Posted on 09/20/2022 8:04:23 PM PDT by Dr. Franklin
Meanwhile, a much simpler model may be able to answer some of the questions about the Russia-Ukraine war, such as why the Russians were so ineffective and what will likely happen as the war continues. This simple combat model is based on the Lanchester equations, which were developed in 1916. The Lanchester equations consist of a series of differential equations that approximate the rate of combat losses for two opposing armies. Although somewhat basic, these equations have been successfully used over the last century to model attrition warfare, similar to the conflict in Ukraine.
...
When the differential equations are solved, they indicate that the Russians had a strong advantage at the start of the war. Indeed, they destroyed a number of Ukrainian targets during the first few weeks. However, their effectiveness continually diminished as the war progressed at a rate much faster than the Ukrainian forces...
The models further indicate that at approximately six months, the war would change as the Russians would lose their numerical advantage. This coincides well with the shift in the war with the Ukrainians seizing back large amounts of territory. It would also explain the Kremlin’s strong push to recruit 50,000 new soldiers to replace their combat losses.
These models also provide insight into the likely outcome of the Russian plan to field new “volunteer” battalions. Since these troops will be even less trained than the Russians forces currently in Ukraine, they will likely continue the use of unaimed fires. As a result, the surge in soldiers will see a similar trend where they achieve initial successes but long-term failures. Indeed, the models would indicate that the Russians’ best course of action would be to fully withdraw from Ukraine, extensive training, and a reinvasion a later date.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Ukraine ping!
The way this is written, it gives the impression that Russia started the war with a large, well-trained army. But attrition has greatly reduced this. Now, it appears, Russia is desperately trying to recruit fresh soldiers to replenish their ranks. But, these new soldiers will be untrained, and will therefore likely be killed quickly in the on-going war.
It’s not clear to me why the article doesn’t seem to recognize any similar Ukrainian losses.
Ukraine, on the other hand, still seems to retain its initial army. Now staffed with veterans, well-trained and experienced, having suffered no such comparable losses. And, Ukraine now has lots of advanced weapons from the US which their veteran soldiers can use to wipe out the new Russian recruits.
Seems like a rosy picture.
“Meanwhile, the Ukies are fighting smarter with more accurate weapons”
Not to mention far higher morale and motivation, which increases with each conquest. Each Ukrainian on the battlefield knows this is for their lives, families and national survival. The Russians, on the other hand, are fighting for meager salaries and to stay out of prison.
Ukrainians excell in all 3.
Well no. If the annexation proceeds well for them, they can engage all of their military...instead of just paid mercenaries and volunteers.
Being a SMO meant they could not use the Russian military, unless they volunteered.
Things will now change dramatically. Belarus is preparing troops and we might see them from other CTSO members. It us after all a treaty for alliances.
This war could end in a few weeks after Russia is attacked. Erdogan thinks Russia will take off the gloves and wrap it up now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qskLuWb0GEM
Just one of many that reported on these leaked Ukrainian documents put all over the net. This was from some time back so no telling how bad it is now for Ukraine that has western “volunteers” fighting beside them.
Unconfirmed leaked data from the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Staff:
- The AFU are only 43-48% complete;
- medical workers at the limit of their strength: the seriously wounded are transported to Europe;
- small arms and bulletproof vests are not enough;
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status/1555546218608365568
This is backed up by other reports.
And Ukraine reportedly lost up to 12k soldiers a week and a half taking an area the size of Rhode Island while Russia has taken more land recently in Southern Ukraine.
Ukraine has lost at least 50% of its regular, trained people (no doubt more since the leaks), and had no choice but to go all-in on an offensive attack.
Ukrainians aren’t the ones actually making inroads into the 1/5 of Ukraine that Russia has taken; they’re cannon fodder. So-called “volunteers” in Ukraine are responsible for Ukraine taking a paltry 1k sq miles of 120,000 sq. miles, and Democracy Now and The Guardian report Ukraine only took back 1k sq miles.
Interesting. It would be interesting and informative to see these formulas calculated for the first Gulf War when Bush Sr was President ….. I think in 1990.
You have been indoctrinated by western media.
Russian troops have encountered Ukrainians sealed into tanks.
Usually newbie troops.
The conscripts make the equivalent of $14 a month, which is often stolen by the NCOs, who abuse them to the point of torture.
That qualitative/professional component is huge.
I have friends in Russia who convinced a Dr to list their son as having a heart defect, years ago. So that he never had to go to war.
Almost 20 years ago. Bet they are pleased now.
Nobody likes war. I am sure Russians don’t want to go either.
Russia has only been able to use volunteers and paid mercenaries under the terms of SMO.
In a few weeks that could change.
Average pay is about $1300 /month. It goes farther there.
I believe so. Twenty years ago that was pretty much the normal way to do business in Russia.
I wish we could have seen the speech this evening.
The defense guy in Russia keeps saying there will not be a full mobilization.
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