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Hurricane Ian
NHC/NOAA ^ | 23 September 2022 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.


Mash image to enlarge

Public Advisories

NHC Discussion

Buoy Data

Tropical Tidbits


Hebert's Boxes


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricaneian; ian; nautinurse; officialianthread; tropical; tropicalstorm; uhoh; weather
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To: rarestia

Yep same in the keys. Was down in KW today and heading back to MM 38 every gas station had lines. Not sunshine key. Pulled right up and topped off. 3rd


181 posted on 09/23/2022 6:18:03 PM PDT by VastRWCon (Fake News")
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Tropical Storm Ian...

1100 PM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 385 MI SE of Kingston Jamaica
About 680 MI ESE of Grand Cayman
Max Sustained Winds...40 MPH
Moving...WNW at 12 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1005 MB

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
from the center.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

182 posted on 09/23/2022 7:57:45 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse

European Model has Ian just west of Miami.


183 posted on 09/23/2022 8:32:50 PM PDT by Chgogal (Welcome to Fuhrer Biden's Weaponized Fascist Banana Republic! It's the road to hell.)
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To: rodguy911
the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between
days 2 and 3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward
western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from SHIPS are showing
a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds during the next 3 days, and if that
transpires, Ian could be stronger than what's shown in the official forecast.
The storm is not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening,
and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
while approaching the west coast of Florida.

184 posted on 09/23/2022 8:34:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: Chgogal

Watching the individual model runs is like watching ping pong. I follow the trends and alignment of the spaghetti models group, rather than a single model, single run. There will be improved alignment and confidence Sunday.


185 posted on 09/23/2022 8:45:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse

European model is said to be most accurate. Time will tell.


186 posted on 09/23/2022 8:47:09 PM PDT by Chgogal (Welcome to Fuhrer Biden's Weaponized Fascist Banana Republic! It's the road to hell.)
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To: Chgogal

Who said? Each of the major forecast models has strengths and weaknesses.


187 posted on 09/23/2022 8:49:47 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse

Always look forward to your information , Verrrry informative keep up good work. Lots of Prayers going your way.🙏🙏🙏🙏


188 posted on 09/23/2022 9:07:04 PM PDT by easternsky
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To: NautiNurse
I can't remember. It may have been Bastardi or my weather guy who retired last year Local 10, abc Miami Dade and Broward County.

https://www.aerisweather.com/blog/2021/04/18/will-a-new-gfs-weather-model-upgrade-close-the-gap-with-the-european-model/

https://featurescider.com/qa/is-the-european-or-gfs-model-more-accurate.html

https://windy.app/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-differences-accuracy.html

https://www.timesmojo.com/which-forecast-model-is-most-accurate/

Just in case you get bored. ; )

189 posted on 09/23/2022 9:11:09 PM PDT by Chgogal (Welcome to Fuhrer Biden's Weaponized Fascist Banana Republic! It's the road to hell.)
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To: easternsky

Thank you for checking in here. Your kind sentiments are appreciated.


190 posted on 09/23/2022 9:20:44 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse; MinuteGal; M Kehoe

My sisters and I live right next to the Gulf, north of Tampa on the west coast of FL. During hurricane Irma, we were evacuated to a high school in Wesley Chapel further inland, and spent 3 days there (the high school had hurricane shutters). We slept on cots in the biology room, lol. Back to school we were.

There were about 20 of us in the room, and it actually evolved into almost a party atmosphere. We had a good time and spirits were high. Not much food to be had though. When we finally made it back to our condo association post hurricane, there was very little damage. Mostly a small amount of downed tree branches, and a few carport roofs were partially ripped up. We were fortunate as there are canals of water throughout the area we live in. It’s beautiful here though, minus the occasional hurricane scare.


191 posted on 09/24/2022 1:07:49 AM PDT by flaglady47 (Trump in 2024 - MAGA Man and Swamp Destroyer)
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To: NautiNurse

This one has our attention. Current track has us in the northern part of the path of the eye. We’re all block construction, not worried about the structure, but here’s hoping these hurricane straps do what they’re supposed to do.

And here’s hoping that they’re right about the intensity prediction. I’ve always said we’d stick out up to a small 3. This is getting into uncomfortable territory.


192 posted on 09/24/2022 2:06:53 AM PDT by rarestia (“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.” -Hamilton)
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To: NautiNurse
Amazing how that works. Unfortunately, Fla Bay is full of 90 degree water as is much of nearshore waters of the Keys,never good for storm formation.Hopefully the eye will never get anywhere near us on this one.But, you never know.
I'm guessing the weather conditions that kept many storms from forming earlier in the season appear to be easing. YO gotta wonder how many more there will be after Ian.
193 posted on 09/24/2022 2:51:40 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
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To: VastRWCon

Getting ready to head to Islamorada in a few minutes. I’ll see if our stations are busy.


194 posted on 09/24/2022 2:56:41 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
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To: NautiNurse
It's worth noting too that the RI indices from SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be stronger than what's shown in the official forecast.

You must have been reading my mind! Exactly what I was wondering. How big can this thing get? If conditions are ripe enough who knows 4 or 5?

I would hate to be the one trying to put all the variables together on this thing and then making an educated guess.THat's about as hard as it gets.

195 posted on 09/24/2022 3:06:55 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
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To: flaglady47

Good story. You were fortunate to have a pleasant experience at the shelter. Perhaps the school will allow you to bring your own snacks if you need to return for this storm?


196 posted on 09/24/2022 3:10:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: rodguy911

Taking it one storm at a time. This one is looking very ominous for Tampa Bay.


197 posted on 09/24/2022 3:25:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse
"Taking it one storm at a time. This one is looking very ominous for Tampa Bay."

Me too. Early morning check-in.

Keep up the good work.

198 posted on 09/24/2022 3:32:01 AM PDT by blam
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To: All

Just passed the marlin gas station no cars,one at the next one and just me at Tinys in Islamorda. Lots of cars leaving the Keys however, this storm may empty out the keys from the look of it.


199 posted on 09/24/2022 4:18:52 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
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To: NautiNurse
As I recall you were in that vicinity?
Huge population between Tampa,St. Pete and Clearwater.
200 posted on 09/24/2022 4:20:19 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
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