Posted on 09/03/2022 10:12:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Russia has been playing this game for months and now it seems to have reached its inevitable outcome. The gas supply flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been completely shut off. Russia claimed this week that it was shutting the gas supply off temporarily in order to do maintenance on the line. Then it claimed it had discovered a problem which prevented it from resuming the supply. No one is being fooled by any of this anymore. Even the German company that built the machines used to pump gas through the pipeline has said Russia’s explanation makes no sense.
The Russian-owned energy giant had been expected to resume the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Saturday after three days of maintenance. But hours before the pipeline was set to reopen, Gazprom said that problems had been found during inspections, and that the pipeline would be closed until they were eliminated. It did not give a timeline for restarting…
In its statement Friday, Gazprom said it found oil leaks around a turbine used to pressurize the pipeline, forcing it to call off the restart. The German company Siemens Energy, the maker of the turbine, cast doubt on that account. “As the manufacturer of the turbines, we can only state that such a finding is not a technical reason for stopping operation,” the company said late Friday. Siemens also said there were additional turbines available that could be used to keep the pipeline operating.
The Times has a helpful graph that shows how Russia has been manipulating the supply of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline since the invasion of Ukraine:
As you can see, the supply was cut in June and since then Russia has twice turned the supply off claiming it needed to do maintenance. The most likely motive for this decision to keep the supply turned off is an effort by the G7 to limit how much Russia can earn from oil sales:
Top officials from the world’s leading advanced economies agreed on Friday to move ahead with a plan to cap the price of Russian oil, accelerating an ambitious effort to limit how much money Russia can earn from each barrel of crude it sells on the global market.
Finance ministers from the Group of 7 nations said they were firming up details of a price cap, with the aim of both depressing the price of global oil and reducing critical revenue that President Vladimir V. Putin is relying on to finance Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The untested plan has been pushed by the Biden administration as way of keeping sanctions pressure on Russia while minimizing the impact on a global economy that has been saddled with soaring energy and food prices this year…
The discussions around the plan reflect the way in which energy has become both a weapon and a source of leverage in the battle over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The United States, Britain and other Western nations have influence over Russia’s oil exports and the way they are shipped around the world since crude is primarily transported on ships that rely heavily on insurance and other financial support from the West. The cap threatens Russia’s access to those ships unless it sells at cut-rate prices.
So the G7 is trying to limit the rates the world will pay for Russian oil and Putin responded by cutting of Russian gas, probably to suggest that he could (and would be willing to) do the same with the oil supply.
Russia could do this, perhaps claiming some technical problem prevented them from transporting oil to ships. But at some point this seems likely to harm Russia at least as much as it harms Europe and the US. Oil and gas make up about half of Russia’s exports. Cutting those exports abruptly will have a substantial impact on their economy. China might be willing to pick up some of the slack but in the past China has been unwilling to pay anything above a discount price.
It seems to me that Putin has pulled the gas supply lever as far as he can. It hasn’t worked so far but he’s clearly relying on the economic pressure building to a point that Germans will decide supporting Ukraine is too costly. This week, Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock tried to address those concerns but wound up handing Russia an opening when she said she intended to support Ukraine “no matter what German voters think.”
Clear message: Foreign Minister of Germany @ABaerbock on her determination to stand with #Ukraine regardless of the political turbulence that lies ahead. This being the full version, not the manipulated snippets spread around by Russian disinfo 🇺🇦🇩🇪🇺🇦
pic.twitter.com/zWdtWMSoJ1— Boris Ruge (@RugeBoris) September 3, 2022
“We are facing now a winter time where we will be challenged as democratic politicians,” she said. She continued, “People will go in the street and say we cannot pay our energy prices. And I will say, yes I know so we’ll help you with social measures but I don’t want to say then we stop with sanctions against Russia…The sanctions will stay in wintertime even if it gets really tough for politicians.”
In context she’s saying that she doesn’t want momentary discontent over energy prices to result in Russia getting away with invading and destroying an a neighboring country but her comments are, ironically, being labeled as shockingly non-responsive to citizens by Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.
🟥 Lavrov about Baerbock
Lavrov:
"The Russophobic obsession manifests itself in everything. Yesterday, as I read, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said:
'Yes, our citizens are suffering, but they will have to suffer because we will definitely support Ukraine.' pic.twitter.com/jQCxOJuZAL
— Holy Troller (@IscoPar5) September 2, 2022
Sergey Lavrov is the spokesperson for an authoritarian regime run by a man who intends to rule for life. It’s a country where critics of the regime are arrested, poisoned or simply fall out of windows. He’s really not in a position to suggest democratic representatives in other nations should be more responsive to the wishes of their citizens. And yet, there are lots of people on Twitter calling Baerbock an authoritarian and somehow missing the bigger picture here.
You had an infinite amount of space to post your thoughts dennis. You chose two words and you couldn't even make sense with them.
“The actual reality is that Russian Vladimer Putin in an effort to control Europe, shut off Russian gas”
The summary here is that cheap Russian gas is very actually expensive. BobL says the Germans were addicted to Rus gaz Nord Stream coming in at the crude equivalent of $20 per barrel.
Nord Steam 2 is already built. However, it has never been used because Germany refused final certification. Kind of like what Mario Cuomo did to the completely built Shoreham nuclear plant in NY
The pipe was completed in Sept 2021 and was awaiting final certification. It’s just sitting there doing nothing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2
Yep. and....
