the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between
days 2 and 3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward
western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from SHIPS are showing
a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds during the next 3 days, and if that
transpires, Ian could be stronger than what's shown in the official forecast.
The storm is not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening,
and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
while approaching the west coast of Florida.
You must have been reading my mind! Exactly what I was wondering. How big can this thing get? If conditions are ripe enough who knows 4 or 5?
I would hate to be the one trying to put all the variables together on this thing and then making an educated guess.THat's about as hard as it gets.