t been built yet.
Similar stories from Europe. The available stock of ex-Soviet equipment is gone – 28 (“modernized” 20 years ago) T55 tanks scrounged from Slovenia are the latest “wonder weapon”.
The West does not have the industrial capacity to sustain modern war. Everything that has been sent to Ukraine so far has been from existing stocks. Western militaries must either start cannibalizing their standing armies or stop. Then what? Western weapons made the September offensive possible.
###
PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?
In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.
One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.
More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.
The Rus army won in Chechnya, only by leveling Grozny. This was their way of rooting out (killing off) the Chechen guerilla resistance. What brutal wars.
During the first war, when Rus armor and troops entered Grozny they were slaughtered classic guerrilla style. By trapping the Rus armored column in a street. Killing off the first and last armored vehicles to block any=all Rus exits. Then firing down RPGs and machine guns from the apartments above.
A real turkey shoot by the clever Chechens.
>>India is the buffer to China
There are the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush, and Burma in the way.
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