Ukraine ping!
The way this is written, it gives the impression that Russia started the war with a large, well-trained army. But attrition has greatly reduced this. Now, it appears, Russia is desperately trying to recruit fresh soldiers to replenish their ranks. But, these new soldiers will be untrained, and will therefore likely be killed quickly in the on-going war.
It’s not clear to me why the article doesn’t seem to recognize any similar Ukrainian losses.
Ukraine, on the other hand, still seems to retain its initial army. Now staffed with veterans, well-trained and experienced, having suffered no such comparable losses. And, Ukraine now has lots of advanced weapons from the US which their veteran soldiers can use to wipe out the new Russian recruits.
Seems like a rosy picture.
“Meanwhile, the Ukies are fighting smarter with more accurate weapons”
Not to mention far higher morale and motivation, which increases with each conquest. Each Ukrainian on the battlefield knows this is for their lives, families and national survival. The Russians, on the other hand, are fighting for meager salaries and to stay out of prison.
Ukrainians excell in all 3.
Well no. If the annexation proceeds well for them, they can engage all of their military...instead of just paid mercenaries and volunteers.
Being a SMO meant they could not use the Russian military, unless they volunteered.
Things will now change dramatically. Belarus is preparing troops and we might see them from other CTSO members. It us after all a treaty for alliances.
This war could end in a few weeks after Russia is attacked. Erdogan thinks Russia will take off the gloves and wrap it up now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qskLuWb0GEM
Interesting. It would be interesting and informative to see these formulas calculated for the first Gulf War when Bush Sr was President ….. I think in 1990.
Concerning the Lanchester Equations which are not full-proof by any measure despite their continued use. Example:
“...this research adds to the evidence that Lanchester equations may be too blunt of an instrument
for modeling the attrition of highly aggregated forces. Indeed, it is asking a lot to address most
of the complexities of combat attrition in a model with only a handful (four or five in this paper)
of parameters. The failure to find any good-fitting Lanchester model suggests that it may be
beneficial to look for new approaches to model highly aggregated attrition.”
‘Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes’
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/36736335.pdf
‘The constant fallacy: A persistent logical flaw in applications of Lanchester’s equations’
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0377221794903034
“In this study, Joshua M. Epstein makes two separate contributions. He argues that Lanchester’s equations fail to capture the basic dynamics of warfare and that they offer a fundamentally implausible picture of combat.”
‘The Calculus of Conventional War - Dynamic Analysis without Lanchester Theory’
https://www.brookings.edu/book/the-calculus-of-conventional-war/
More can be provided.
Russia also conscripted a lot of soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk, through their surrogates, that have also taken lots of casualties. Along with the Wagner mercs, they fielded a larger total force
The Ukrainian forces also had additional forces under arms, like their Territorial Defense Force.
This new Russian mobilization likely means that the war will be longer, bloodier and more costly.