“The goose that laid the golden eggs is dead. Putin did that.”
Seems to me that if things were so bad for Russia right now, Putin would restart the gas flow.
So why doesn’t he?
“Seems to me that if things were so bad for Russia right now, Putin would restart the gas flow. So why doesn’t he?”
Partly, he is still trying to squeeze some concessions/compliance. He took a gamble that he kind of can’t afford to lose, and is still trying to pull it off, by hoping that the other guy will break first.
But also because he has a face saving propaganda pattern of cutting off the gas, before a customer is fully prepared to leave on their own. Kind of like, “You can’t quit, you’re fired.” That kind of kick on the ass on the way out will make customers less likely to return.
The bottom line is that European customers are stampeding away from Russian supply as fast as they can. No new contracts for Russia, historically large and rapid contracts for competing suppliers (the USA is a big winner). Europeans are spending money hand over fist to build the new infrastructure required - tens of billions of euros committed. Special new laws were passed that pull out all the stops for construction. A pipeline from the port at Willhelmshaven to the gas storage cavern was estimated to be a six year project before the war - now it is on track to be carrying gas by year’s end.
The atrocities uncovered at Bucha (but occurring systematically across occupied Ukraine, by design) turned the stomachs of Western leaders and steeled their spines.
Putin cannot be allowed to win. His aggression cannot be rewarded and must be defeated.
The war crimes prosecutors at The Hague are operating with a blank check. The first charges are expected before the end of this year, but National leaders have already been briefed, and has seen some horrific images of the nightmare world that Putin is seeking to impose.
Putin is a sociopathic long term serial killer, who has expanded into a gigantic mass murder spree. Yes, he is clearly also capable of pushing too far in business and financial dealings.
At this point, turning the gas back on will only get back customers temporarily, until they can physically leave on their own schedule. So Putin is still using the remaining pain that he can still inflict, to try to bully and look strong a little longer. He is under mounting pressures day to day, and the knives are out in Moscow, with high ranking people in jail, falling from windows, and “killing themselves”, along with all members of the family who happen to be home.
Yes, it’s bad, but just turning the gas supply back on is not going to fix it, because it is sputtering out from the demand side. The gas volume (and payment stream) didn’t start dropping until June, so there is a delay until the bills that the gas revenues were paying, go into default.
But there are a mountain of bills that can’t be paid anymore - so they will likely print rubles at a reckless rate for a while, but the underlying real economy has received a shocking blow. Beyond just the direct revenue, all the supporting industries and jobs are going to suffer, as the gas boomtown goes bust.