Putin somehow failed to realize that Europe existed, thrived even, for hundreds of years prior to the availability oy Russian gas.
Why would I waste more time with U/ clown? It is Labor Day Weekend.
Warmongering globalists have confirmed that they are still for the Suicide Sanctions and are willing to freeze as many Europeans as necessary to continue the pretense that they are Punishing Putin.
The real goal of warmongering globalists, after all, is for as many people of European heritage as possible to suffer and die.
Aramco would wake more money by not helping. Why invest money to lower the price of your product?
And the operational partners and customers are not there. Russia’s case of Dutch disease will prove fatal.
“Saudi Arabian energy giant Aramco has seen its profits jump almost four times, boosted by a rise in oil prices as demand recovers.
The company added that the easing of Covid restrictions, vaccinations, stimulus measures and the return of economic activity had supported results.
Crude oil prices have risen by more than 30% since the start of the year.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58141607
“The goose that laid the golden eggs is dead. Putin did that.”
Seems to me that if things were so bad for Russia right now, Putin would restart the gas flow.
So why doesn’t he?
“It is a sad day when a horrible bunch of America-haters have installed a demented, mean and nasty old criminal as U.S. president and are using him as their sock puppet for a communist takeover.”
Even sadder to have people here spending all their time being mad at Putin, rather than the regime we’re living under.
“You are a walking talking delusion.”
Tell me about it - he ‘claims’ that Natural Gas is 25% of Russia’s GDP. Absolutely CLUELESS.
Chickensoup
Aramco would wake more money by not helping. Why invest money to lower the price of your product?
“Putin is doing these Euro- fairy A-holes a favor. This winter’s cold temperatures will collide them back into reality. Bad Vlad is the disciplinarian they crave and need.”
I’ve said exactly the same - rather than fight-off their Greens, they gave them everything they wanted - even though they knew that the plans of the Greens would DESTROY their countries.
Now the Europe will develop a backbone, and 6 months from now, they will be THANKING PUTIN for leading them out of their energy mess.
“Putin somehow failed to realize that Europe existed, thrived even, for hundreds of years prior to the availability oy Russian gas.”
They didn’t have Greta running energy policy during that time, and the last that I checked, Greta’s disciples are STILL in power in Germany.
“The summary here is that cheap Russian gas is very actually expensive. BobL says the Germans were addicted to Rus gaz Nord Stream coming in at the crude equivalent of $20 per barrel.”
True, but it was Europe that made Russian gas very expensive. All that Russia wanted was payments in Rubles, so they wouldn’t keep getting their money stolen. Other than that, Europe felt a need to play ‘sanctions games’ with Russia, and lost.
They all joined sanctions against Russia and din’t want to pay in rubles. That is fine, but there are consequences, especially so when your existence relies on the party you laid the sanctions on.
Rather than laying blame, perhaps they should spend money and time getting more self sufficient rather than sending billions to Ukraine and shatting on their own citizens in favor of Ukraine.
“Seems to me that if things were so bad for Russia right now, Putin would restart the gas flow. So why doesn’t he?”
Partly, he is still trying to squeeze some concessions/compliance. He took a gamble that he kind of can’t afford to lose, and is still trying to pull it off, by hoping that the other guy will break first.
But also because he has a face saving propaganda pattern of cutting off the gas, before a customer is fully prepared to leave on their own. Kind of like, “You can’t quit, you’re fired.” That kind of kick on the ass on the way out will make customers less likely to return.
The bottom line is that European customers are stampeding away from Russian supply as fast as they can. No new contracts for Russia, historically large and rapid contracts for competing suppliers (the USA is a big winner). Europeans are spending money hand over fist to build the new infrastructure required - tens of billions of euros committed. Special new laws were passed that pull out all the stops for construction. A pipeline from the port at Willhelmshaven to the gas storage cavern was estimated to be a six year project before the war - now it is on track to be carrying gas by year’s end.
The atrocities uncovered at Bucha (but occurring systematically across occupied Ukraine, by design) turned the stomachs of Western leaders and steeled their spines.
Putin cannot be allowed to win. His aggression cannot be rewarded and must be defeated.
The war crimes prosecutors at The Hague are operating with a blank check. The first charges are expected before the end of this year, but National leaders have already been briefed, and has seen some horrific images of the nightmare world that Putin is seeking to impose.
Putin is a sociopathic long term serial killer, who has expanded into a gigantic mass murder spree. Yes, he is clearly also capable of pushing too far in business and financial dealings.
At this point, turning the gas back on will only get back customers temporarily, until they can physically leave on their own schedule. So Putin is still using the remaining pain that he can still inflict, to try to bully and look strong a little longer. He is under mounting pressures day to day, and the knives are out in Moscow, with high ranking people in jail, falling from windows, and “killing themselves”, along with all members of the family who happen to be home.
Yes, it’s bad, but just turning the gas supply back on is not going to fix it, because it is sputtering out from the demand side. The gas volume (and payment stream) didn’t start dropping until June, so there is a delay until the bills that the gas revenues were paying, go into default.
But there are a mountain of bills that can’t be paid anymore - so they will likely print rubles at a reckless rate for a while, but the underlying real economy has received a shocking blow. Beyond just the direct revenue, all the supporting industries and jobs are going to suffer, as the gas boomtown goes bust.
You were right about Putin being a Gay Clown, who is sexually attracted to young boys.
Facts are stubborn things.
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