Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Mash image to enlarge
Hebert's Boxes
Yep same in the keys. Was down in KW today and heading back to MM 38 every gas station had lines. Not sunshine key. Pulled right up and topped off. 3rd
1100 PM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 385 MI SE of Kingston Jamaica
About 680 MI ESE of Grand Cayman
Max Sustained Winds...40 MPH
Moving...WNW at 12 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1005 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
from the center.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
European Model has Ian just west of Miami.
the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between
days 2 and 3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward
western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from SHIPS are showing
a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds during the next 3 days, and if that
transpires, Ian could be stronger than what's shown in the official forecast.
The storm is not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening,
and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
while approaching the west coast of Florida.
Watching the individual model runs is like watching ping pong. I follow the trends and alignment of the spaghetti models group, rather than a single model, single run. There will be improved alignment and confidence Sunday.
European model is said to be most accurate. Time will tell.
Who said? Each of the major forecast models has strengths and weaknesses.
Always look forward to your information , Verrrry informative keep up good work. Lots of Prayers going your way.🙏🙏🙏🙏
https://featurescider.com/qa/is-the-european-or-gfs-model-more-accurate.html
https://windy.app/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-differences-accuracy.html
https://www.timesmojo.com/which-forecast-model-is-most-accurate/
Just in case you get bored. ; )
Thank you for checking in here. Your kind sentiments are appreciated.
My sisters and I live right next to the Gulf, north of Tampa on the west coast of FL. During hurricane Irma, we were evacuated to a high school in Wesley Chapel further inland, and spent 3 days there (the high school had hurricane shutters). We slept on cots in the biology room, lol. Back to school we were.
There were about 20 of us in the room, and it actually evolved into almost a party atmosphere. We had a good time and spirits were high. Not much food to be had though. When we finally made it back to our condo association post hurricane, there was very little damage. Mostly a small amount of downed tree branches, and a few carport roofs were partially ripped up. We were fortunate as there are canals of water throughout the area we live in. It’s beautiful here though, minus the occasional hurricane scare.
This one has our attention. Current track has us in the northern part of the path of the eye. We’re all block construction, not worried about the structure, but here’s hoping these hurricane straps do what they’re supposed to do.
And here’s hoping that they’re right about the intensity prediction. I’ve always said we’d stick out up to a small 3. This is getting into uncomfortable territory.
Getting ready to head to Islamorada in a few minutes. I’ll see if our stations are busy.
You must have been reading my mind! Exactly what I was wondering. How big can this thing get? If conditions are ripe enough who knows 4 or 5?
I would hate to be the one trying to put all the variables together on this thing and then making an educated guess.THat's about as hard as it gets.
Good story. You were fortunate to have a pleasant experience at the shelter. Perhaps the school will allow you to bring your own snacks if you need to return for this storm?
Taking it one storm at a time. This one is looking very ominous for Tampa Bay.
Me too. Early morning check-in.
Keep up the good work.
Just passed the marlin gas station no cars,one at the next one and just me at Tinys in Islamorda. Lots of cars leaving the Keys however, this storm may empty out the keys from the look of it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.